4 Unit Play. #707. Take Providence +10.5 over Villanova (Thursday @ 7pm est). I'm glad we cashed with the 5* on Missouri as that is now 6 straight 5* Winners as we come off December cbb gom, Jan cbb gom, Feb cbb gom and March cbb gom winners. We are 5-1 on the week and 6-2 in March so let's keep our "Madness" run going. You can probably get 11 for this line if you wait or shop around. But, I see mostly 10.5 with spotted "11's" so just wait as the public will likely raise this price higher which is fine as we take the underdog. I like the fact that Villanova comes off such a huge and dominating win over Notre Dame on the road. No, Providence is not ranked 16th in the country like Nova is and no, Providence is not 12-5 in the conference like Nova nor do they get anywhere close to the press coverage. But, yes, this Providence did take 'Nova to the wire earlier this year losing 91-94. In fact, in that game, Nova was up at the half 49-34 only to see that lead dwindle as Providence made a spirited comeback. Granted, if Nova was coming off a loss to Notre Dame, I would have stayed away from this game. But, Nova comes off a big 17 point win at the eyes of the public after the outright loss to Georgetown at home which undoubtedly stung for this team. Heck, GT had 25 turnovers and still managed to win the game and for a team that learns discipline from a solid coach, this was hard to take. Hence, their big win at Notre Dame. I understand it is senior night, but coming off such a big win over Notre Dame, I think this is a wash. Tack on the fact that Providence has gained confidence from what they did right in the second half against this team at home, plus, the fact that this Friar team is playing better defeating Pittsburgh and their #1 ranking 81-73 at home and following it up by not having a let down and defeating Rutgers on the road sweeping them on the season. I'm not taking anything away from Nova, but I think Providence will sneak inside the number here as Villanova has not covered back to back games since February 10th. The Friars are 9-4 ATS as underdogs of 7 to 12 points and the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS when facing teams with a road winning % of less than 40% - meaning they have trouble covering big spreads at home.
Good Luck,
Indian Cowboy.
Good Luck,
Indian Cowboy.