Who cares about the average bettor? do u know how silly it is to make posts about the "average bettor"?
You cant handicap games based on what the average bettor thinks.
You handicap your game based on the raw numbers then come up with a result..
And when you see a line like Jaguars-6, you can be thankful to the average bettor. Because the average bettor doesnt even know diddley squat about the jags offensive line. the average bettor doesnt even care!
(That doesnt mean that joe six pack isnt right 50% of the time!!!)
Seahawks are looking really terrible this year. They have absolutely no recievers. (believe it or not i have Hasselbeck as my fantasy QB, given to me courtesy of the automatic pick because i signed on my league late due to a killer hangover.) They have lots of issues all over the line and key positions.
I would be betting against the seahawks this weekend, but there is one thing putting me off of this team.
the 49ers defense is the second team with a defense that played over 37 minutes in their game on sunday.
This to me equates to a defense that has played a full extra quarter of defense.
Seahawks may suck on offense, but going up aagainst a tired defense, they may just pull it off.
(cleveland falls in the same category defensively.)
There is far more to handicapping than betting based on the numbers. Situational betting is the key in most cases. Betting on teams after embarrassing losses or poor performances has long been a good method to winning. It certainly works better with some teams/coaches than others. The reason the average bettor is wrong more often than not is because they just look at the last game and not how that team that just lost by 24 to the Atlanta Falcons will respond. They don't look at how a bad team that just blew out an opponent is not likely to play that well again or maybe they just looked good because they played another bad team. The oddsmaker sets lines based on perception. Situational betting is very important.
ope:
