Maybe this has been a trainwreck for you but not for me. Like I said above, some people just don't like doing it this way. I don't just use any big favorite for these. Normally I'll only use a big favorite if I like them minus the points also. I've lost one of these this year and won about 6-7. The one I lost I deserved to because I put a Ml favorite in that I knew I shouldn't have (Illinois). Should never use them in this scenerio no matter who their playing.
Let me make one thing clear. I don't bet these trying to get a big + payout. I do it when I have a team like Texas -3.5 and I really like the game at a pick and want to get that number. I try to find 1 or 2 teams to make up a ML parlay around even money. It's just another way to try and get the number you like on a game.
Math is against you, golfball. Making bets like this long term is a money-losing proposition.
Think of it this way: Imagine you have a 10-sided dice and you're betting $2 to win $1 that any number OTHER than a 1 will be rolled. Your chances of a winner are very good.
Now imagine you have 5 10-sided dice and you're again making the same bet, this time wagering $1 to win $1, but if a 1 is rolled on ANY of the dice you lose the entire bet.
That's a really simplified version of the math behind these bets. There's a good (but very slow to read) book that addresses all kind of math behind betting by King Yao, titled "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting."
Think of it this way: Imagine you have a 10-sided dice and you're betting $2 to win $1 that any number OTHER than a 1 will be rolled. Your chances of a winner are very good.
Now imagine you have 5 10-sided dice and you're again making the same bet, this time wagering $1 to win $1, but if a 1 is rolled on ANY of the dice you lose the entire bet.
That's a really simplified version of the math behind these bets. There's a good (but very slow to read) book that addresses all kind of math behind betting by King Yao, titled "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting."
I totally disagree with your example. Strict math doesn't apply to this situation. You have to take into account the skill of the teams involved. Say you have this years Oklahoma team playing a home game against this years Idaho team and a win gets them into the National Championship. How many times out of 100 do you think Idaho wins that game? "0"
I've been doing this for years with success. In the 3 teamer I bet there will be times when the short odds team (texas) will lose. If that happens all it means is you would have lost if you bet it at -3.5 also so nothing lost. Very seldom will you lose the the big favorites you put in. But like I said, you can't use just any big favorite. You have to do your homework just like in making any other pick.
The first thing some people wanted to do is add more teams to try and get a bigger payoff. I don't advocate that at all. That's not why I make these bets. Like I said I've only made about 7-8 this year. When you use 5-6 big favorites in a ML parlay is when your much more likely to lose with a big upset.
So you don't handicap games. What do you do use a dart board? People like you are what's wrong with sports forums. Your just arrogant and think that your way is the only way anyone can win. Like the people that say you can't win in football betting double digit favorites or if you bet more than 5-6 games a day you can't win in the long run.
Like I said in my first post. This isn't for everyone. I just wanted to share something that's worked for me over the long haul that others might not have thought of. If it doesn't work for you then don't even try it.
Wow, Please read my post rookie.
Every team has a % chance of coming out on top. The LVSC know what the percentages are better than you ever will. They are not offering you an edge in the moneyline of big favorites.
These are gigantic sucker bets of all time and a guaranteed losing proposition over time. Even if you play it your way, you will lose over the long-run and not even realize it.
Every team has a % chance of coming out on top. The LVSC know what the percentages are better than you ever will. They are not offering you an edge in the moneyline of big favorites.
These are gigantic sucker bets of all time and a guaranteed losing proposition over time. Even if you play it your way, you will lose over the long-run and not even realize it.
