If Gambling is 50/50 Why so many losers?

valdosta · Oct 24, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Blown Head Gasket:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by valdosta:
What vig is that using SG?? I only play moneylines and more (+)'s the (-)'s but I was curious what vig you are using anyways.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Standard 10% vig bet 1000, lose 1100<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks

TheGeneral+ · Oct 25, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>lack of discipline <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Maintaining good discipline is so key in everyday decisions. Maybe more so in the ways we invest our money.

BillDozer · Oct 25, 2003

The main answer is here but the book also sways the line a tad towards where they think most people are going to play. Most people dont bet obscure events either.

Acidkid · Oct 25, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by BillDozer:
The main answer is here but the book also sways the line a tad towards where they think most people are going to play. Most people dont bet obscure events either.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

EXACTLY - The fact that so many posters don't mention this is indicative of how poorly informed the betting public is. Yes, the vig is a major component, but regardless of the juice the BIG TRUTH is it's never a 50/50 pick.

A great read about sportsbooks and players is "The Odds: One Season, Three Gamblers, and the Death of Their Las Vegas" by Chad Millman.

SSI · Oct 25, 2003

money management is the key..

Acidkid · Oct 25, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by SSI:
money management is the key..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

If it was all about money management, someone would write a book EXACTLY how to do it, and the books would be out of business in a month.

The system is against the player from the start. Money management can't overcome the odds staked up against the player when making what appears to be a 50/50 choice.

sfeiner · Oct 25, 2003

"any time you choose one side or the other in a 50/50 deal the chances are 90% you will choose wrong." yogi berra

SSI · Oct 25, 2003

money management isnt the only thing, however it is the number 1 obstacle that most cant overcome..

just_me_sam · Oct 25, 2003

sfeiner,
I never heard that one but that is so funny I have got to make that my tagline.
story of my life!! lol

WildBill · Oct 26, 2003

You guys all miss the most obvious and important. If 95% of your players are fighting you with say about 20 bet bankroll and the book has about the equivalent of say 500 bets to go up against all these people, not to mention the edge of the vig, how can you expect the book not to win??? That indeed is the difference when looking at it from a big picture point of view. These other things can break a player, but in general the most important thing is a player can get a handful of wins now and then, but he is always under threat of going on a losing streak and going at least temporarily bust. If the book properly manages his customers and gets enough of these squares he should never go out of business.

BillDozer · Oct 26, 2003

WildBill
Thats kinda off the question. Its not us vs the book to see who busts firsts. The question is why do so many lose so bad on a 50/50 proposition.

so far we got..

-the vig eating away at our roll (most people go 50/50 lifetime which is paying alotta juice if they flat bet)

-money management/chasing losses or chasing wins for that matter

-books try to sell the public a 50/50 chance of winning the play when they sway the odds by capping the public and what we will do

This thread turned into a what not to do vs all the what to dos and they pretty much are the same thing. Its good to look at it backwards though. You see how and why people fail but you can bet that people who agree with this thread will still go extra money on the late game of the day, will still play at full vig and will still play all the mainstream events because thats where the easy info is.

Acidkid · Oct 26, 2003

The ART of bookmaking isn't in the vig, it isn't finding the chasers or poor money managers - it's selling bad numbers.

That's why in what looks like a 50/50 proposition that you have so many losers - it's because it's not 50/50.

This thread shows that most of the players (Bill Dozer excluded) have a grave misunderstanding of the market.

WildBill · Oct 26, 2003

I don't get it, selling bad numbers??? I still maintain if you have one guy with 20 bets fighting someone else with 500 bets, the guy with 500 bets is going to win just about every time. If the guy with 20 bets gets ahead a little, he still is in danger of getting on a cold streak and blowing money. Think of it as a never ending battle and the guy you are facing starts with a built in edge and has a lot more money than you do. Knowing that how can it not be that very few do win?

As for the statement, the 50/50 part should tell it all. If a player indeed were 50/50 then yes he will lose in the long run by the amount of vig. Simple as that. The fluctuations of gambling though trick people that aren't able to get to 53% or better into thinking they can get some sort of edge. Those fluctuations are what kill off just about all gamblers, they bet too much when they run lucky and give up easily when they run bad.

Oren1 · Oct 26, 2003

discipline of course is one key... besides chasing, the opposite can be hell on your bankroll as well, getting overconfident after a winning streak and blowing winnings on wagers you wouldn't normally make or betting more than you normally would just because you just won some dough.

JackDee · Oct 26, 2003

Vig solely can't explain why the 95% losers and just 5% winners.

Neither "money management", there's no such thing for me. Money management is no issue when buying groceries, you can't get ruined financialy by buying too many cabbages say (unless of course you have some cabbage obsession), so how come the same person know and understand the principles of money management when they invest in groceries, or clothes, or housing, or furniture, and become completely oblivious of it over a roulette table? There is no paradox here, it's easily shown ad absordum that money management is not the issue.

The truth plain and simple is that gambling is addictive, most bet for the kick they get out of it, not to win. Most when they win something, they get greedy and wanting more they bet above their means and head, when they lose they press and chase. Even the best gamblers can and are ruined because of the addictive and "degenerative" so to speak nature of gambling.

BillDozer · Oct 26, 2003

Acid
Its is definately important to acknowledge that the books are capping us as players. (the dual line providers are cheating at this!)

But you do also agree that a pick % can be made or broke by what vig you played at right?

As far as bookmaking goes if you take pinnacle's 10 cent line (where they spread it out to give sides more or less action and get more $ on the posted number before moving it) you can consider the juice and the line one in the same.

I do hope to be able to sniff out the swayed lines (you vs the public perception) but if it wasnt for reduced juice I would quit.

A real good example of what acid is talking about is the wolves/bucks NBA line for 10/29.
There is no way in hell anyone is gonna choose the bucks at almost any number so the wolves are -13 and it wont get any better. If the book knows that the action is going on the Twolves why give us what they really came up with. Most people will leave that alone and they know its a sucker bet but the wolves fans and all the hoophype people will take the Twolves.

50/50 shot my ass. Someone who plays those will be a 38% winner. Now play monday night football and you'll go 50% and the juice is loose.

BillDozer · Oct 26, 2003

Your first paragraph argues money management is not the issue and your second paragraph described money management.

Its pretty simple actually. There is the books edges as we just posted about and then there is money management which you just argued with yourself about.

JackDee · Oct 26, 2003

wildbill:"I still maintain if you have one guy with 20 bets fighting someone else with 500 bets, the guy with 500 bets is going to win just about every time."

Not so.
As Bill dozer pointed out, you are not playing who busts first with the book. You are not competing with the book in terms of profits either. Your fallacy here is that you are presupposing i have to match the book's money in each of my bets, if that were the case the book with a much bigger bankroll, and assuming similar capping abilities, has a huge advantage over me. But i don't, i only have to bet according to my means, hence the books finances are irrelevant to me.

"These other things can break a player, but in general the most important thing is a player can get a handful of wins now and then, but he is always under threat of going on a losing streak and going at least temporarily bust. "

Not so either.
If someone bets 1% of his bankroll in one single bet, and manages to go bust losing 100% of his bankroll, he should quit gambling.

JackDee · Oct 26, 2003

"Your first paragraph argues money management is not the issue and your second paragraph described money management.

Its pretty simple actually. There is the books edges as we just posted about and then there is money management which you just argued with yourself about."

you don't get my point, re-read what i am writing, i am making a distinction between money management in normal everyday decisions and addictive behaviours. The crux i maintain is that gambling forms addictive/obsessive behaviours that can be detrimental to both one's well being and financial prosperity. To say that money management is the issue, is one huge understatement.

Acidkid · Oct 26, 2003

JackDee, first... this thread isn't about addiction and it's not about money management.

It's a question about why, given what appears to be a 50/50 choice, do more people lose than win. The answer to that is... in sports betting (even at -100) where a point spread is involved, their is no such thing as a TRUE 50/50 proposition.

While money management is a large aspect of gambling, it has little to do with this thread. Money management has nothing to do with picking between two sides.

And to comment on your 'addictive' comments, anything in excess (addiction) can be detrimental - be it gambling, shopping, or eating. Anything.