I personally think it's overrated and there's a misconception that just because the larger percentage of bettors are recreational and/or less knowledgeable than experienced gamblers, that it's better to always go against the numbers.
Even if you take 100 bettors who aren't experienced, knowledgeable, or professional, in most cases their wagers are going to level out which makes a small percentage leaning to one team or total meaningless in my opinion. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong...
Even if you take 100 bettors who aren't experienced, knowledgeable, or professional, in most cases their wagers are going to level out which makes a small percentage leaning to one team or total meaningless in my opinion. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong...
Ball-on accurate RightSide!
I believe in these couple for truths:
Info like bookiereport posts is a small subset of what is going on. Therefore, it is very limited in value. Not busting on bookie. Just speaking the truth. I appreciate all his efforts. Small minded children on here (most of the posters) get excited when any info wins three in a row and can't wait to flock and clog up those threads.
If there was a dependable measure of widespread plays...... I will guarantee that over time you could fade those plays on big-time isolated games (by isolated, please understand, I mean like Monday Night Football or some week night NCAA FB). You would win far more than you lose on those types of games. Just the way things work. "Games that are isolated" means every Tom, Dick, and Chumlee will want to make a play. Of course, most will be chasing. Line may move, more dumbasses will follow, and there you go. A great opportunity for really sharp people to make bank. The more uncomfortable the game feels….. The better to play it!
Many people will understand the wisdom in this post. Even more will remember it. Very few will have the discipline to use this approach. A main reason why hardly no one can survive on our side of the counter!
My buddy has had huge success the last couple months.....
I finally asked him what he's doing. he said the same thing he's always been doing, handicapping the games the way he does, and then if the public is on the same side, he reduces his play by half, if public is on the opposite side he likes, he adds to it...
He's done very well for 3 months or so. All Straight Bets, nearly 70%
I finally asked him what he's doing. he said the same thing he's always been doing, handicapping the games the way he does, and then if the public is on the same side, he reduces his play by half, if public is on the opposite side he likes, he adds to it...
He's done very well for 3 months or so. All Straight Bets, nearly 70%
56% use the % numbers to some degree.@)
I like what Defying had to say and it makes sense to work it into your handicapping
Patterns definately emerge it is worth paying attention to.
For example if In March if 80% of the Pub is on a home team in Hockey & the line drops or does not move the home team is 6-6 in a ML sport that is significant.
Yet when a road team has 80% of the Pub is on e Road team in Hockey & the line drops or does not move the Road team is 6-0 and covered the PL 3X.
I like what Defying had to say and it makes sense to work it into your handicapping
Patterns definately emerge it is worth paying attention to.
For example if In March if 80% of the Pub is on a home team in Hockey & the line drops or does not move the home team is 6-6 in a ML sport that is significant.
Yet when a road team has 80% of the Pub is on e Road team in Hockey & the line drops or does not move the Road team is 6-0 and covered the PL 3X.
It depends as some games are way more public than others as the Super Bowl would be a good example where the books were begging for Denver money and obviously taking a stand with that line since there is piles of money risked on the Super Bowl compared to other games......That said, does it really matter in a Sun Belt game or more under-the-radar games? No.......
If its the last game on the card at the end of college football Saturday where the chasers are thirsting and all on the side expected then yeah its a factor to consider.....
This would apply to RLM as well on the bigger games that they expecting many people to watch and risk on.
If its the last game on the card at the end of college football Saturday where the chasers are thirsting and all on the side expected then yeah its a factor to consider.....
This would apply to RLM as well on the bigger games that they expecting many people to watch and risk on.
