In Deutschland ist alles besser (special for JackDee)

[X-Files]

To win WC outright {bet365}:

Brazil 4.00 Bet
Add England 7.50 Bet
Add Germany 9.00 Bet
Add Argentina 10.00 Bet
Add France 10.00 Bet
Add Italy 10.00 Bet
Add Holland 13.00 Bet
Add Spain 15.00 Bet
Add Portugal 23.00 Bet
Add Czech Republic 26.00 Bet
Add Mexico 41.00 Bet
Add Sweden 41.00 Bet
Add Ukraine 51.00 Bet
Add Croatia 67.00 Bet
Add Ivory Coast 67.00 Bet
Add Serbia & Montenegro 67.00 Bet
Add USA 101.00 Bet
Add Australia 126.00 Bet
Add Poland 126.00 Bet
Add Switzerland 151.00 Bet
Add Paraguay 201.00 Bet
Add South Korea 251.00 Bet
Add Ghana 251.00 Bet
Add Tunisia 301.00 Bet
Add Japan 301.00 Bet
Add Ecuador 301.00 Bet
Add Togo 501.00 Bet
Add Costa Rica 501.00 Bet
Add Saudi Arabia 751.00 Bet
Add Angola 751.00 Bet
Add Iran 751.00 Bet
Add Trinidad & Tobago 1001.00 Bet

 

[X-Files]

World Cup 2006 - Group B Book Closes Jun 10-16:00

Win Only
Add England -175 Bet
Add Sweden +225 Bet
Add Paraguay +650 Bet
Add Trinidad & Tobago +4000

 

[X-Files]

Lines for England & Netherlands...any value here?

5 England -0.5goal -140
6 Paraguay +0.5goal +132

51 Argentina 0goal -129
52 Netherlands 0goal +121

55 Côte d'Ivoire +1goal -112
56 Netherlands -1goal +104

Pinnacle early market

 

[X-Files]

I thought the USA was a world top 10 team, but, then, why do i see this...?

19 USA +0.5goal -115
20 Czech Republic -0.5goal +107

65 Italy -1goal +119
66 USA +1goal -127

69 Ghana 0goal +135
70 USA 0goal -143

 

[JackDee]

because they are a world top 10 team in the uefa rankings, which are heavily skewed, other rankings elo type, etc. dont have them this high, actually czechs look great at this price imo, the line for italy posits no value, and solely on the pk factor I d take the us with ghana, although the africans are not to be overlooked...

joyey, I ll have to side with acw on this argument.

"I do have to admit that I never ever had a bet on England!"

Lol, I ve not either...let me just refresh my memory...nope, never.

wish I had more time to look into these guys, have gone back to my pre 2006 schedule and I am choking up with work...damn...

 

[joeyfitzclick]

I am from Ireland and have family and friends there, and there is a bookie's on every street corner. If I'm going to put a $1000 on a game and I can find England 20c cheaper at home than anywhere online i'll have someone put the bet on for me or call the bookies direct and put the bet on my CC.

I guess it depends how badly you want the 'edge'.

 

[acw]

Hmmm. There seem to be some misunderstandings in this thread!
Some say that the odds offered by the bookies on England are biased, (as do some think that the odds on Manchester United are, which is at least to say laughable, since betting on MU the past 5 years makes you a healthy winner and I know many that have done just that). I am stating that in Asia this may not be the case anymore during the coming World Cup. At least for the past two years it has already not been the case, (which does not make me bet on England, but I am less likely to bet against them. Something I used to do often previously. I was never on England). Now others are claiming that in Ireland and England there is still this bias. It may be true that the bookie's on every street corner can get away with it.

What I do not understand is that joeyfitzclick now says that he still can find an edge betting on England with those bookie's on every street corner?

 

[winbet]

Hmmm. There seem to be some misunderstandings in this thread!
Some say that the odds offered by the bookies on England are biased, (as do some think that the odds on Manchester United are, which is at least to say laughable, since betting on MU the past 5 years makes you a healthy winner and I know many that have done just that). I am stating that in Asia this may not be the case anymore during the coming World Cup. At least for the past two years it has already not been the case, (which does not make me bet on England, but I am less likely to bet against them. Something I used to do often previously. I was never on England). Now others are claiming that in Ireland and England there is still this bias. It may be true that the bookie's on every street corner can get away with it.

What I do not understand is that joeyfitzclick now says that he still can find an edge betting on England with those bookie's on every street corner?

Dont kid yourself about the Asian market, thats full of dopes too and England is as popular as Brazil, do they buy all those Beckham Shirts because he's cute. Joey's right, England's price is always depressed, and a very well kept Bookie secret to success that I can reveal is, why lay 12/1 when you can lay 8/1. I hope I dont get into trouble showing people the intricaties of Bookmaking :drink:

 

[JackDee]

"I dont get into trouble showing people the intricaties of Bookmaking"

winbet, i guess the boys here we ll have to hoodwink you so you can take of to some destination unknown for a while for your own safety, he, he...to a safe tropical haven perhaps, maybe COSTA RICA!

seriously now, the conclusive test would be to run by a blind betting analysis of the odds for england, which I am sure would indeed have a lower turnover than say sweden, but not much lower than say italy...another intricasy here is that the sample data is rather small compared to national leagues when it comes to world cups and euro competitions and those teams that will have a better turnover are not the ones that win consistently, no one, except maybe brazil can do this in a world cup, but those that have something of a good run every 10 to 15 years, and england are not in this category either, in other words for me it's less about the price being depressed and more about england not performing not performing on par with even whatever objectifiable probabilities one can assign to them. So for me its not, objective probability 1/2, lets offer them at 1.6, hence the loss, but more than the objective probability might be 1/2 and the english actyally manage a 1/3 of the time. Why, because theirs so much built in expectation affecting the players for once.

 

[acw]

in other words for me it's less about the price being depressed and more about england not performing not performing on par with even whatever objectifiable probabilities one can assign to them. So for me its not, objective probability 1/2, lets offer them at 1.6, hence the loss, but more than the objective probability might be 1/2 and the english actyally manage a 1/3 of the time. Why, because theirs so much built in expectation affecting the players for once.

Ai ai ai!
Jack,
You forget one other possibility: Ordinary flux not being on their side!
You must realise that if week in and week out 100 of the same teams play against one and another, then there will always be one team that wins more than normal (could be Manchester United i.e.) against the spread and there will also be teams that lose more than normal (maybe England) against the spread. So even though the spread (or prices) is spot on right, they may simply be unlucky.

 

[acw]

Yes,
Just had the first England caller.
I gave the guy England -3/4 1.90 in their match against Paraguay.
I can easily lay it off better. I must say that I do not think that England is Under the odds here.

 

[acw]

Many, many mistakes on the various sites. Only one got it all right. And guess where the site is located?

I guess I have to change the title in In Deutschland was alles besser.
Anyhow what are some good sites with historical data?