If You Believe In Trap Spreads, Oakland +3 Is As Good As It Gets!

[ca$hmoney]

Raiders have been practicing the Wildcat and who else runs it to perfection but McFadden.

Raiders defense may not stop the Jets but Oakland will score 21+!!!

 

[VegasDave31]

Raiders have been practicing the Wildcat and who else runs it to perfection but McFadden.

Do you have a link on this?? Me and my friend were saying the Raiders would be perfect for it with McFadden as QB and Fargas out there.

 

[3peet]

Do you have a link on this?? Me and my friend were saying the Raiders would be perfect for it with McFadden as QB and Fargas out there.

FYI guys. The Raiders aren't the most disciplined team to try new stuff on offense. Not trying to put a rain on this parade because right now i'm on the fence with this play. But I gotta express some facts here as I was thinking Jets all week.

Anyway. Were talking a rookie QB, a horrible O-line, and a rookie RB. They always find ways to f things up. And remember Darren is fumble prone. These guys really can't get outta their own way. I mean aren't they in the bottom quarter of the league in total offense or something? I wouldn't be surprised.

I know the Raiders look like a great pick because of the line but I just had to throw those facts out there.

 

[skidmrk]

Been looking at this game all week.Hate the raiders and
Davis but love the bet.

 

[sendacash]

The +155 ml could be worth a shot, although it is difficult to click the submit button w/ the Radiers.

 

[Dilrod]

You guys are insane. The Raiders kept it somewhat close against a couple decent teams this year, ya, but, that was with Kiffin who relied heavily on the run. Now we have Cable in there who is a Davis puppet who is gonna throw a lot more. And look how that worked out last week. Jets win by 3-21

 

[donkeybucks]

I can't believe I read that garbage. I 'm a big time raider fan and how many times I've read similar posts like this the past 5 years continues to astonish me.

Jets in a blowout. Get real folks, Raiders are a bunch of jokers and no way in hell are they gonna get "motivated" all of a sudden just because Favre on the other side.

I'm truly sick of these kinds of posts about the Raiders. Jets win and they win by alot.

 

[Dilrod]

There's plenty of folks on the Jets in the Hilton contest, I'm sure they are aware of the fishy line.

 

[donkeybucks]

There's plenty of folks on the Jets in the Hilton contest, I'm sure they are aware of the fishy line.

Yeah, and some how the books still manage to hook people into taking the Raidaha's every once in a awhile. People gotta realize the book every once in awhile will put out a fishy line to twist people's minds a little and they fall for it every time. Christ All Mighty, look within yourselfves and realize the Jets are the pick to take tomorrow. I like my Raiders but until Al Davis dies, they have no hope.

 

[donkeybucks]

This is exactly what a "trap" game is. The public's perception is that one team is so much better than the other that it can't lose and looks like one of the top plays of the week, season, etc.

If its so good and 88% of the public is pounding on the Jets, why hasn't the line moved to 3.5 or 4?

This isn't your typical trap game. Go outside and kick yourself in the head and sap down a cool beer. The book has you line and sinker. When a "Trap" looks too obvious to the public and the book wants to give the opportunity to the public to "think" they can outsmart the book.........well, there you go, Rope a Dope.

 

[aderol]

OK, call me the betting public, but jets roll in this one. Read the first post in this thread, he lists every single reason why the jets will throttle the raiders. Put money on the jets and you'll feel good about it by halftime. Guaran-sheed.

 

[imokbutmybetssick]

jets can't play out west

New York Jets -3.0 @ Oakland Raiders +3.0

Public Perception:

Jets - Brett Favre continues to skew lines towards the Jets. People love him, and when he got traded to Jets, everyone started talking playoffs. After burying Arizona and covering against Cincinnati, no reason for the betting public to believe they can't cover a measly 3 points against the lowly Raiders.

Raiders - After firing Lane Kiffin, Al Davis went on to have one of the most bizarre press conferences ever. He, as well as the team, is a complete laughing stock. Tom Cable is not a capable head coach. They got completely destroyed by New Orleans (pass happy, like the Jets) but more alarmingly they were completely shut down on offense against a fairly mediocre defense. If they couldn't stop New Orleans, how will they stop the Jets?

The Matchups:

Jets 5th in NFL points scored for VS. Raiders 27th in points against.

Brett Favre VS. Raiders 25th ranked passing defense.

Raiders 29th ranked passing attack shouldn't be able to exploit the Jets bad passing defense...

Raiders 4th ranked rushing attack faces the Jet's 3rd ranked rushing defense.

Now I know this is oversimplified, but my point is simply this; the average capper looking at the stats sees a Raiders team that can't pass the ball and relies on the run, which is perfect for the Jets since their rushing defense is their strong point. The Jets, meanwhile, get to unleash Brett Favre on the league's 25th worst passing defense. We saw the simplicity that Cutler and Brees moved the ball against them with.

Conclusion:

Bookies know that the public overvalues the Jets and undervalues the Raiders. So they know they can tweak the spread accordingly (-a half point or two on the Jets, +half a point or two for the Raiders). Then you look at the statistics/capping 101 breakdown of this game, and there is a lot to like about the Jets here.

So why on earth is this spread only 3? And why hasn't it moved? EVERYONE is on the Jets, and everyone seems fine paying extra juice to take them at such a bargain number, too.

If you don't believe in trap spreads, take the Jets, they are clearly the pick. I for one will be on Oakland; way way way too obvious in my opinion that the books are up to something on this one.

the way i c it is jets d and oak d are evenly matched and oaktowns offense may click at home sunday! OAK wins this one bud!

 

[docslep]

books are begging for nyj money... but how do u bet on the raaaiders?

i respectfully disagree, the books need the raiders bad, since 80% of public's on the jets

 

[docslep]

books are begging for nyj money... but how do u bet on the raaaiders?

i think the bookies need nyj in the situation, no?:think2:

 

[JimmyVegas]

Probably the only reason the line is so low is that the raiders have a VERY good defense

 

[VegasDave31]

Congrats Raider backers!

 

[ESQAJM]

This is exactly what a "trap" game is. The public's perception is that one team is so much better than the other that it can't lose and looks like one of the top plays of the week, season, etc.

If its so good and 88% of the public is pounding on the Jets, why hasn't the line moved to 3.5 or 4?

This is the 2nd week in a row that I picked the "trap" game of the week. There is no rhyme or reason why, but they find a way to win week after week (like a 57 yard field goal or a blocked kick returned for a TD like the Dallas game) It always amazes me.

I didn't win any money on this game even though I handicapped it right, but it stopped me from betting on the Jets who I thought would win by 3 TD's. I just stayed away from the game and saved money. My problem is that I never believe that these "trap" games can win, so I don't bet them. But at least they keep me off the other side.

 

[Aloha_4_Da_Winna]

You guys are insane. The Raiders kept it somewhat close against a couple decent teams this year, ya, but, that was with Kiffin who relied heavily on the run. Now we have Cable in there who is a Davis puppet who is gonna throw a lot more. And look how that worked out last week. Jets win by 3-21

Burn...... great call on oakland. Wish i read this thread earlier.