Noreaga said:
I didnt know the games were final after 1 inning.
I dont need to fade you as I do just fine on my own. My piont is your post is still no help to anyone. It only serves to feed your ego. If you win you will brag, if you lose you will "make your point" by offering a 150 unit play. Your act is stale.
As far as the real topic of this discussion.
unit sizes were invented by scamdicapper so they could charge more money, plain and simple.
If anyone can find THREE times a difference between one bet over another they should NEVER lose, let alone FIVE TIMES. If people WERE that good they would simply bet all their TOP plays, which would simply leave out any reason to rate them in the first place.
But guys like to keep score that way, that is fine. I keep score with a balance in my accounts. I could care less how many units I have, I just care about dollars.
unit sizes were invented by scamdicapper so they could charge more money, plain and simple.
If anyone can find THREE times a difference between one bet over another they should NEVER lose, let alone FIVE TIMES. If people WERE that good they would simply bet all their TOP plays, which would simply leave out any reason to rate them in the first place.
But guys like to keep score that way, that is fine. I keep score with a balance in my accounts. I could care less how many units I have, I just care about dollars.
It is just another play. So they are +205. If you bet enough that bets gets lost in the shuffle win or lose.
I habitually take Alt RL dogs WELL over +300, they are simply bets that I make along the way that run with other bets. Do I feel any more strongly about them than any other bet, no. Do I feel they have LESS chance to win..again no.
The problem with people gauging plays is their opinion is still only worth what their overall "talent" is at picking winners. Meaning that they are in a vacuum. If they are picking winners at 52%, then their stronger opinion is still 48% wrong, just like their "normal" opinion plays.
When you are playing plays one way with no scalping and no buying back, your chances of winning (assuming you make your own plays) is the same for every play, stronger opinion or not.
Anyone that tracks their "strong" plays and their "regular" plays over an extremely long time will see that they will hit the same percentage.
I know some wil come in hear and say they dont. Those guys don't have extensive enough records. I am talking thousands upon thousands of bets. Not just a few that they keep track of here and there.
If guys are betting daily, then they should have no problem getting 1500-2000 bets a year. Over a couple years they have more than ehough data to see what I am talking about.
I habitually take Alt RL dogs WELL over +300, they are simply bets that I make along the way that run with other bets. Do I feel any more strongly about them than any other bet, no. Do I feel they have LESS chance to win..again no.
The problem with people gauging plays is their opinion is still only worth what their overall "talent" is at picking winners. Meaning that they are in a vacuum. If they are picking winners at 52%, then their stronger opinion is still 48% wrong, just like their "normal" opinion plays.
When you are playing plays one way with no scalping and no buying back, your chances of winning (assuming you make your own plays) is the same for every play, stronger opinion or not.
Anyone that tracks their "strong" plays and their "regular" plays over an extremely long time will see that they will hit the same percentage.
I know some wil come in hear and say they dont. Those guys don't have extensive enough records. I am talking thousands upon thousands of bets. Not just a few that they keep track of here and there.
If guys are betting daily, then they should have no problem getting 1500-2000 bets a year. Over a couple years they have more than ehough data to see what I am talking about.
Sherman yes it makes sense...just as long as when those big dogs win and you only have them bet for a "little" bit you aren't the type to say..."I KNEW I should have bet more on those guys". If you bet the same amount everytime you NEVER have to say that. And in the long run if you can truly pick enough winners to make money, you will be further ahead. Trust me.
You have a very valid point Noreaga, but you are being just a tad harsh. There are at least a handful of solid cappers on here that would wager 5 times or in rare instances even more on a single game if the situation warrants it in their minds. Generally you are correct but no need to piss off honest cappers either. You are smart enough to pick out the smucks that are full of sheet from those that are honest.
Has poor Kelly Criterion been thrown in the garbage can.
The sharpest Pros bet proportional to their edge. The sharpest pros can accurately estimate their edge as well.
54.4% play at -110? Kelly says bet around 4% of broll. 1/2 Kelly says bet 2%. A 56% play at novig is a 12% of broll full Kelly bet. A 50.5% novig bet is a 1/2 % of broll full Kelly bet.
People say "Kelly does not work". Wrong. Kelly works great. It's the average gamblers inability to assess their edge that doesn't work.
Bettting a flat unit is optimal for 98% of gamblers, because 98% of gamblers s***K. However, truly gifted pro bettors would laugh at restricing plays to 1-2 units.
:monsters-
The sharpest Pros bet proportional to their edge. The sharpest pros can accurately estimate their edge as well.
54.4% play at -110? Kelly says bet around 4% of broll. 1/2 Kelly says bet 2%. A 56% play at novig is a 12% of broll full Kelly bet. A 50.5% novig bet is a 1/2 % of broll full Kelly bet.
People say "Kelly does not work". Wrong. Kelly works great. It's the average gamblers inability to assess their edge that doesn't work.
Bettting a flat unit is optimal for 98% of gamblers, because 98% of gamblers s***K. However, truly gifted pro bettors would laugh at restricing plays to 1-2 units.
:monsters-
