thanks brutha. Do u see anymore potential besides doubling? I know this is a far fetched question, but does this have the potential of doing good things consistently, long term? I am definitely going to look into this.
Also, hitman, have you ever dealt with penny stocks or have the currently? I know this is a very dangerous and volatile environment, but was curious as to your advice / suggestions on this also.
thanks
I've owned Biotechs. Had some winners and some losers. I don't know a thing about this company but I can tell you this, nothing feels worse than having the FDA rule against you and watch a company you own lose 90% of its market cap. IMO investing in these guys is a recipe for disaster if this is the only company you buy. 1 out of five hit and unless you get lucky and get the one then this is dead money. Only way to buy these is in baskets. Otherwise buy the big guys, Celgene, AMGN, Gilead, Idec etc.
Hitman is right, expect to lose it all and maybe you get lucky...
IMO if you are going to buy just one company I think you would have a much better experience playing in a sandbox that isn't ruled by bureaucracy and actually has a product on the market. But best of luck whichever way you go.
Hitman is right, expect to lose it all and maybe you get lucky...
IMO if you are going to buy just one company I think you would have a much better experience playing in a sandbox that isn't ruled by bureaucracy and actually has a product on the market. But best of luck whichever way you go.
UnderArmour got absolutely drilled today:
<BIG class=pr>AP</BIG>
Under Armour Shares Fall After Downgrade
Friday January 18, 6:07 pm ET
By Ben Nuckols, Associated Press Writer <TABLE height=4 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=4></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Downgrade, Profit Forecast Send Under Armour Shares Plunging; Uncertain Market for New Shoe
BALTIMORE (AP) -- Athletic apparel maker Under Armour Inc. built its brand with innovative fabrics and aggressive marketing, and by using macho slogans like "We must protect this house!"
But that house could be on shaky ground because of an ambitious new shoe launch, says one analyst, whose downgrade of the stock, along with a disappointing profit forecast, led to shares losing nearly a quarter of their value Friday.
<TABLE cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=4 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=ad_slug_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-2]ADVERTISEMENT[/SIZE]
<IFRAME marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adi/N5043.yahoocom/B2625737.3;sz=300x250;dcopt=rcl;click=http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=12fjror0j/M=626899.11742544.12469774.1383221/D=fin/S=8988914:LREC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1200717059/A=5133107/R=0/*;ord=1200709859591023?" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250 BORDERCOLOR="#000000"><SCRIPT language='JavaScript1.1' SRC="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/N5043.yahoocom/B2625737.3;abr=!ie;sz=300x250;dcopt=rcl;click=http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=12fjror0j/M=626899.11742544.12469774.1383221/D=fin/S=8988914:LREC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1200717059/A=5133107/R=1/*;ord=1200709859591023?"></SCRIPT><NOSCRIPT>
</NOSCRIPT></IFRAME></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SCRIPT language=javascript>if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object();window.yzq_d['NU3sAULaX.4-']='&U=13bdd21ib%2fN%3dNU3sAULaX.4-%2fC%3d626899.11742544.12469774.1383221%2fD%3dLREC%2fB%3d5133107';</SCRIPT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The company will feature a 60-second commercial during the Super Bowl on Feb. 3, pushing its new line of cross-training shoes. But Wachovia Capital Markets analyst John Rouleau said the move is a gamble in a weakening retail environment and downgraded Under Armour's stock Friday morning.
The stock closed Friday at $28.01, down a whopping $9.05, or 24.4 percent, from Thursday's closing price on the New York Stock Exchange.
The downgrade followed Under Armour's announcement Thursday that it would turn a profit of between 3 cents and 5 cents per share in the first half of the year, far below analysts' average expectations of 39 cents for that period, according to Thomson Financial.
Company officials said that despite the Super Bowl spot, marketing expenses for the year were expected to remain in the range forecast previously -- 12 percent to 13 percent of revenues. Under Armour plans to roll out three versions of its cross-trainers in May, July and November.
The average cost of a 30-second Super Bowl ad this year is $2.7 million. Under Armour's minute-long ad will run during the first quarter of the game and give viewers their first look at the new shoe, said Steve Battista, Under Armour's vice president of marketing, who declined to disclose the cost of the spot.
"The platform couldn't be bigger to see what those shoes look like," Battista said.
But Wachovia's Rouleau downgraded the company to "Market Perform" from "Outperform" and cut yearly estimates to $1.26 from $1.28 per share.
"While ... brand momentum remains strong, the slowdown at retail combined with big inventory increases and the uncertainty surrounding launch of the cross-trainers lead us to step to the sidelines on the stock," he said.
Other analysts, however, had a different take. Banc of America Securities analyst Robert Ohmes continued to rate Under Armour "Buy" and said any stock-price adjustment should be used as a buying opportunity.
Brady Lemos of Morningstar said Under Armour's stock was overvalued last summer due to "some very aggressive growth projections" and that he expects the marketing campaign to be successful.
"The Super Bowl has the perfect audience for what they're trying to accomplish as far as their marketing goals go," Lemos said. "Any study you want to look at, it's certainly one of the hottest brands among youth. They clearly know what they're doing."
Under Armour will release its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 31. The company said it expects earnings of $1.03 or $1.04 per share for the full year, exceeding its previous outlook. And it reiterated its long-term growth targets of 20 percent to 25 percent a year in both sales and earnings.
Founded in 1996, the company began by selling temperature-regulating clothes made from wicking fabrics. It expanded into footwear in 2006 by selling football cleats, and it opened its first retail store last fall.
Under Armour Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Wayne Marino said the company was confident it could get people excited enough about cross-trainers again that they'd be willing to spend their dwindling disposable income on a shoe designed to wear during exercise.
"We're going to be creating a market. I know it sounds a little bit arrogant," Marino said. "The current cross-trainer market is nonexistent -- it's a barbecue shoe. You wear it on the weekends while you barbecue."
Analyst Matt Powell with SportsOneSource, which studies the sporting goods industry, noted that Under Armour's football cleats "immediately grabbed a 20 percent market share."
Despite the slowing economy, the retail market for cross-trainers is expected to be about $1 billion in 2008, and Under Armour should prove a viable new player in a market dominated by Nike and New Balance, Powell said.
But he said the Super Bowl ad posed a risk.
"The Super Bowl is three months before the shoe launch, and I'm just not sure that collective memory will hold the shoe in their heads for that long," Powell said. "It really will depend on how memorable the spot is."
Under Armour Inc.: http://www.underarmour.com
<BIG class=pr>AP</BIG>
Under Armour Shares Fall After Downgrade
Friday January 18, 6:07 pm ET
By Ben Nuckols, Associated Press Writer <TABLE height=4 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=4></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Downgrade, Profit Forecast Send Under Armour Shares Plunging; Uncertain Market for New Shoe
BALTIMORE (AP) -- Athletic apparel maker Under Armour Inc. built its brand with innovative fabrics and aggressive marketing, and by using macho slogans like "We must protect this house!"
But that house could be on shaky ground because of an ambitious new shoe launch, says one analyst, whose downgrade of the stock, along with a disappointing profit forecast, led to shares losing nearly a quarter of their value Friday.
<TABLE cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=4 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=ad_slug_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-2]ADVERTISEMENT[/SIZE]
<IFRAME marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adi/N5043.yahoocom/B2625737.3;sz=300x250;dcopt=rcl;click=http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=12fjror0j/M=626899.11742544.12469774.1383221/D=fin/S=8988914:LREC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1200717059/A=5133107/R=0/*;ord=1200709859591023?" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250 BORDERCOLOR="#000000"><SCRIPT language='JavaScript1.1' SRC="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/N5043.yahoocom/B2625737.3;abr=!ie;sz=300x250;dcopt=rcl;click=http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=12fjror0j/M=626899.11742544.12469774.1383221/D=fin/S=8988914:LREC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1200717059/A=5133107/R=1/*;ord=1200709859591023?"></SCRIPT><NOSCRIPT>
The stock closed Friday at $28.01, down a whopping $9.05, or 24.4 percent, from Thursday's closing price on the New York Stock Exchange.
The downgrade followed Under Armour's announcement Thursday that it would turn a profit of between 3 cents and 5 cents per share in the first half of the year, far below analysts' average expectations of 39 cents for that period, according to Thomson Financial.
Company officials said that despite the Super Bowl spot, marketing expenses for the year were expected to remain in the range forecast previously -- 12 percent to 13 percent of revenues. Under Armour plans to roll out three versions of its cross-trainers in May, July and November.
The average cost of a 30-second Super Bowl ad this year is $2.7 million. Under Armour's minute-long ad will run during the first quarter of the game and give viewers their first look at the new shoe, said Steve Battista, Under Armour's vice president of marketing, who declined to disclose the cost of the spot.
"The platform couldn't be bigger to see what those shoes look like," Battista said.
But Wachovia's Rouleau downgraded the company to "Market Perform" from "Outperform" and cut yearly estimates to $1.26 from $1.28 per share.
"While ... brand momentum remains strong, the slowdown at retail combined with big inventory increases and the uncertainty surrounding launch of the cross-trainers lead us to step to the sidelines on the stock," he said.
Other analysts, however, had a different take. Banc of America Securities analyst Robert Ohmes continued to rate Under Armour "Buy" and said any stock-price adjustment should be used as a buying opportunity.
Brady Lemos of Morningstar said Under Armour's stock was overvalued last summer due to "some very aggressive growth projections" and that he expects the marketing campaign to be successful.
"The Super Bowl has the perfect audience for what they're trying to accomplish as far as their marketing goals go," Lemos said. "Any study you want to look at, it's certainly one of the hottest brands among youth. They clearly know what they're doing."
Under Armour will release its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 31. The company said it expects earnings of $1.03 or $1.04 per share for the full year, exceeding its previous outlook. And it reiterated its long-term growth targets of 20 percent to 25 percent a year in both sales and earnings.
Founded in 1996, the company began by selling temperature-regulating clothes made from wicking fabrics. It expanded into footwear in 2006 by selling football cleats, and it opened its first retail store last fall.
Under Armour Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Wayne Marino said the company was confident it could get people excited enough about cross-trainers again that they'd be willing to spend their dwindling disposable income on a shoe designed to wear during exercise.
"We're going to be creating a market. I know it sounds a little bit arrogant," Marino said. "The current cross-trainer market is nonexistent -- it's a barbecue shoe. You wear it on the weekends while you barbecue."
Analyst Matt Powell with SportsOneSource, which studies the sporting goods industry, noted that Under Armour's football cleats "immediately grabbed a 20 percent market share."
Despite the slowing economy, the retail market for cross-trainers is expected to be about $1 billion in 2008, and Under Armour should prove a viable new player in a market dominated by Nike and New Balance, Powell said.
But he said the Super Bowl ad posed a risk.
"The Super Bowl is three months before the shoe launch, and I'm just not sure that collective memory will hold the shoe in their heads for that long," Powell said. "It really will depend on how memorable the spot is."
Under Armour Inc.: http://www.underarmour.com
Man when it goes bad it goes bad. I still really like the stock. It looks like the U.S slowdown hurt it and they are plowing a lot of their profits into marketing which is fine by me. What isn't fine by me is the action of the stock. I'm not adding more right now but I'm not panicking either.
