simple math, and i mean very simple math, would have a 50% capper finishing 1-1 50% of the time 25% of the time 2-0 and the other 25% 0-2.
So it should not surprise anyone to see a guy who is releasing just 2 plays go 1-1 quite often. However, fading or doubling up on the 2nd play after you know the first play results is just flat out gambling. Having said that, good luck with the strategy.
So it should not surprise anyone to see a guy who is releasing just 2 plays go 1-1 quite often. However, fading or doubling up on the 2nd play after you know the first play results is just flat out gambling. Having said that, good luck with the strategy.
4 Unit Play. #526. Take the James Madison Dukes +3.5 over over VCU (Wednesday @ 7pm est). Glad we were able to cash with Iowa State yesterday. In hindsight, I probably should have stepped out in that play, but it's all good as at some point I will step out this week on the college card. There is no need to press the issue here as we will wait for the right spot. As per this game, I like James Madison here for the potential outright here in the Colonial. For starters, I like the fac that JMU is a great free throw shooting team at 75.7% and I believe this will be important with the home crowd behind this team. The average attendance for JMU's contest has been around 3,500 for big conference games, which might not seem like a lot but given the limited seating of JMU, the stadium will be packed. Make no mistake about it that VCU is a good team. They lead the conference currently at 12-4 while JMU is 9-7 in conferece play. But, this is the same VCU team that lost to conference dud and dead last NC-Wilmington on the road by 9. This is the same VCU team that lost to Old Dominion on the road by 4 and the same VCU team that lost to Deleware on the highway as well James Madison already faced this team once this year and they took VCU to the wire in overtime at VCU. James Madison has really turned it up a notch at home. Remember, they defeated George Mason earlier this year at home who is second in the conference by a score of 68-66. This team beat ODU on the road as well in the beginning of the year by 8. When these two teams hooked up last time around JMU lost 71-76 in OT on the road. Note, they out rebounded VCU in that game 36-31. VCU also got to the line in that game 25 times and shot 14/25 from the free throw line - just 56%. JMU got to the line 17 times and shot 14 for 17 or 82.4%. That striking difference in free throw shooting and some home cooking calls will certainly help this time around for JMU. I also like how Wells, Thornton, Louis and Moore all were in double figures in that contest as well for the Dukes. I know we are not always on the "sexy" and "popular" plays but I like the Dukes here as it has everything we look for. About 2/3rds of the public is riding the road chalk VCU, I like the home dog here in JMU in fading the public, as our team has revenge, is a much better shooting free throw team will be key as it was last game when our team lost in OT as well as in this game with the home crowd, a team that be competitive on the boards and who already beat other top teams in the conference and can certainly get it done here at home. Granted, VCU does come off a tough 1 point loss to Nevada which worries me a bit as they look to bounce-back, but I will take my chances here with JMU for the reasons stated above. The VCU Rams are 0-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record of 60% or more, VCU is 1-7 ATS in conference play their last 8 contests and the Dukes are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs of 0-6.5 points.
4 Unit Play. #518. Take Denver Nuggets -8 over Atlanta Hawks (Wednesday @ 9:05pm est). This seems like a sound spot to take the Nuggets here and we will roll with them. As bettors, we want as many factors to work in our favor as possible when making POD selections. For starters, Denver has revenge over the Hawks from a double-digit loss earlier this year when Denver went into Atlanta and lost 91-109 and Atlanta easily covered as 5 point chalk. What's wild about that game was Denver was down by just 1 point going into the half and then wheels came off as Atlanta behind teh Hotlanta crowd surged ahead. Well, things are a bit different today. For starters, Denver comes off one of the most embarassing losses of this year at home to the Celtics. Of course, the Celtics had revenge and hammered this team as Denver had beaten them Outright as big dogs coming into that game in Boston. Losing 76-114 is usually a nice swift kick in the behind for any team and George Karl I'm sure reamed his players after that terrible performance. Heck, J.R. Smith was the leading scorer in that game with 19 points as Denver shot a pitiful 3 for 21 from 3 point land in that contest (14%). Billups had just 3 points in that game. I'm sure Karl mentioned to Billups that he has to be more agressive in looking for his shot and taking his shot when he finds it come this game. In short, we have a Denver team that comes off losing by nearly 40 to the defending NBA Champs. Denver is at home facing a Hawks team that has revenge and a Hawks team that might not have the services of Bibby and Smith tonight as they are both questionable. My Hawks have lost by double-digits to the Lakers, Jazz and Blazers on this road trip and Denver is certainly capable of stepping up and winning big here at home given the revenge, the home crowd and coming off such an ugly loss. Denver is the same team that beat Utah at home by 20, Indiana by 20 and Miami by 11. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and the favorite in this contest is 4-0 the last 4 times they have met.
4 Unit Play. #518. Take Denver Nuggets -8 over Atlanta Hawks (Wednesday @ 9:05pm est). This seems like a sound spot to take the Nuggets here and we will roll with them. As bettors, we want as many factors to work in our favor as possible when making POD selections. For starters, Denver has revenge over the Hawks from a double-digit loss earlier this year when Denver went into Atlanta and lost 91-109 and Atlanta easily covered as 5 point chalk. What's wild about that game was Denver was down by just 1 point going into the half and then wheels came off as Atlanta behind teh Hotlanta crowd surged ahead. Well, things are a bit different today. For starters, Denver comes off one of the most embarassing losses of this year at home to the Celtics. Of course, the Celtics had revenge and hammered this team as Denver had beaten them Outright as big dogs coming into that game in Boston. Losing 76-114 is usually a nice swift kick in the behind for any team and George Karl I'm sure reamed his players after that terrible performance. Heck, J.R. Smith was the leading scorer in that game with 19 points as Denver shot a pitiful 3 for 21 from 3 point land in that contest (14%). Billups had just 3 points in that game. I'm sure Karl mentioned to Billups that he has to be more agressive in looking for his shot and taking his shot when he finds it come this game. In short, we have a Denver team that comes off losing by nearly 40 to the defending NBA Champs. Denver is at home facing a Hawks team that has revenge and a Hawks team that might not have the services of Bibby and Smith tonight as they are both questionable. My Hawks have lost by double-digits to the Lakers, Jazz and Blazers on this road trip and Denver is certainly capable of stepping up and winning big here at home given the revenge, the home crowd and coming off such an ugly loss. Denver is the same team that beat Utah at home by 20, Indiana by 20 and Miami by 11. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and the favorite in this contest is 4-0 the last 4 times they have met.
I went against my better judgment and played Denver tonight, even though I thought they were laying too many points. Luckily I was able to hedge at half and take Atlanta +. I don't know a lot about the NBA but one thing I know for sure, you can't trust anybody to hold a big lead. Houston and Denver the last two nights are prime examples of that.
FYI, looked back one month and here is the break down of IC's record on a daily basis:
2-0, 7x
1-1, 13x
0-2, 3x......bad news is all 3 have been in the last week. For those not managing their money properly they are probably stressing.
During the NBA all star break he released just one CBB play per day and went 0-1 3x and 1-0 3x, juiced out.
Superbowl Sunday went 2-0 on the big game but 0-2 in hoops for a 2-2 record.
Add in a couple pushes along the way and his record for the last month is 30-23-2, a very nice 56.6%. Money management and the rough stretches (like the current 5-9 run) will be no issue.
