Let's Be Clear, The U.S. Economy Is Just Awful
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"The latest GDP numbers tell a terrible story, but it doesn’t have to be this way. The answer is 4% growth. Here’s how to get it."
Our economy “continues to heal,” said the acting secretary, Rebecca Blank. We’ve now had “
12 quarters of consecutive GDP growth.” Anyway, if we’re not growing much, it’s not our fault, since the economy faces “headwinds,” namely a decline in state and local spending and those pesky problems in Europe. Therefore, we’ve got to push for President Obama’s policies “by ending tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas,” etc., etc.
The acting secretary also trumpeted upward GDP revisions for the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012. She didn’t mention downward revisions for the first half of 2010 that brought GDP to a little over 2%.
Prior readings were nearly 4%
The truth is that the latest statistics show an economy that is just awful. When President Obama was elected, the unemployment rate was 6.8%. When he took the oath, it was 7.8%. The next month,
the rate cracked the 8% mark and has been there ever since.
This is the worst recovery from a recession in at least 30 years – and,
according to some, including Stanford’s Edward Lazear, the worst in all American history. While apologists argue that the recovery’s anemia is a function of the recession’s severity, they haven’t read history.
Normally, a sharp, deep recession leads to a sharp, big recovery. The analogy is a rubber band: the more it’s stretched, the more powerfully it snaps back. Shallow recessions breed shallow recoveries. Normally, the economy regains everything it loses in a recession, and then some. If it loses a lot, then it will typically gain a lot. That’s not happening this time around.
The recession officially ended in June 2009. After last week’s revisions, the economy’s decline in 2008 and 2009 has been calculated at 3.1% instead of 3.5%, a bit shallower than before but still devastating. In 2010, the effect of stimulus spending turns out to be even worse than we had thought. Growth in that year was revised down last week to 2.4% from 3% by the Commerce Department (though you’d never know it from Ms. Blank’s press release). Growth in 2011 was revised upward by one-tenth of a point to a miserable 1.8%, and that appears to be the path on which we are stuck. Growth from April to June this year was just 1.5%.
These minuscule numbers would seem to reduce to fantasy the title of the book the Bush Institute has just published,
The 4% Solution. The book makes the case that the U.S. can increase its rate of growth from a post-World-War-II average of 3% to a sustainable, real rate of 4%. Can we really do it?
Again, it’s normally not much of a problem for an economy, coming out of a bad recession, to accelerate to 4%. For example, we grew at 5.4% in 1976 after the 1974-75 recession and at 7.2% in 1984
after the 1982 recession. But the best we’ve done so far in a calendar year after this one is 2.4%.
So the United States really has two problems: first, it hasn’t recovered sufficiently to get back aboard the trend line after the 2008-09 recession, and, second, even if we do have a recovery spurt, we don’t have the policies to get us to sustainable 4% — much less 3% — growth. The Congressional Budget Office, whose projections have been way too optimistic over the past few years, has
forecast 2% growth for 2012 and 1.1% for 2013
But we could have policies that will get us growing again. Growth of 4% is a blood-quickening aspiration, but it is also a practical goal.
Those policies begin with two principles:
First, growth must be the focus of all economic policy. Growth lowers unemployment, lowers deficits and debt, raises opportunity. Every policy change should be judged by the question, “Does it increase growth?” If not, forget it.
Second, the role of government is to help create an environment that fosters growth. Government cannot, on a long-term basis, create growth or jobs. But it can enact the policies that allow the private sector to create them.
The 4% Solution is a serious, non-partisan book with a foreword by President Bush and 21 chapters, five by Nobel Prize-winning economists and the rest by experts in their fields, that propose ways to get to 4% growth. In interviews about the book, I have been asked frequently what we should do first. What gets the biggest, fastest bang for the effort?
Here are my answers:
- Enact comprehensive tax reform: lower rates, broaden the base by eliminating deductions and exemptions, tax consumption rather than income and investment, and make the Tax Code simpler. These ideas have broad support among all kinds of economists. There is a deal here that parties can reach. (Short of broad reform, do two things: extend current tax rates for 10 years and cut the corporate rate to 20%.)
- Cut government spending. Several of the book’s contributors, citing important research, show that federal spending cuts increase growth in the long run by leaving more dollars in the pockets of businesses and individuals. (David Malpass has a great idea: get rid of the debt ceiling and replace it by a statutory glide path to get the U.S. to much lower deficit/GDP and debt/GDP ratio in five years.)
- Expand energy resource development at home. Abundant energy (and the U.S. has more such resources than any other country) lowers the cost of economic growth. (Simple steps: approve the Keystone pipeline and make it clear government won’t stand in the way of fracking for natural gas.)
- Rationalize immigration policy. Stop bringing smart foreigners to the U.S. to be educated and then sending them back to their home countries. If they stayed, they could be among our greatest sources of entrepreneurial strength. (Immediately, offer a green card to any foreigner who gets a graduate degree in the United States.)
But to accomplish any of this, we need a real sense of urgency. We face a serious crisis, and only 4% growth can solve it. Plus, growth has the advantage of being an uplifting, optimistic, bright, American goal. We can do it.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesglassman/2012/07/31/lets-be-clear-the-u-s-economy-is-just-awful/