Tuesday, June 06, 2023 at 6:57:59p PDT
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-Attacks-Not-2-on-Kremlin-May-3-2023#comments
Three Different Explosions on the Kremlin Senate Dome, May 3, 2023. Images are at start of explosions.
Note: This previously published story was missing the figure for the 2:27 am Attack, Version 2. This figure has been added and republished. This picture is the best example of photoshopping and should have been with the story. Sorry for this.
There were 3 Drone “Attacks” on the Kremlin on May 3, 2023, and not 2, as widely reported ! The evidence is incontrovertible based upon the available videos of the “attacks.” Ukraine was Not responsible for the “attacks”, as a careful analysis of the video evidence shows that the “attacks” were both staged and photoshopped. But, NO drone “attacks” may have occurred. This article describes the basis of these statements in detail.
For those who don’t want to slog thru the details, a summary of the findings and conclusions is given at the end of the article.
This Addendum is to the prior story, “
UPDATE: Kremlin Drone Attack Staged & Photoshopped,” which primarily addressed the third, or last, attack. After posting the Update, some of the commentators had very good questions about the first attack, and asked if it was real. Detailed research into these questions revealed a third attack and two versions of the first attack. This Addendum is largely devoted to the first two attacks, but also describes a new finding on the last attack.
(Notes: For ease of reading, the sources for this article are given at the end of the article. The word attack is shown with quotes only at the beginning and the end of the article, but should be understood to have quotes throughout. The quotes mean that the attack may not be real attacks.)
BACKGROUND and IMPORTANCE
In the early hours of Wednesday May 3, 2023, Russia claimed that the Kremlin was attacked by two drones, and released video footage of the attacks to prove their claims. Russia blamed Ukraine and the United States for the attacks. Furthermore, Russia claimed that the attacks were an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.
These attacks, videos and claims were the major news of the day in all the major and minor news outlets around the world, including Russia, where there were impassioned calls for revenge. Ukraine and the US vehemently denied being involved in the attacks. There were major discussions in the media about who was behind these attacks, and how Ukraine could, or couldn’t have been responsible for these attacks. These stories remained as one of the top stories for the following days, and are still being raised today.
This author was alarmed by Russia’s claim of an assassination attempt on Putin. Such an attempt is an act of war, and Russia’s claim is justification of a formal Declaration of War on Ukraine. If Russia were to have followed thru with such a declaration, it could lead to WWIII and a nuclear war. Fortunately, such a declaration didn’t occur, and Putin didn’t even mention this attack in his Victory Day speech on May 9. However, Russia could still return to this attack in the future.
The author first published a story about this attack on May 7, where he argued that the attacks may have been staged and photoshopped. He received several excellent comments that led to a closer examination of the last attack (as defined below), which led to a major rewrite of the first story, focusing upon this attack. He then received further excellent comments and questions pertaining to the first attack. They led to further examination of the first attack. This Addendum is largely directed to answering these comments and questions. It also describes a new, and important, finding about the last attack.
FIRST TWO ATTACKS
The Scene of the First Two Attacks – Items of Importance Identified (Workers not present yet)
The videos showing the first two attacks were captured by a CCTV camera looking north from the south end of the Kremlin, with the famous St. Basil Cathedral on the right. The picture below is labeled with the various points of interest. Included are three areas that will become important later. The first is labeled “Senate Dome” and is on the far left. The second is labeled “Time”, and shows the time of the attack on the clock in the Spasskaya Tower. The third is an arealabeled “Workers”, and is where workers are seen during the 2:43 am attack.
Two attacks are seen from this perspective. The first is at 2:27 am in the wee hours of Wednesday, May 3, 2023. The second is at 2:43 am, also in the wee hours of the same day.
Senate Dome – Items of Importance Identified. (Wikipedia, HLB)
The second picture below is the Senate Dome in daytime. Features of interest are labeled for future reference. The third picture is a beautiful daytime picture of the clock in the Spasskaya Tower. It will be seen later at night, with its features less well defined.
Clock in Spasskaya Tower
2:27 am Attack
There are also two versions of this attack. Version 1 is described in this section. Version 2 is described in the section following the last attack.
Before Explosion Explosion After Explosion
2:27 am Attack – Version 1
The videos of the 2:27 attack all start just before the explosion. There is no long prelude showing the flight of the drone. The existing videos have a few frames prior to the explosion, the explosion, and a lengthy aftermath in which a small fire is seen at the base of the cap on the Senate dome.
The montage of photos below are the frames just before the explosion, the frame at the beginning of the explosion, and the fire after the explosion. The time of the pictures from the frame showing the start of the explosion is below the pictures. This time of this frame is set to zero.
Prior to the explosion, there are a series of small, white squares moving horizontally from left to right into the cap on top of the dome,. A picture of the last of these squares before the explosion is shown below with a gray arrow pointing next to it, and in the direction that these squares are moving. These squares appear to be photoshopped into the video.
The start of the explosion is located along the dome cap (the silvery disc on top of the dome in the leftmost picture) instead of at a point, i.e. a linear explosion. After the explosion there is a fire along this same area of the dome cap.
The best explanation of this attack is that an explosive was placed along the area of the cap and adjacent dome, and then set off with some type of remote device such as a cell phone. A drone would produce a roughly circular explosion centered about the point where the drone hit. The fire after the explosion is most likely unintentional.
2:43 am Attack
2:43 am Attack
The videos of the 2:43 attack start well before the explosion. We see the drone flying to the Senate Dome, exploding, and the aftermath of the explosion. The montage of photos to the right are the frames just before the explosion, the frame at the beginning of the explosion, and the frame after the explosion. There is also a small inset showing the maximum extent of the explosion. The time of the pictures from the frame showing the start of the explosion is below the pictures. This time of this frame is set to zero. The “TBU” means that this video is a Telegram video.
Prior to the explosion, we don’t see any drone in the video.
The start of the explosion is centered to the right of the flag pole, and halfway up it. It is a point explosion, as all the explosive is centered about a center point. After the explosion, we see the smoke dissipating, and the dome returning to its appearance as before the explosion. The flag is unaffected despite being engulfed in the fireball.
Flight Path of 2:43 am Attack
There is a long video segment showing the approach of the drone. Red circles were put around the drone so we don’t miss it. The clock tower can be seen with the time of the attack. A picture of the drone flight to the dome is to the right. The author drew lines to show the angle of the flight path, which is a shallow 10 degrees to the ground. The workers are also seen in the center-right foreground.
As the drone flies from right to left, it suddenly disappears in mid-flight. The next thing we see is the explosion.
The workers are seen going about their business. They never once stop and look up to see what the bright light and loud noise from the explosion is about.
The best explanation of this attack is that it was photoshopped. Drones don’t just disappear as they fly, and certainly not before they strike their target. The mid-air explosion comes out of nowhere. Flags that are engulfed in a fireball usually show some effect from the flames. And, people usually have some reaction to a bright explosion that comes out of nowhere. The best explanation of what we see in the video is that it didn’t occur in reality – only in the video editor’s studio.
LAST ATTACK
Last Attack
The last attack has the best video, and was widely disseminated in the media. It occurred sometime after 2:23 am, and likely after 2:43 am based upon the men climbing the dome walkway to inspect the damage from the fire of the first attack. (There is no view of this walkway in the video of the second attack, nor of men on it.)
The video shows the drone approaching the Senate Dome and then exploding. It was discussed in detail in the Update article to the attacks. In this Update, it was called the second attack, as the existence of the third attack was yet to be found. It is included in this Addendum because it is the third attack.
The montage of pictures to the right are the frames just before the explosion showing the white, rectangular drone by the flag pole, three frames at the beginning of the explosion, and the appearance of the dome after the explosion.
2:27 am Attack – Version 2
2:27 am Attack, Version 2
There is a second version of the 2:27 am attack. It starts with the explosion of the 2:43 attack, and then transitions into the 2:23 am attack. The montage of pictures to the right are the frames just before the explosion, three frames of the explosion, and the appearance of the dome after the explosion.
There is a very short prelude to the explosions. There is no approach of the drone from the left to the right as seen in the first version. The central position of the explosion is at the base of the flag pole and to its left. This position is closer to where the fire is located. In the 2:43 am attack, the central position of the explosion is in the middle of the flag pole, and to its right. The 2:43 am explosion starts out with an image that looks very close to that of that at 0.08 seconds below. However, the 2:43 am explosion doesn’t have the image of the at 0 seconds below, despite this image being within the time range that could have been caught with the CCTV camera.
At 1.08 seconds the explosion in this second version has transitioned to the image seen at the beginning of the first version. After the explosion, the fire seen in both versions is the same.
There are two possible explanations for these two videos. First, there is a fourth drone attack that produced a fire on the dome identical to that of the 2:27 am version 1 attack. This seems highly improbable.
The second is that the explosion shown in the 2:43 am attack was edited, or photoshopped, onto the front of the 2:27 am version 1 attack. This seems more likely, and is the only explanation of how an initial explosion that looks like the 2:43 am attack could transition into the identical explosion of the 2:27 am version 1 attack that makes sense to the author.
If the second explanation is true, then more photoshopping of the version 1 video becomes apparent. The start of the version 1 explosion is missing the first few frames of the version 2 explosion. Instead there is a short segment showing small squares moving from left to right. This segment was then photoshopped into the beginning of the version 1 video, “covering up” the first few frames of this explosion. And, this short segment was most likely created in the studio.
Based upon the above explanation of the 2:27 am version 2 attack, this video was not included as one of the drone attacks on the dome.
Exactly how and why this second version was created is unknown.
Pictures Summarizing the Three Drone “Attacks”.
(See figure for 2:27 ver 1 “attack” to see the detail in the top left photo.)
SUMMARY
There were three drone “attacks” on the Senate Dome in the Kremlin on May 3, 2023. The first occurred at 2:23 am, and the second at 2:43 am, based upon the clocks seen in the video. The last “attack” occurred sometime after 2:23 am, and likely after 2:43 am.
The conclusion of three “attacks” is contrary to Russia’s report of two drone attacks, which was reported by
all of the media. However, the video evidence for three “attacks” is incontrovertible.
The distinguishing features of these “attacks” are the drone approach, the explosion, and the aftermath of the explosion, as shown in the Table below and the assembly of pictures on the right. Each “attack” has a different approach and explosion – making three distinct and different “attacks.”
Each “attack” occurred in a different manner, as shown in the Table (based on my best explanation of what happened). The first “attack” contained all three elements – photoshopping, a staged explosion, and a real (and likely unintended) fire. The second “attack” was completely photoshopped. The third “attack” was staged using a real drone having a real explosion, but well away from the Senate Dome.
These findings mean that Ukraine did Not attack the Kremlin with drones as Russia alleged. Instead, Russia both staged and photoshopped these attacks. This is the only reasonable explanation of how there can be videos of three different attacks, yet only two are reported by Russia. They would know how many drones hit them if these were real attacks, but could lose count of the number of videos of faked attacks in the rush to get their propaganda to the media in 12 hours.