Switzerland -0.5 and Switzerland ML is the exact same thing. The reason there is a discrepancy is because someone pounded on of those (either ML or spread) and the books have not adjusted it yet. Usually, they are both the same price, but can get out of whack a bot when big money goes on one of either the spread or the ML. So in the above case, you should take the ML due to the better price, but the books will adjust that if you wait a few minutes. Hope this helps.
Record: 8-1-2, +12.4 units
I actually cashed two bets yesterday, with the Portugal game bet, as well as my Portugal to win the group bet. With Portugal's win, they now secure 1st place in Group A. A fantastic start so far to the tourney, let's keep it going:
Germany -0.5, -127 (2 units)
Well, Croatia is certainly missing Eduardo Da Silva. They played an awful game against Austria in their first game and got lucky to eek out a 1/0 win, thanks to an early PK. Today they face one of the best teams in the competition in Germany. We saw how Germany handled Poland (who are no slouches when you consider that they won their group in Euro qualification). I just can't see anything other than a Germany win. Also, historically this matchup has favored Germany, with 7 games played between these two, Germany winning 5 times, Croatia winning once and the other being a draw. Germany just has too much firepower in Klose, Ballack and Podolski, and without Da Silva, Croatia just doesn't have enough to get an upset.
I actually cashed two bets yesterday, with the Portugal game bet, as well as my Portugal to win the group bet. With Portugal's win, they now secure 1st place in Group A. A fantastic start so far to the tourney, let's keep it going:
Germany -0.5, -127 (2 units)
Well, Croatia is certainly missing Eduardo Da Silva. They played an awful game against Austria in their first game and got lucky to eek out a 1/0 win, thanks to an early PK. Today they face one of the best teams in the competition in Germany. We saw how Germany handled Poland (who are no slouches when you consider that they won their group in Euro qualification). I just can't see anything other than a Germany win. Also, historically this matchup has favored Germany, with 7 games played between these two, Germany winning 5 times, Croatia winning once and the other being a draw. Germany just has too much firepower in Klose, Ballack and Podolski, and without Da Silva, Croatia just doesn't have enough to get an upset.
For the next game I'm taking:
Poland pk, -134 (2 units)
This is an important game for both Poland and Austria, as both would like a win to advance. Austria is the weakest team in the tourney, the decent showing against Croatia won't change my mind. Poland won't lose this game, that's why I'm taking them at a pick.
Poland pk, -134 (2 units)
This is an important game for both Poland and Austria, as both would like a win to advance. Austria is the weakest team in the tourney, the decent showing against Croatia won't change my mind. Poland won't lose this game, that's why I'm taking them at a pick.
Overall record (incl. futures) 8-3-3, -1.34 units
Yesterday was not a good day. Germany fucked me over big time as I lost the Germany to win group bet. I had 11.2 units to win 7 units on that, what a stupid bet on my part. It looked easy, and as we know the easy ones get us. Meanwhile I went light on Portugal and Spain to win their groups, and Portugal took theirs, Spain will probably take theirs. That Germany group bet is a big loss, oh well, just got to recover. On to today:
Italy -0.5, -130 (3 units)
This is a must win game for italy. After that awful performance against the Dutch, Donadoni has made several changes in this game. Zambrotta and Grosso on the wings are sure, as Chiellini in the middle while his partner will likely be Panucci, more than Barzagli, and he's more than capable of playing there. In the middle, there will be another change, with Perrotta replacing Ambrosini alongside De Rossi and with Pirlo a step back, while Camoranesi should play as an offensive playmaker behind Toni and Del Piero. I thought the starting 11 against the Dutch was not a very good decision by Donadoni, and I like these changes. On the other side, Romania didn't really impress me at all against France, as they just played defence all game long. Mutu is of course the biggest threat, but apart from him I don't see anyone else who can threaten the goal. It doesn't help that Romanian striker Ciprian Marica suffered a head injury in practice, and he will be starting on the bench.
We all saw what happened to Germany yesterday, and that is that even the best teams have off days. Italy had an off day against the Dutch, I think with the changes, we'll see a better performance and a win.
Yesterday was not a good day. Germany fucked me over big time as I lost the Germany to win group bet. I had 11.2 units to win 7 units on that, what a stupid bet on my part. It looked easy, and as we know the easy ones get us. Meanwhile I went light on Portugal and Spain to win their groups, and Portugal took theirs, Spain will probably take theirs. That Germany group bet is a big loss, oh well, just got to recover. On to today:
Italy -0.5, -130 (3 units)
This is a must win game for italy. After that awful performance against the Dutch, Donadoni has made several changes in this game. Zambrotta and Grosso on the wings are sure, as Chiellini in the middle while his partner will likely be Panucci, more than Barzagli, and he's more than capable of playing there. In the middle, there will be another change, with Perrotta replacing Ambrosini alongside De Rossi and with Pirlo a step back, while Camoranesi should play as an offensive playmaker behind Toni and Del Piero. I thought the starting 11 against the Dutch was not a very good decision by Donadoni, and I like these changes. On the other side, Romania didn't really impress me at all against France, as they just played defence all game long. Mutu is of course the biggest threat, but apart from him I don't see anyone else who can threaten the goal. It doesn't help that Romanian striker Ciprian Marica suffered a head injury in practice, and he will be starting on the bench.
We all saw what happened to Germany yesterday, and that is that even the best teams have off days. Italy had an off day against the Dutch, I think with the changes, we'll see a better performance and a win.
record: 12-4-3, +2.10 units
I forgot to add that I won my Spain to win group bet yesterday, so I updated my record. Going to be out most of the day, so I'll post my picks now:
Czech Republic pk -150, (2 units)
This is the big game today, both teams needing a win to advance, a tie at the end of 90 minutes sends this to pk's, something both teams want to avoid. To be honest, neither team impressed me at all so far. Czechs didn't do so well against the Swiss and got hammered by Portugal. On the other side, Turkey didn't play well against the Swiss either, barely eeking out a win. They lost pretty handily to Portugal too. But I got to go with what I feel is the best team, and that's the Czechs. With Baros and Koller up front, they should cause some headaches for the Turkish defenders. Also, the Czechs have one of the best goalies in the world in Peter Cech. I'll take the better team in this one.
I forgot to add that I won my Spain to win group bet yesterday, so I updated my record. Going to be out most of the day, so I'll post my picks now:
Czech Republic pk -150, (2 units)
This is the big game today, both teams needing a win to advance, a tie at the end of 90 minutes sends this to pk's, something both teams want to avoid. To be honest, neither team impressed me at all so far. Czechs didn't do so well against the Swiss and got hammered by Portugal. On the other side, Turkey didn't play well against the Swiss either, barely eeking out a win. They lost pretty handily to Portugal too. But I got to go with what I feel is the best team, and that's the Czechs. With Baros and Koller up front, they should cause some headaches for the Turkish defenders. Also, the Czechs have one of the best goalies in the world in Peter Cech. I'll take the better team in this one.
