Obviously if there is equal action then the line isn't going to move.
But since it came out at 6.5 and is at 7 and I wouldn't be surprised if it hits 7.5 or 7 -115 at a few places with all the last minute squares betting that are not on wagerline.
Fish,
Even though this is just my opinion you still haven't told me why 6.5 to 7 was better than 7.5 to 7.
My thought was this crowd is going to play the chalk if lopsided at all which is what happened thus far w/ 6.5 to 7. I'm guessing if 7.5 was the initial mainstream number to start more books would still be at their opening number now. (where as not one book is from what I can see)
I guess I'm just waiting for this eye opening information you held back out of respect for me.
thanks, BD
But since it came out at 6.5 and is at 7 and I wouldn't be surprised if it hits 7.5 or 7 -115 at a few places with all the last minute squares betting that are not on wagerline.
Fish,
Even though this is just my opinion you still haven't told me why 6.5 to 7 was better than 7.5 to 7.
My thought was this crowd is going to play the chalk if lopsided at all which is what happened thus far w/ 6.5 to 7. I'm guessing if 7.5 was the initial mainstream number to start more books would still be at their opening number now. (where as not one book is from what I can see)
I guess I'm just waiting for this eye opening information you held back out of respect for me.
thanks, BD
75% of the books would be shocked if the game landed right on the number (7) then they don't have to do the payouts unless you have a winning wager via point buying,scalping and.or teasers. In this worst case scenario with PanAm,do you think they still have the funds to payout the withdrawal requests?
First off, If Royal was any slower to move their lines they would be the newspaper. They will probably go to -120 at 6.5 and hang on to that initial number till the rope slips.
Yeah 7 is where it is at right now but its all relative to where it STARTED. That half a point move is a ton of cash in the long run to the house especially if the chalk picks up speed and a lot of cash has yet to be layed.
If the line opened at 7.5 what % of squares that took the pats at 6.5 do you think would still have taken them? What % of sharps might have taken them thinking it wasn't going to cr0ss 7?
At the very least its debateble and worth a thread or else what I said wouldn't of brought you back here.
Thank you for blessing us with your insight.
Yeah 7 is where it is at right now but its all relative to where it STARTED. That half a point move is a ton of cash in the long run to the house especially if the chalk picks up speed and a lot of cash has yet to be layed.
If the line opened at 7.5 what % of squares that took the pats at 6.5 do you think would still have taken them? What % of sharps might have taken them thinking it wasn't going to cr0ss 7?
At the very least its debateble and worth a thread or else what I said wouldn't of brought you back here.
Thank you for blessing us with your insight.
Bill,
With all due respect Fish is right. The line will never be 7.5 and if it was there would not have been balanced action because with a number so outlandish the sharps with the deep pockets would far outweigh any square money....sure the squares would have still took the number but the superbowl line opens two weeks before the game......how many squares do you think would have been betting $20k on that sunday night or, indeed, any day up until today. Linesmakers would have a six figure liability going into today and would be gambling on NE money appearing. They are not in business to gamble.
Sky
With all due respect Fish is right. The line will never be 7.5 and if it was there would not have been balanced action because with a number so outlandish the sharps with the deep pockets would far outweigh any square money....sure the squares would have still took the number but the superbowl line opens two weeks before the game......how many squares do you think would have been betting $20k on that sunday night or, indeed, any day up until today. Linesmakers would have a six figure liability going into today and would be gambling on NE money appearing. They are not in business to gamble.
Sky
Bill;
Let's assume for one second the books opened the number at 7.5. They would have had a ton of sharp action on the dawg... TONS and then some squares jumping all over it too.
The line would have moved to 7 and then the square money would have come... let's further asssume the square money moved the Pats to -6.5.
And bang, you get a ton of buyback...
What do you get? A middle if the game lands on 7. The game lands on 7 and the books would have had to pay the dawg at +7', the fave at -6' + plus all the teaser money...
books----->
<----------players
FISH is right and Sky Masterson too. 7 is the absolute right number... a push is the worst case escenario.
KUDOS FISH, you were right on the money from the very beginning...
If I had to guess, offshore opened at 6.5 to be able to offset all the Vegas action coming in later on... Just a wild guess
Let's assume for one second the books opened the number at 7.5. They would have had a ton of sharp action on the dawg... TONS and then some squares jumping all over it too.
The line would have moved to 7 and then the square money would have come... let's further asssume the square money moved the Pats to -6.5.
And bang, you get a ton of buyback...
What do you get? A middle if the game lands on 7. The game lands on 7 and the books would have had to pay the dawg at +7', the fave at -6' + plus all the teaser money...
books----->
FISH is right and Sky Masterson too. 7 is the absolute right number... a push is the worst case escenario.
KUDOS FISH, you were right on the money from the very beginning...
