I disagree with ICEMAN, hope the SB lands right on the number

[PapaParlay]

Disagree with cappers on super bowl lines,

FINAL SCORE:

PITTSBURGH 17
ARIZONA 13


ARIZONA WILL COVER AND UNDER....

If you know the score already you should be able to make bank off of props...Pittsburgh to score exactly 17 is +1500.

 

[HinesWard86]

Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.

From 2001-2005, 9.82% of NFL games landed on 7....so yes, that assumption is absolutely correct. But you knew that.

 

[whalewager]

Yalls some smart mudders in here...

 

[Illini]

You are right, the books get killed...but just for one day...

You will NEVER, EVER hurt the top tier books like Pinny, CRIS, and Olympic...

They would swallow their loss and come back stronger than ever for March Madness...

Did you know that most books do better on March Madness than the first week of Football for new accounts?

Didn't know that, and I'm surprised by it. Is it just because most people bet too many games?

 

[nimue77]

It's the 2nd most likely outcome and, of course, it depends on how much vig you are paying. At -110 on each side it's definitely worth it.

How do u justify betting Steelers -6.5, Cards +7.5. I know u can get a good reward for no risk, but really what r the chances the game lands on exactly 7. Is it even worth the vig for such a longshot?

 

[nimue77]

25 cents is too much imo. I wouldn't pay more than 20 cents for 7 middle.

Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.

 

[Fishhead]

25 cents is too much imo. I wouldn't pay more than 20 cents for 7 middle.

I probably wouldn't either, unless I was trying to give action someplace for some reason.

 

[patswin]

I was able to get pitt -6.5 +100 last night, hoping this line goes back to 7 so I can get +7.5 -115

 

[Fishhead]

i was able to get pitt -6.5 +100 last night, hoping this line goes back to 7 so i can get +7.5 -115

wow!

 

[patswin]

wow!

yeah i know, gotta love vip books. No juice odds on the sb promo, you can buy .5 pt at -115. Hoping this line gets to 7 again so i can get the +7.5 at -115. This outfit is becoming my favorite

 

[Iceman]

Dont get me worng I wouldnt turn it down if it happened, the thing is I dont want to hear all the "sky is falling" threads that would be everywhere and believe me they would be everywhere.

I have a huge majority of my bankroll out in offshore world and though I dont think anything will change, I dont like worrying.

I dont know enough about the ins and outs of a sportsbook and their holds on stuff but I am sure if the score ended 27-20 Pittsburgh, many would be reporting losses. As for the local Vegas places, I couldnt careless how they do as they obviously will be okay but it's the offshore world I would be worried about.

 

[BAGIANT]

Didnt most books lose last year when the Giants upset the Pats?

Actually the books got killed last year when the Giants upset the Pats. Many people, like myself, had the Giants on the ML.