Jake Timlin
Saturday's Action
400♦ Colorado Rockies -1 ½ Runs
Fireworks at Coors field, I look for the Rockies to make easy work of Arizona tonight.
With last night’s series opening 5-0 win the Rockies continue to be the hottest team in the league having won 22 of their last 27 games. Well thanks to pitching of Cook tonight I look for the Rockies to continue to dominate.
Aaron Cook hotter than hot is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.75 in his last five starts as the righty has only allowed 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts.
For Arizona, they counter having lost 12 of their last 14 games and throwing Yusmeiro Petit who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.03 in five starts on the season.
Flat out, no way do I see tonight’s game being close as Colorado’s pitching and offense is too good for Arizona to match.
In a blowout, go with the Rockies tonight at home.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Saturday's Action
400♦ Colorado Rockies -1 ½ Runs
Fireworks at Coors field, I look for the Rockies to make easy work of Arizona tonight.
With last night’s series opening 5-0 win the Rockies continue to be the hottest team in the league having won 22 of their last 27 games. Well thanks to pitching of Cook tonight I look for the Rockies to continue to dominate.
Aaron Cook hotter than hot is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.75 in his last five starts as the righty has only allowed 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts.
For Arizona, they counter having lost 12 of their last 14 games and throwing Yusmeiro Petit who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.03 in five starts on the season.
Flat out, no way do I see tonight’s game being close as Colorado’s pitching and offense is too good for Arizona to match.
In a blowout, go with the Rockies tonight at home.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play 5 Dime - COLORADO ROCKIES (Cook) - 1 1/2 Runs over Arizona (Petit)
A lack of better choices has left Arizona in the position of starting Yusmeiro Petit tonight at Colorado. The righthander has been out since May 9 because of an inflamed shoulder and was less than sparkling in his rehab assignment, compiling a 6.89 ERA in five outings, allowing four homers in 15.2 innings. In fact, he was pulled from his most recent start on Tuesday in preparation for his return to the majors after allowing five hits and three runs -- two of which were earned -- in three innings of work.
Prior to landing on the disabled list, Petit had made five starts this season and the Diamondbacks had lost each outing as he allowed 37 baserunners in 22.2 innings with an ERA of 7.55. On of those starts was against the Rockies at home on April 21, a game in which he allowed eight hits and three runs in five innings of work. But the Colorado team Petit faced that day bears little resemblance to the one playing at Coors Field today.
Friday's 5-0 victory in the series opener raised Colorado's record to 22-5 in its last 27 games. Along the way, the Rockies have won six straight and 11 of 13 at home.
Colorado's Aaron Cook has won each of his last five starts, allowing just 31 hits and seven runs over 36 innings for an earned run average of 1.75. He'll be facing an Arizona club that's lost 11 of its last 13, including three in a row, a stretch in which the Diamondbacks have scored a total of two runs, getting shutout twice, lowering their major league-worst batting average to .242.
On the moneyline, Colorado is an overwhelming favorite. But on the Run Line, this game is priced at a virtual pick'em, making the Rockies an attractive wagering opportunity considering their recent run of success, Arizona's losing ways and inability to score, and the choice of starting pitchers by the Diamondbacks.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
Saturday's Play 5 Dime - COLORADO ROCKIES (Cook) - 1 1/2 Runs over Arizona (Petit)
A lack of better choices has left Arizona in the position of starting Yusmeiro Petit tonight at Colorado. The righthander has been out since May 9 because of an inflamed shoulder and was less than sparkling in his rehab assignment, compiling a 6.89 ERA in five outings, allowing four homers in 15.2 innings. In fact, he was pulled from his most recent start on Tuesday in preparation for his return to the majors after allowing five hits and three runs -- two of which were earned -- in three innings of work.
Prior to landing on the disabled list, Petit had made five starts this season and the Diamondbacks had lost each outing as he allowed 37 baserunners in 22.2 innings with an ERA of 7.55. On of those starts was against the Rockies at home on April 21, a game in which he allowed eight hits and three runs in five innings of work. But the Colorado team Petit faced that day bears little resemblance to the one playing at Coors Field today.
Friday's 5-0 victory in the series opener raised Colorado's record to 22-5 in its last 27 games. Along the way, the Rockies have won six straight and 11 of 13 at home.
Colorado's Aaron Cook has won each of his last five starts, allowing just 31 hits and seven runs over 36 innings for an earned run average of 1.75. He'll be facing an Arizona club that's lost 11 of its last 13, including three in a row, a stretch in which the Diamondbacks have scored a total of two runs, getting shutout twice, lowering their major league-worst batting average to .242.
On the moneyline, Colorado is an overwhelming favorite. But on the Run Line, this game is priced at a virtual pick'em, making the Rockies an attractive wagering opportunity considering their recent run of success, Arizona's losing ways and inability to score, and the choice of starting pitchers by the Diamondbacks.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
Trace Adams 1000* - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings (1:10 pm), 500* - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller The Cardinals cooled down the Reds a little with the win last night, and I like them to do it once more this afternoon at Great American Ball Park with Brad Thompson on the hill.
Thompson sports 2 wins this year, and both of those wins have come away from home. Sure, he is not the "ace" of the St. Louis staff, but then again can you trust Micah Owings who seems to pitch well every other start?
Ownings is coming off a 6 inning, 1 run win at Cleveland, but the start before was shellacked for 6 runs in 6 innings in a loss at Toronto.
For the season Owings is 5-7 with a 4.85 ERA.
I will take my chances with Thompson getting some run support, and the Cards getting the "W".
1000♦ - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings
♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦♦
The Marlins are right in the thick of it in the NL East, but the same can be said for the Pirates being right in the thick of it in the NL Central, and Pittsburgh did open the holiday weekend with the 7-4 win last night.
I will give the Bucs the play tonight in the underdog role, as Florida starter Andrew Miller still hasn't figured it out yet, and Pittsburgh did hang a loss on him back on April 20th, as the southpaw allowed 4 runs over his 5 innings of work that night.
Zach Duke has made 3 straight quality starts for Pittsburgh, and the fact is, the Pirates are now 4-0 in this year's season series against the Marlins.
Nice value with the Pirates this afternoon in South Florida.
500♦ - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller
♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------------GL GUYS
I WILL BE GONE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ON MY BOAT UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR SO WISH EVERYBODY LUCK AND A HAPPY JULY 4TH---------------CORK
Thompson sports 2 wins this year, and both of those wins have come away from home. Sure, he is not the "ace" of the St. Louis staff, but then again can you trust Micah Owings who seems to pitch well every other start?
Ownings is coming off a 6 inning, 1 run win at Cleveland, but the start before was shellacked for 6 runs in 6 innings in a loss at Toronto.
For the season Owings is 5-7 with a 4.85 ERA.
I will take my chances with Thompson getting some run support, and the Cards getting the "W".
1000♦ - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings
♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦♦
The Marlins are right in the thick of it in the NL East, but the same can be said for the Pirates being right in the thick of it in the NL Central, and Pittsburgh did open the holiday weekend with the 7-4 win last night.
I will give the Bucs the play tonight in the underdog role, as Florida starter Andrew Miller still hasn't figured it out yet, and Pittsburgh did hang a loss on him back on April 20th, as the southpaw allowed 4 runs over his 5 innings of work that night.
Zach Duke has made 3 straight quality starts for Pittsburgh, and the fact is, the Pirates are now 4-0 in this year's season series against the Marlins.
Nice value with the Pirates this afternoon in South Florida.
500♦ - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller
♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------------GL GUYS
I WILL BE GONE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ON MY BOAT UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR SO WISH EVERYBODY LUCK AND A HAPPY JULY 4TH---------------CORK
Tom Stryker's 4th of July MLB Blowout - 12-2 Run!
Tom has quietly cashed 12 of his last 14 MLB selections and he's stepping out on Saturday with only one MLB best bet. Stryker has zeroed in on a high-octane offense prepared to explode and this solid best bet comes with the support of two incredible money-making team trends. Grab Tom's 4th of July MLB Blowout for $20.
TAMPABAY RAYS
Freddy Wills has $4.00 plays today, maybee he has redsox-250
For some fast cash LMAO
Tom has quietly cashed 12 of his last 14 MLB selections and he's stepping out on Saturday with only one MLB best bet. Stryker has zeroed in on a high-octane offense prepared to explode and this solid best bet comes with the support of two incredible money-making team trends. Grab Tom's 4th of July MLB Blowout for $20.
TAMPABAY RAYS
Freddy Wills has $4.00 plays today, maybee he has redsox-250
For some fast cash LMAO
WUNDERDOG TOTAL
Game: Houston at San Francisco (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +100
Tim Lincecum is rapidly positioning himself as one of the top starters in baseball. He is off an impressive 18-4 season and enters this one at 8-2. When you consider the fact that he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last eight starts, it becomes clear he has some extra special stuff. He has also allowed Houston just six total runs in his last four starts against them. Russ Ortiz has been no slouch either as he has allowed just 19 earned runs in his eight starts on the season and in no game has he allowed more than three. Houston has now played to a 17-5 mark to the under in their last 22 games posted as a dog. The Giants have under madness as well as they are now 25-11-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record. Runs certainly look to be hard to come by here and I'll back the UNDER in this one.
Game: Houston at San Francisco (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +100
Tim Lincecum is rapidly positioning himself as one of the top starters in baseball. He is off an impressive 18-4 season and enters this one at 8-2. When you consider the fact that he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last eight starts, it becomes clear he has some extra special stuff. He has also allowed Houston just six total runs in his last four starts against them. Russ Ortiz has been no slouch either as he has allowed just 19 earned runs in his eight starts on the season and in no game has he allowed more than three. Houston has now played to a 17-5 mark to the under in their last 22 games posted as a dog. The Giants have under madness as well as they are now 25-11-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record. Runs certainly look to be hard to come by here and I'll back the UNDER in this one.
Dave Malinsky Column - The "Bad Beat" Hall of Fame
A very interesting column on this 4th of July posted by Dave Malinsky on his Covers page as he not so fondly reminisces about a couple bad beats he's suffered in the past. Funny read and it goes to show that even the pros can lose in painful fashion. That Rangers/A's OVER loss from 2005 that Malinsky discusses in the column may be the worst beat ever just because of the improbable cicrumstances that led to it.
The “Bad Beat” Hall of Fame - #1 - Dave Malinsky
If there is a silver lining to the kind of dark cloud that Boston’s 11-10 loss at Baltimore on Tuesday night presented, it is the ability to recollect some truly brutal losses from the past, which over time actually becomes a positive experience. Not “at the time”, of course, but “over time”. The existence of “time” in those statements means that there has been survival through the difficult bounces, which ultimately leads to a greater appreciation of what this endeavor is all about. Liken it to wizened old sea captains, and their respect for the salt water that has tossed them around.
When these discussions come up there is usually the quick question of “where does this rate among the all-timers?” that we get in our e-mail box. And Boston’s loss on Tuesday does qualify for Hall of Fame status, largely because of the number of sequences that had to take place for the game to turn around. First there was the rain that took away a couple of innings from John Smoltz, who had worked through the first four frames in an efficient 52 pitches. Then there was the failure of the Red Sox to add to their lead against the Oriole bullpen despite numerous opportunities, with eight of the nine base-runners that they generated against the Baltimore relievers failing to score. And ultimately, of course, there was the complete meltdown by what we believe is the best bullpen in the Major Leagues, with back-to-back 5-run innings being allowed, and all five Red Sox relievers that appeared allowing at least one hit through the cycle.
But where does it rate on the historical charts? Let’s put it in the Top 20, which means “Hall of Fame” status, and possibly even “Top 10”, which would mean “first ballot”. But in terms of the toughest loss ever there has been no change in our charts in over four years, and we doubt that the game atop the list will ever be seriously challenged. So what could be more cathartic on a day like this than to reflect back to May 4th of 2005, and a result that left a permanent scar.
Chan Ho Park and Danny Haren hooked up in the Rangers/A’s matchup that afternoon, and our stuff called for an Over at the 9’s that were out there. So what could be better than to be following the play by play and see that the game was already Over the Total in the top of the 4th inning? The hitting never let up – by the end of the 8th inning there were 23 runs on the board, on 28 hits and 15 walks, with five of the hits leaving the playing confines. Wins do not come much easier than that in professional sports.
Except that we did not win.
You can count the number of rain-outs in Oakland on one hand over the past decade – there is very little rainfall on that side of the Bay in the summer months. And that meant that we were not worrying about the usual nightmare of having an easy Over get eliminated because rain kept the game from going the distance (an out-dated rule, which we will get to in a moment). But then came the 9th inning. The Rangers were retired without scoring, as a light rain began to fall. When Joaquin Benoit went out to the mound in the bottom of the 9th for Texas the rain began to pick up, and the umpires decided to halt play (that is why he shows up in the historical box scores, despite not throwing a pitch – he was officially announced and in the game). Even then there was no reason to worry on our part – it was a Wednesday afternoon, and both teams were off on Thursday, so there was all afternoon and evening to get the final three outs in.
Or so we thought. What we did not know was that while both teams were off on Thursday, the umpiring crew was not. They had a flight to catch to get to their next assignment, and made a decision that neither team complained about since the Rangers were ahead 16-7 – they called the game as “complete”, after only a minimal delay.
We doubt that this one will ever be topped. Winning a baseball play by 14 runs is most rare, and the thought that we could win one by 14 runs and only get a refund is astronomical to happen again. If anything, the wager was penalized for being “too” correct – had the Rangers scored far fewer runs, there would have been a better chance of the game being completed, since Oakland could have made claim to still be in the hunt. And to lose the payout because the umpiring crew had to catch a flight is a rather absurd outcome.
The real culprit, of course, is the archaic house rule concerning baseball Totals. No matter how far a game has gone Over the Total, unless it goes to completion there is no play. That is wrong. We can understand Run Lines being scratched if a game is called early, because there is always a chance of a reversal (even in our example above, Oakland had a chance to turn the Run Line result, albeit a microscopic one). But once a Major League baseball game has gone Over the Total, and the game has gone five innings (or 4.5, if the home team has the lead), the betting result should be etched in stone. There is no possible chance for the outcome to be altered, with the Over bettor having clearly won, and the Under bettor having clearly lost.
We understand why the rules were originally structured the way that they were – in the early days of sports betting, bookmakers could not always be sure that their customers had the correct information in terms of game flows. It was an easy way to avoid disputes. But in these modern times that information is so readily available that there would not be any reason for a dispute to take place. Nor would there be many protests anyway, since an Under bettor knows fully well that their bet was wrong.
This still happens, of course. The same night that we lost that bitter outcome with the Red Sox the White Sox beat Cleveland 11-4 in a game that was called in the middle of the 7th because of rain, and the Marlins beat the Nationals 7-5 in similar fashion. Anyone that had bet either of those games Over had a clear win, and deserved to be paid, while anyone on the Under we have no reason to complain if money was deducted from their account. But the rules stand as they are, until someone is willing to take the next step forward.
For now we will spend part of our day remembering back to that lovely afternoon in Oakland, and a game that will likely hold its special place atop the Bad Beat charts for as long as we will be in action.
A very interesting column on this 4th of July posted by Dave Malinsky on his Covers page as he not so fondly reminisces about a couple bad beats he's suffered in the past. Funny read and it goes to show that even the pros can lose in painful fashion. That Rangers/A's OVER loss from 2005 that Malinsky discusses in the column may be the worst beat ever just because of the improbable cicrumstances that led to it.
The “Bad Beat” Hall of Fame - #1 - Dave Malinsky
If there is a silver lining to the kind of dark cloud that Boston’s 11-10 loss at Baltimore on Tuesday night presented, it is the ability to recollect some truly brutal losses from the past, which over time actually becomes a positive experience. Not “at the time”, of course, but “over time”. The existence of “time” in those statements means that there has been survival through the difficult bounces, which ultimately leads to a greater appreciation of what this endeavor is all about. Liken it to wizened old sea captains, and their respect for the salt water that has tossed them around.
When these discussions come up there is usually the quick question of “where does this rate among the all-timers?” that we get in our e-mail box. And Boston’s loss on Tuesday does qualify for Hall of Fame status, largely because of the number of sequences that had to take place for the game to turn around. First there was the rain that took away a couple of innings from John Smoltz, who had worked through the first four frames in an efficient 52 pitches. Then there was the failure of the Red Sox to add to their lead against the Oriole bullpen despite numerous opportunities, with eight of the nine base-runners that they generated against the Baltimore relievers failing to score. And ultimately, of course, there was the complete meltdown by what we believe is the best bullpen in the Major Leagues, with back-to-back 5-run innings being allowed, and all five Red Sox relievers that appeared allowing at least one hit through the cycle.
But where does it rate on the historical charts? Let’s put it in the Top 20, which means “Hall of Fame” status, and possibly even “Top 10”, which would mean “first ballot”. But in terms of the toughest loss ever there has been no change in our charts in over four years, and we doubt that the game atop the list will ever be seriously challenged. So what could be more cathartic on a day like this than to reflect back to May 4th of 2005, and a result that left a permanent scar.
Chan Ho Park and Danny Haren hooked up in the Rangers/A’s matchup that afternoon, and our stuff called for an Over at the 9’s that were out there. So what could be better than to be following the play by play and see that the game was already Over the Total in the top of the 4th inning? The hitting never let up – by the end of the 8th inning there were 23 runs on the board, on 28 hits and 15 walks, with five of the hits leaving the playing confines. Wins do not come much easier than that in professional sports.
Except that we did not win.
You can count the number of rain-outs in Oakland on one hand over the past decade – there is very little rainfall on that side of the Bay in the summer months. And that meant that we were not worrying about the usual nightmare of having an easy Over get eliminated because rain kept the game from going the distance (an out-dated rule, which we will get to in a moment). But then came the 9th inning. The Rangers were retired without scoring, as a light rain began to fall. When Joaquin Benoit went out to the mound in the bottom of the 9th for Texas the rain began to pick up, and the umpires decided to halt play (that is why he shows up in the historical box scores, despite not throwing a pitch – he was officially announced and in the game). Even then there was no reason to worry on our part – it was a Wednesday afternoon, and both teams were off on Thursday, so there was all afternoon and evening to get the final three outs in.
Or so we thought. What we did not know was that while both teams were off on Thursday, the umpiring crew was not. They had a flight to catch to get to their next assignment, and made a decision that neither team complained about since the Rangers were ahead 16-7 – they called the game as “complete”, after only a minimal delay.
We doubt that this one will ever be topped. Winning a baseball play by 14 runs is most rare, and the thought that we could win one by 14 runs and only get a refund is astronomical to happen again. If anything, the wager was penalized for being “too” correct – had the Rangers scored far fewer runs, there would have been a better chance of the game being completed, since Oakland could have made claim to still be in the hunt. And to lose the payout because the umpiring crew had to catch a flight is a rather absurd outcome.
The real culprit, of course, is the archaic house rule concerning baseball Totals. No matter how far a game has gone Over the Total, unless it goes to completion there is no play. That is wrong. We can understand Run Lines being scratched if a game is called early, because there is always a chance of a reversal (even in our example above, Oakland had a chance to turn the Run Line result, albeit a microscopic one). But once a Major League baseball game has gone Over the Total, and the game has gone five innings (or 4.5, if the home team has the lead), the betting result should be etched in stone. There is no possible chance for the outcome to be altered, with the Over bettor having clearly won, and the Under bettor having clearly lost.
We understand why the rules were originally structured the way that they were – in the early days of sports betting, bookmakers could not always be sure that their customers had the correct information in terms of game flows. It was an easy way to avoid disputes. But in these modern times that information is so readily available that there would not be any reason for a dispute to take place. Nor would there be many protests anyway, since an Under bettor knows fully well that their bet was wrong.
This still happens, of course. The same night that we lost that bitter outcome with the Red Sox the White Sox beat Cleveland 11-4 in a game that was called in the middle of the 7th because of rain, and the Marlins beat the Nationals 7-5 in similar fashion. Anyone that had bet either of those games Over had a clear win, and deserved to be paid, while anyone on the Under we have no reason to complain if money was deducted from their account. But the rules stand as they are, until someone is willing to take the next step forward.
For now we will spend part of our day remembering back to that lovely afternoon in Oakland, and a game that will likely hold its special place atop the Bad Beat charts for as long as we will be in action.
