The western “Ukraine will win” narrative collapsed early all across the board … even within Ukraine the big doubts coming up now.
-> The last time the situation got stuck, they kept the public motivated with “Free the Leopards” narrative, then Ukrainian will win they said.
But this time the war is not “stuck”, this time pictures of destroyed leopards went through the world, no advances were made in the last 3 weeks. Only huge losses.
What will they do now? They need to keep the public, us the people, entertains and motivated.
The F16 discussion did not pick up the same steam as the Leopard thing. The offensive failed it’s objectives.
-> The last time the situation got stuck, they kept the public motivated with “Free the Leopards” narrative, then Ukrainian will win they said.
But this time the war is not “stuck”, this time pictures of destroyed leopards went through the world, no advances were made in the last 3 weeks. Only huge losses.
What will they do now? They need to keep the public, us the people, entertains and motivated.
The F16 discussion did not pick up the same steam as the Leopard thing. The offensive failed it’s objectives.
Putin scammed the world by faking the coup to fool NATO and eliminate disloyal high ranking military inside Russia without protests from other officials. The ploy also duped Ukraine into advancing, thinking Russia was weak, thus revealing their entire offensive, what he did it was a genius military tactic that will go down as one of the greatest moves in military history
Ukraine Update: U.S. agrees to send cluster munitions to Ukraine 
by Mark Sumner for Daily Kos
Daily Kos Staff
Friday, July 07, 2023 at 2:20:05p PDT
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...to-send-cluster-munitions-to-Ukraine#comments
On Friday, the Pentagon announced a new $800 million package of military assistance for Ukraine that includes additional rockets for Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS ammo, more Stryker armored personnel carriers, additional precision aerial munitions, and more mine clearing equipment. That package also includes something controversial: either the M483 artillery shell, or the longer-range M864. These are Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions shells, also known as DPICM shells or cluster munitions.
This decision may well be condemned by other countries, including U.S. allies who are also providing military support to Ukraine. All forms of cluster munitions have been banned by over 100 nations. The reason is that, like land mines, unexploded “bomblets” delivered by such shells can linger months or years after a battle, where they can injure or kill civilians.
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However, one of the nations that hasn’t signed on to the cluster weapon ban is Ukraine; another is the United States. And it’s not as if cluster munitions haven’t already been used in this invasion. They have, by Russia, which deliberately fired these munitions into civilian areas.
The condemnation of these weapons is understandable. They’ve been known to lead to a number of civilian deaths in numerous countries within Africa and the Middle East. In particular, cluster weapons have been a terror in Syria, where at least 1,435 civilians—including 518 children—have been killed due to their indiscriminate use. Both Russian occupying forces and the Russian-controlled regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad have blanketed cities with these weapons. Russia has used these weapons in attacks on Ukrainian cities.
For Russia, civilian deaths due to cluster weapons aren’t a bug: They’re a feature.
The reason that cluster shells have developed such an evil reputation and have become such a source of misery comes back to two things: how Russia is using them, and how Russia is building them. Not only is Russia deploying these weapons in urban situations where the “bomblets” inside each shell are more likely to be encountered by civilians, but the Russian shells have a high rate of “duds” which fail to explode when deployed, yet can still go off when disturbed at a later date. There have even been reports of Russia deliberately coloring the bomblets so that they look like toys, encouraging children to pick them up. The deaths and injuries from these weapons are real.
However, there are legitimate reasons why these weapons were developed and why they can still be necessary on the battlefield. That’s because they are highly effective in dealing with military forces that are dug into defensive positions.
The shells that the U.S. is sending are “dual purpose” in the sense that they can go after enemy vehicles as well as troops. The M483 officially contains a total of 88 M42 and M46 grenades, which it can deliver at a range of 17 kilometers. The M864 contains 72 grenades with a range of 29 km. Calling the contents “grenades” is something of a misnomer. What they actually contain are small explosive charges derived from these grenades. Each high-explosive bomblet has been adapted so that a direct hit can penetrate armor or take out a hardened position. A single shell can even take out multiple armored targets if enough of the bomblets strike each target. However, they are also very effective as anti-personnel weapons when exploded above a trench or other areas with multiple enemy soldiers. Depending on the study (and the details of the situation), a single dual-purpose shell can replace anywhere from four to 15 conventional artillery shells when being used against prepared defensive positions.
Here’s a video from 14 years ago looking at how these shells were used in the war in Iraq.
And here’s another talking about why Ukraine was already using its own limited supply of cluster weapons to attack Russian positions some months ago.
In the counteroffensive that began in the first week of June, including efforts to liberate captured areas around Bakhmut, Ukraine has had to deal with both Russian armor advancing out from defensive positions, and Russian forces fighting from trenches. Dual-purpose shells have a high value in dealing with both.
For some time, Ukraine made it clear that what it needed most was high-quality air defense systems to protect its cities against nightly attacks from Russian missiles and Iranian-made drones. Ukraine eventually got those systems, including the U.S.-designed Patriot. Then Ukraine made it clear it couldn’t conduct a counteroffensive without Western tanks to deal with Russia’s advantages in the number of both men and vehicles. After a long delay, Ukraine got those Western tanks.
Now Ukraine is making it clear that for the counteroffensive to be effective, it needs improved air support and dual-purpose shells. Western planes are unlikely to arrive until around the end of the year. So for Ukraine to turn the gains it has made so far into a definite victory before the fall rains once again make forward progress difficult, cluster munitions are the best bet. It’s not an F-16 delivering precision strikes from miles above and even more miles away, but it’s something.
That said, Ukraine still needs those planes.
The other thing that Ukraine is requesting (and has been requesting since the invasion began) is more long-range weapons. In particular, Ukraine has been asking the United States for ATACMS rockets. These are a family of weapons that can be deployed from either M270 artillery or another 155mm artillery gun. They have a range up to 300 km, high-precision guidance, and can deliver either a single explosive warhead or as many as 300 anti-personnel bomblets.
Though it’s still far from official, there are reports that the Biden administration is finally close to giving in to Ukraine’s requests for ATACMS. An announcement is expected within the next week. Just as HIMARS helped shape the battlefield when it first arrived, and the U.K. “storm shadow” cruise missiles have been striking Russian forces away from the front in the last week, ATACMS could finally give Ukraine the ability to repeatedly and accurately strike Russian stockpiles, transportation routes, barracks, and headquarters almost anywhere in Ukraine. Including Crimea.
The combination of dual-purpose shells and ATACMS should give Ukraine’s counteroffensive added impetus, especially as Ukraine approaches some of those big defensive positions that Russia has been preparing for over a year.
AROUND THE FRONTLINES
Russian forces visibly pulled back from the area around Zherebyanky on Thursday after several days of fighting in the area between that town and the already liberated Pyatykhatky. However, it appears that in at least one case an abandoned trench was a trap, with mines exploding after Ukrainian forces reached the area. Russian sources are treating this as if a large Ukrainian unit was lost, but the video makes it clear this was literally a handful of men at most. Still, it’s another reason why progress through these areas has been slower than many expected. Likely Ukrainian fire on Russian positions has now moved to the south of Hladke.
While Ukrainian forces don’t appear to have taken the town of Robotyne yet, the liberated area has broadened nearby and Ukrainian forces are pressing down both west and east of the highway that has been the central line of combat for the past month.
Both Russian and Ukrainian sources report heavy fighting directly north of Staromaiorske. Ukraine may be moving to capture this town on Friday with forces headed due south and coming in from the northeast. On Thursday, there were multiple reports of Russian equipment lost in this area. Ukrainian forces were also reported to be approaching Pryyutne on the western side of this zone, as well as moving to the southeast below Novodonetske.
For days, there have been reports that Ukraine was attacking to the south out of Vuhledar and even reports of “big progress.” But I’ve yet to see one map indicating any of this progress or any evidence that any of the area to the south of this much-bombed village has changed hands. Northeast of Vuhledar, Russia reportedly launched over 20 assaults on Marinka with no evident change in control.
South of Bakhmut, Ukraine is reportedly close to taking the town of Klishchivka. In fact, since my information in this area is deliberately a couple of days behind, that may have already happened. But what has already been captured may actually be more important than the town, as can be seen on this oddly angled image.
Just west of Klishchivka is a ridge of high ground cut through by a valley. Ukraine now appears to hold that valley as well as the hill on the north. It also holds most of the hill to the south. This positions Ukrainian forces to pick apart Russian troops in Klishchivka, as well as to hit more distant targets to the north and south. Ukraine could continue from Klishchivka to the north if it wasn’t immediately pressured by Russian occupiers in Bakhmut, or it might turn east toward Opytne. Either way, this flank of Russia's control appears to be crumbling.
As a bonus, it turns out that the Russian forces getting their butts kicked in Klishchivka are the 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade. This unit was directly involved in the slaughter and torture at Bucha last year. They’ve been on Telegram all day whining about how “unfair” their position is and how “illegal” the orders were that are making them defend Klishchivka against a superior force. They should really be experts on illegal orders.
Things are moving less quickly in the north. Ukraine again took some area near Berkhivka which it had walked away from last week. However, Russia is still encamped on a knob of high ground near the village of Dubovo-Vasylivka. Until Ukraine can cut off that position, holding the Berkhivka area will be extremely difficult.
In the north, from Kreminna all the way up to Kupyansk … nothing happened. Or at least, nothing happened that was big enough to make its way to Telegram and Twitter. However, there is one exception. Over a month ago, I reported that Ukraine had finally taken the town of Kuzemivka, potentially ending months of back-and-forth battles. I was wrong. Russia retook the area about two weeks ago and is now reportedly attacking, again, neighboring Novoselivske. That anything remains of either location is a surprise, but … don’t expect this to amount to much.
Russian sources are reporting that a Swedish CV90 has been destroyed in the north; if so, it would be the first. A lot of the NATO equipment still seems to be held in reserve.
More Russian stuff blowing up, plus you don't mess around with Zelenskyy
Friday, July 07, 2023 at 5:24:26p PDT
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...you-don-t-mess-around-with-Zelenskyy#comments
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been underestimated his entire political career.
The latest to make the mistake of thinking a former comedian could be pushed around is Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, a mostly pro-Russian head of state in a NATO country visited by Zelenskyy on Thursday.
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Bulgaria actually has a pro-Ukrainian Parliament and prime minister that supports arms exports to Ukraine, but Radev decided he’d school Zelenskyy.
It didn't end well for Radev.
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This is most likely an ammunition depot in the city of Sorokyne, which is southeast of Luhansk and almost on the border with Russia.
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With the official announcement today that the United States will supply Ukraine with cluster munitions, it is worth noting that the first country to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions was Russia.
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Turning AK-47s into an anti-drone weapon that looks like a DIY Gatling gun.
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This is a casualty count you don’t normally see but carries a lot of weight.
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This is one more Russian ammo dump going kaboom. The more, the better.
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Smart Russians surrender.
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A recruitment poster for the Russian Army. I shit you not.
Uncle Vlad Wants You!
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The trauma of war lasts many decades after the last shots are fired.
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Is it surprising that Prigozhin’s apartment would have severed heads and sledgehammers?
Might make a good band name though — Severed heads and Sledgehammers.
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And finally, some uplifting items.
More Russian stuff blowing up, plus notorious Russian sub commander is killed (window not involved)
Monday, July 10, 2023 at 3:11:58p PDT
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...mander-is-killed-window-not-involved#comments
Recommend Story102
This is a great big bavovna. Even better if it turns out it was a Russian mine.
The climate crisis is happening now
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It’s bad enough leaving the dead to rot in the field, but booby trapping bodies is a special form of disrespect for the dead.
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Video No. 1 showing why Russia will never win this war.
Video No. 2 showing why Russia will never win this war. Cannon fodder not realizing that the job of cannon fodder is to shut up and die.
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You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
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Everything Russia touches turns to this.
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Remember when one of Russia’s big goals was to demilitarize Ukraine?
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Gosh, what a shame.
This is a highly unusual case for Russia because Rzhitsky did not fall out of a window.
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Russia propagandists have a case of HIMARS envy.
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This reminds me of that famous photo of a dead animal in the middle of the road that a highway crew had painted a stripe over.
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This is how the day started out for Sweden’s application to join NATO.
And this is how it ended. Makes you wonder what the deal was, whether it involved Kurdish issues and why Erdogan brought up EU membership in the first place.
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It’s located at the intersection with War Crimes Boulevard.
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“Oi u luzi chervona kalyna” or “Oh, the Red Viburnum in the Meadow.”
‘Chervona Kalina’ is an old song (1914) evoking Ukraine’s yearning for independence and freedom.
