I thought Obama saved the economy and stock market

[PatsFan1283]

The FED used their tools QE and low interest rates to avoid a great depression. I think people don't realize just how bad the 2008 crash was. We haven't had a correction in 6 years, yeah this is a big one, but when you have artificial growth it should be expected. We do have real growth right now, and the economy is starting to be healthy again. We're not there yet but I believe we're getting there. The people claiming we're going to have a crash, say it every day, and they're wrong 99.9% of the time. This is nothing like 2008.

Yeah, I agree with that. 2008 was (hopefully) a once in a lifetime event where there were bad investments all over the place and once they started to implode it became a house of cards.

I'm not sure there is that much bad debt out there now, I would think there isn't given how much tighter lending standards are now and also because the less fortunate really haven't participated in the current bubble that any type of landing should be a lot softer.

However, a true deflationary environment can sink a lot of ships. If you get assets returning to a fair value then you have a lot of that debt that can't be repaid.
Our current monetary system makes deflation way, way more harmful than it should be, which as an anarcho-capitalist you probably know.

The first QE was fine to stimulate some demand when the economy was pretty much dead. Bailing out the banks was probably a necessity. The issue is at some point between 666 and 2130 you have to responsibly look at the situation and try to get back to a normalized environment. The current leaders don't even think this is an issue and at some point I think they're going to be sorely mistaken.

As far as "crash" it is tough to say how far that would go. I remember in 2007 pretty much being 100% certain that housing was going to implode and knowing it was overvalued, however, I had no clue this was going to extend to mean that our entire financial system would become insolvent and need gov't intervention.

My comments in the thread were mostly about ZIRP creating asset bubbles thus causing bad investment rather than the entire economy veering towards any type of "crash"

 

[festeringZit]

You have to be the most immature 40 year old man I've ever come across. That's the type of "comeback" we used in middle school. No worries, though, I'm fairly immature at heart as well. And yeah, I have the basic knowledge that E! is king of the reality tv market. Crazy, eh?

Spot on.

 

[vitterd]

Spot on.

You contribute zero in all parts of the forum. Hateful scum

do you even gamble at all? Or just spam?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Another issue, and this leads to bad fiscal and monetary policy, is the way we measure the economy is misguided. Atleast it doesn't do enough to tell the whole story.

Figures like GDP, employment without looking at the value of jobs being created and corporate profits when about 40% of S&P earnings come from overseas don't go nearly far enough in explaining the standard of living of the population and whether it is getting better or worse. So we're using these raw numbers that can be deceiving based on nothing more than population growth and/or financial engineering.

There are far better ways to measure how people are doing like access to education, health care, housing, working full-time and needing limited gov't subsidy etc and we're failing pretty bad here. That is where the real concern is.

 

[festeringZit]

You contribute zero in all parts of the forum. Hateful scum

do you even gamble at all? Or just spam?

Pathological liar.

 

[vitterd]

Pathological liar.

Been waiting for that list of lies for years now.

Something funny about you calling me a liar .....being a lie.

Your contribution here is hate.

 

[festeringZit]

Been waiting for that list of lies for years now.

Something funny about you calling me a liar .....being a lie.

Your contribution here is hate.

Pathological liar.

Dance puppet boy.

 

[vitterd]

Pathological liar.

Dance puppet boy.

Zzzzzz. Your insults, your sports knowledge, your political views.....all lame.

 

[festeringZit]

Zzzzzz. Your insults, your sports knowledge, your political views.....all lame.

Dance puppet boy.

 

[vitterd]

Dance puppet boy.

Lame...... I mean really lame. Almost as lame as stalking another dude on the Internet. Another zit classic move.

 

[Ricboff]

artical in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago

http://www.wsj.com/articles/cbo-cuts-u-s-2015-gdp-forecast-to-2-from-2-9-1440511358

'The revenue bump also prompted the CBO to push back its estimate of when Congress would need to raise the government’s borrowing limit. The Treasury has been using emergency measures since mid-March to avoid breaching the ceiling. The CBO said it now expected those would be exhausted between mid-November and early December; previously it had said the debt limit would be reached in October or November.
Tax receipts have surged even though the economy has grown less than expected. The CBO revised down its GDP projections after a weak first quarter. It now expects 2% growth in economic output this year, down from a January estimate of 2.9%. Growth forecasts for the coming two years were revised up slightly to 3.1% and 2.7%, respectively.
Those revisions did little to change the long-term deficit outlook, which shows the national debt rising to about 77% of GDP over the next decade from its current level of 74% of GDP.
The CBO said the U.S. was on pace to add $7 trillion to the federal debt held by the public over the next decade, down $200 billion from its prior forecast due to lower interest-rate projections.'


how can they raise rates and not ultimately announce QE4?


puzzling....

 

[MantisToboggan]

It's good to see a relatively quiet Friday from the market heading into the weekend.

 

[Ricboff]

The Fed make their call- rates unchanged. To keep rates at emergency low levels despite no evidence to support its need? or is there?

what are the ramifications to the govt budget with rates at 'normalized levels'?

https://www.informationstation.org/...legrants2015&gclid=CJC_kbTJ_8cCFQgaaQodB_MGrA


'This is the point that the country has reached with its interest on the national debt.
Last year, the U.S. spent $430 billion on interest payments alone. This means that every year, tax payers are spending $3,500 just on interest payments. This is money that isn’t going to pay for roads, bridges, education, medical research or defense.
It gets scarier. National debt interest rates are historically low at the moment – around 2.5 percent. When they rise, interest payments will rise exponentially thanks to the wonders of compounding rates. Say interest rates rise to 5 percent – still low by historical standards. That means we will owe nearly $1 trillion a year in interest alone. That’s about two-thirds of what the federal government brings in each year in total income tax revenue!'







wtf?

 

[Ricboff]

the next big day?....will congress fret over raising the debt ceiling?...um, yes it's that time of year...

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/10/lew-raise-debt-limit-to-stop-unnecessary-risks.html

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Thursday reaffirmed his view that the government could stay funded by extraordinary measures through late October, but urged Congress to raise the borrowing limit and avoid unnecessary turmoil.
In a letter, Lew noted that the Treasury will reach its borrowing capacity once it exhausts emergency options. The department has implemented various measures, such as suspension of certain investments, to pay government bills ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline to extend spending authority.
"In the past, failure to raise the debt limit in a timely manner has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence, financial markets and the credit rating of the United States. To avoid these unnecessary risks, I respectfully urge Congress to raise the debt limit as soon as possible," Lew wrote.

 

[Ricboff]

annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd Europe going to keep things rolling!!!!!!!!!!!


US right behind?.....



http://www.theguardian.com/business...pean-central-bank-mario-draghi-inflation-live

here's Mario.....


'Facing a deterioration in the external environment, the ECB nudged down its economic forecasts and opened the door for potentially increasing the scale of the QE programme. All-in-all, the changes to its macroeconomic forecasts were fairly marginal; but to put things into perspective, this is a first downgrade to the euro area’s prospects since last December, so the changes may be small, but they are symbolically important......
As in March and in June, the ECB is on the record stating that it is prepared to ease policy if data does not meet expectations. At a time of heightened global uncertainty, even such a simple message is a good start.

 

[Ricboff]

and China to add fuel................another 25 basis point drop; 6th time in LESS THAN A YEAR. I think it's fair to say Mr.Jinping ain't going to accept a slowdown quietly.......


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/china-cuts-interest-rates-reserve-ratios-to-counter-slowdown/article26948247/

China’s central bank cut interest rates for the sixth time since November on Friday in another attempt to jump start a slowing economy.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on its website that it was lowering the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, effective from Oct. 24.
The one-year benchmark deposit rate was also lowered by 25 basis points to 1.50 per cent.
China has pursued its most aggressive policy easing cycle this year since the 2008/09 global financial crisis, as policy makers seek to invigorate an economy beset by weak demand and excessive industrial capacity.

 

[Ricboff]

how many times have they talked about raising rates?...........


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...gdp-data-expected-to-show-slowdown-2015-10-25


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy has looked shaky of late, and an expected weak reading on third-quarter gross domestic product should confirm that. As a result, the Federal Reserve is again expected to keep interest rates near zero.
The Fed decision, due Wednesday, and the GDP report, coming Thursday, will take center stage this week.
“Weak data and continued economic uncertainties at home and abroad mean a data dependent Fed is currently stuck with zero rates, no matter how little it might like that,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist North America at BNP Paribas.

​

The big question is whether the Fed will hint at a December move.
“The policy statement verbiage will be analyzed to death for clues as to the likelihood of a move in mid-December,” said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.
But analysts aren’t expecting many clues.
“The FOMC has tried to dissuade markets from expecting any explicit signals about upcoming policy changes, emphasizing data dependence. As such, we anticipate no meaningful changes to the policy guidance language,” said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
That doesn’t mean the Fed won’t hike in December, it just means the committee is keeping its options open, he said. In September, 13 of 17 Fed officials backed a rate hike before the end of the year.
Whether the Fed can move depends critically on incoming data, especially the October and November employment reports that will come in prior to the Fed’s December meeting.
The Fed wants to see more labor market strength so it can be reasonably confident inflation is moving higher.
The U.S. central bank will get a slew of new economic reports that could factor into a December move. ....lol
Analysts polled by MarketWatch predict gross domestic product decelerated to 2.1% in the third quarter from 3.9% growth in the second quarter.
Some economists said the report could look deceptively weak, as some of the weakness will come from an expected inventory correction.
Final sales, which strips out inventory behavior, are expected to be firm on strong consumer spending.
But others see the third-quarter GDP as a harbinger of slower growth to come.
Other key data points are the employment cost index, a good proxy of wage gains, which is expected to firm in the third quarter. Higher wage gains would give the Fed confidence inflation might be around the corner.
On the other hand, durable-goods orders are expected to drop for the second straight month in September, another sign that global woes and the strong dollar are crimping U.S. manufacturing.

'.......what to do........what to do...............'

 

[Dave007inVegas]

November 3rd will be Armageddon.

Lew. Secretary of the Treasury.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/10/25/jack-lew-debt-limit-column/74585584/

Our economy has made remarkable progress since the Great Recession. American businesses have created 13.2 million jobs since early 2010, jobless claims are at 40-year lows, consumer confidence remains healthy and small businesses are planning further increases in their payrolls. We are on track for further economic growth — yet with eight days, as of Monday, until Treasury runs out of borrowing authority on Nov. 3, some in Congress are endangering this progress by once again manufacturing a crisis for our country. By waiting to the last minute to act on the debt limit, Congress could cause a terrible accident. This is not an abstraction; failure to raise the debt limit would mean devastating impacts for taxpayers, consumers and businesses.

Yet…

http://freebeacon.com/issues/government-collects-record-high-taxes-in-first-10-months-of-fy-2015/

The federal government collected a record amount of taxes in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2015, exceeding $2.6 trillion in revenue, according to the latest monthly Treasury Department statement.

Despite the record revenue, the federal government ran a deficit of $465 billion.

WTF?

 

[PatsFan1283]

how many times have they talked about raising rates?...........


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...gdp-data-expected-to-show-slowdown-2015-10-25


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy has looked shaky of late, and an expected weak reading on third-quarter gross domestic product should confirm that. As a result, the Federal Reserve is again expected to keep interest rates near zero.
The Fed decision, due Wednesday, and the GDP report, coming Thursday, will take center stage this week.
“Weak data and continued economic uncertainties at home and abroad mean a data dependent Fed is currently stuck with zero rates, no matter how little it might like that,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist North America at BNP Paribas.

​

The big question is whether the Fed will hint at a December move.
“The policy statement verbiage will be analyzed to death for clues as to the likelihood of a move in mid-December,” said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.
But analysts aren’t expecting many clues.
“The FOMC has tried to dissuade markets from expecting any explicit signals about upcoming policy changes, emphasizing data dependence. As such, we anticipate no meaningful changes to the policy guidance language,” said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
That doesn’t mean the Fed won’t hike in December, it just means the committee is keeping its options open, he said. In September, 13 of 17 Fed officials backed a rate hike before the end of the year.
Whether the Fed can move depends critically on incoming data, especially the October and November employment reports that will come in prior to the Fed’s December meeting.
The Fed wants to see more labor market strength so it can be reasonably confident inflation is moving higher.
The U.S. central bank will get a slew of new economic reports that could factor into a December move. ....lol
Analysts polled by MarketWatch predict gross domestic product decelerated to 2.1% in the third quarter from 3.9% growth in the second quarter.
Some economists said the report could look deceptively weak, as some of the weakness will come from an expected inventory correction.
Final sales, which strips out inventory behavior, are expected to be firm on strong consumer spending.
But others see the third-quarter GDP as a harbinger of slower growth to come.
Other key data points are the employment cost index, a good proxy of wage gains, which is expected to firm in the third quarter. Higher wage gains would give the Fed confidence inflation might be around the corner.
On the other hand, durable-goods orders are expected to drop for the second straight month in September, another sign that global woes and the strong dollar are crimping U.S. manufacturing.

'.......what to do........what to do...............'

According to the CME futures markets, you have to go all the way out to March to get a > 50% probability of a rate hike.

Given that we're in an election cycle and this is going to be a big current event, I could see central banking policy gaining traction as a campaign issue.

LOL who am I kidding? I'm sure there will be way more important stuff to talk about like DMVs closing and whether a candidate would go to a gay wedding or not...

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Did you jump on Obama’s Green Energy bandwagon?


If you did how’s that working out?


Green energy investments have been shredded over the past eight years, gutting shareholder value and calling the financial viability of renewable energy into question.


The Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund, which tracks the alternative energy sector, is down 15 percent over the past eight years. Barron’s reports that losses among individual ETFs in the green energy sector, however, are much worse. Guggenheim Solar ETF has lost investors 88 percent over the same timeframe, with PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio losing a similar 82 percent.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/28/g...g-losing-shareholders-millions/#ixzz3ptd8I2xy