How is Craig Kimbrel still unsigned?

[FairWarning]

Do you want to pay a guy 18 M to pitch 60 innings ?

Seems to be any competent reliever should be able to get the job done just about as well.

If that were the case, he wouldn't ask for $18 mil, he would ask for $10 mil.

Funny thing I hear is the players are claiming collusion by the owners because no one will sign Kinbrel or Keuchel for 5 years. Do they think the Darvish deal was a great deal for the Cubs? Just maybe the agent misread the market or just doesn't care. They are just as much to blame as the owners for the market.

 

[SgtLanquel]

Analytics teams are realizing the high cost vs true value returns from "designated closers"

"Saves" are not quite as irrelevant a measurement as "Wins", but they are certainly an insuffucient measure for the overall value of a bullpen pitcher. There are upwards of a dozen more important measures and at this time and during the next several years the compensation structure for relief pitchers will be founded on those measures and not upon Saves

 

[FairWarning]

Analytics teams are realizing the high cost vs true value returns from "designated closers"

"Saves" are not quite as irrelevant a measurement as "Wins", but they are certainly an insuffucient measure for the overall value of a bullpen pitcher. There are upwards of a dozen more important measures and at this time and during the next several years the compensation structure for relief pitchers will be founded on those measures and not upon Saves

Since the Red Sox gave him a qualifying offer, they get a 1st round pick from the team that signs him before June. Now that teams realize how valuable those are, they are not giving them up. Kimbrel is prepared to sign a 1-year deal after June 1 or 15 (cant remember when the draft pick expires), then go back to FA and be unrestricted. The Cubs, Atl, and Mil really need him.

 

[Doug]

If that were the case, he wouldn't ask for $18 mil, he would ask for $10 mil. It's all pure ego, rapacity, greed (whatever word you prefer ) driven, turning down the 17.9 was stupid.

The game has changed a lot in the last 5 or so years. A player can still get a huge contract evidenced by guys like Trout, Harper, Machado, Stanton but relief pitchers are part time players, in particular a closer, most teams have about 8 relievers these days plus a couple of more than can be shuffled up and down as needed from AAA. It's just valued as highly as it once was to have that closer and Kimbrel is almost 31

Funny thing I hear is the players are claiming collusion by the owners because no one will sign Kinbrel or Keuchel for 5 years. Do they think the Darvish deal was a great deal for the Cubs? Just maybe the agent misread the market or just doesn't care. They are just as much to blame as the owners for the market.

Well he apparently turned down 17.9, granted only one year, so he's not going to be taking 10 even if for 4-6 years. He wants to be the highest paid reliever in history

 

[FairWarning]

Well he apparently turned down 17.9, granted only one year, so he's not going to be taking 10 even if for 4-6 years. He wants to be the highest paid reliever in history

I'm saying if only pitching 60 innings as a closer was easy (your take), he would be worth far less because more could do it and he'll be easier to replace. Now he'll take a year in June and bet on himself, i heard this the other day.

 

[pete7713]

only 3 closers making over 10 mil this year

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/closer/

 

[SgtLanquel]

I'm saying if only pitching 60 innings as a closer was easy (your take), he would be worth far less because more could do it and he'll be easier to replace. Now he'll take a year in June and bet on himself, i heard this the other day.

There are upwards of 40 to 50 arms in MLB who can deliver most of the raw stats Kimbrel brings but heretofore they have not been given the shot to fit into the role of "designated closer".

Most are aged well under 30 and cost between league minimum and maybe a couple million per year max.

The game's strongest analytical teams work for TB, NYY, HOU, BOS, CHC, LAD and PHI. And they are all moving away from designated closers, save for NY and - until Jansen's contract ends - LA.

The day of the "50 Save" man is gone forever. The day of the 40save man is drawing near. And for most teams, even a 30 save guy will be unusual.

Winning teams will continue to log 50+ Saves overall, but those will be distributed between two, three and frequently even four to five men each closing games based on matchups from the 7th inning on.

Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, AJ Hinch, Kevin Cash and Gabe Kapler are who you want to watch to better learn how pitching staffs will best be handled in coming seasons. And outside of NYY with their virtually unlimited payroll, no team will be paying a man who pitches under 90 innings more than $10m.....even that will be rare. Relief pitchers in general will be progressively dialed down salary-wise into the tiers of $3-5million tops.

 

[CHOPTALK]

There are upwards of 40 to 50 arms in MLB who can deliver most of the raw stats Kimbrel brings but heretofore they have not been given the shot to fit into the role of "designated closer".

Most are aged well under 30 and cost between league minimum and maybe a couple million per year max.

The game's strongest analytical teams work for TB, NYY, HOU, BOS, CHC, LAD and PHI. And they are all moving away from designated closers, save for NY and - until Jansen's contract ends - LA.

The day of the "50 Save" man is gone forever. The day of the 40save man is drawing near. And for most teams, even a 30 save guy will be unusual.

Winning teams will continue to log 50+ Saves overall, but those will be distributed between two, three and frequently even four to five men each closing games based on matchups from the 7th inning on.

Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, AJ Hinch, Kevin Cash and Gabe Kapler are who you want to watch to better learn how pitching staffs will best be handled in coming seasons. And outside of NYY with their virtually unlimited payroll, no team will be paying a man who pitches under 90 innings more than $10m.....even that will be rare. Relief pitchers in general will be progressively dialed down salary-wise into the tiers of $3-5million tops.

40 or 50 arms in MLB like kimbrel?

lol

 

[SgtLanquel]

40 or 50 arms in MLB like kimbrel?

lol

40 to 50 arms who can deliver 11+ ks per 9IP and WHIP well under 1.00, yes.

And median avg payroll for those arms is about $1m

70 IP for such arms = Approx 260-270 batters faced

So Kimbrel in his 70 IP faces only 250 batters.

Any team willing to pay $10m instead of $1m for that distinction is financially impudent.

And that is precisely why - per this thread title - no team is stepping up to offer Kimbrel the money he is asking

 

[SgtLanquel]

Kimbrel actually only works about 62 innings per season.

And while he does K avg about 14 per 9, smart analytics informs us that at the end of the day 14 per 9 vs 11 or 12 per 9 is at best a marginal difference. Bottom line is how many men get on base and how many score.

Kimbrel's avg WAR is right at 2.5 per season.

That's a solid contribution, but equates in 2019 payroll terms to a man worth a max of maybe $5m per season with a bit more for older guys.

But that's the kicker. As a 2.5 WAR guy hits age 30 and starts asking for 8 figure salary, most clubs have a half dozen arms in their system aged 23-26 w legit ability to deliver 2.5 WAR and they cost between ML minimum ($570k) to maybe $1m

From this season forward any player aged 30+ better be delivering at the absolute least 2.0 WAR or they will find themselves unemployable. And they better realize their payroll will be in the under $6-8m range because quite frankly the increased talent pool makes them otherwise expendable

 

[Doug]

The man is far from worthless just unrealistic about his potential value, no so called closer is automatically able to get those 3 lousy outs, 100% of the time, not even Mo! A team with a bullpen as deep as the NYY doesn't need a Chapman to close at like 17M, they have perhaps 3 others that extremely close in ability, no team needs a super high priced closer, that salary allotment can be better spent elsewhere.

 

[LennyBenny]

kimbrell gets the levian bell award for unusual stupidity.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I honestly believe WAR is calculated incorrectly for closers .
I have no way to prove it but just by watching 10000 baseball games I can tell you someone like kimbrel is worth much more then 2.5 more wins then an average closer

 

[LargeMarge]

Cubs need both of these guys

 

[SgtLanquel]

I honestly believe WAR is calculated incorrectly for closers .
I have no way to prove it but just by watching 10000 baseball games I can tell you someone like kimbrel is worth much more then 2.5 more wins then an average closer

A compelling testimonial.

But the geeks who calculate WAR have *watched* every baseball game of the past half century

Quite simply they have figured out that the only reason why a Kimbrel (or other high dollar closer) gets the role "this year" is because he had it the past five years.

But why should we (sayeth the RedSox, Rays, Cubs, Astros, Phillies etc) pay $10m+ for a guy (Kimbrel) who allows 17 runs per year when we can instead use one of 30+ young guys who allowed 21 runs in an equal number of innings and who costs between $580,000 -$1m

The Rays alone have three guys pitching at that level....100mph and dropping batters at same or better WHIP than Kimbrel has delivered during past three years. His primary distinction has been his 14k per 9.....but that's frankly mostly superfluous flash because at the end of it, his Runs Allowed is less than one per month better than all these young guys.

With exception of the Rays, every team I listed above - along with probably another 20 - can *afford* to spend $10m but they realize in the year 2019 that's a foolish use of resources better used to lock in players aged 22-26.

 

[SgtLanquel]

Cubs need both of these guys

Theo Epstein and Joe Maddon are two of smartest minds in MLB. Their not engaging with Kimbrel's demands should be all the evidence needed to demonstrate "Why Kimbrel Is Not Being Signed"

 

[pete7713]

A compelling testimonial.

But the geeks who calculate WAR have *watched* every baseball game of the past half century

Quite simply they have figured out that the only reason why a Kimbrel (or other high dollar closer) gets the role "this year" is because he had it the past five years.

But why should we (sayeth the RedSox, Rays, Cubs, Astros, Phillies etc) pay $10m+ for a guy (Kimbrel) who allows 17 runs per year when we can instead use one of 30+ young guys who allowed 21 runs in an equal number of innings and who costs between $580,000 -$1m

The Rays alone have three guys pitching at that level....100mph and dropping batters at same or better WHIP than Kimbrel has delivered during past three years. His primary distinction has been his 14k per 9.....but that's frankly mostly superfluous flash because at the end of it, his Runs Allowed is less than one per month better than all these young guys.

With exception of the Rays, every team I listed above - along with probably another 20 - can *afford* to spend $10m but they realize in the year 2019 that's a foolish use of resources better used to lock in players aged 22-26.

what 3 ray pitchers have a better whip than Kimbrel last 3 years . 1.094, 0.681, 0.995

 

[SgtLanquel]

what 3 ray pitchers have a better whip than Kimbrel last 3 years . 1.094, 0.681, 0.995

Admitting a bit of hyperbole....that noted, no Rays pitcher meets that because they're most all in their second season.

But for 2018; Alvarado 1.10, Castillo 0.95; Stanek 1.08 and Roe 1.01

Kimbrel had a wonderous 2017 for WHIP, but otherwise he's matched by several dozen RP arms throughout MLB

And yes, Rays likely a poor example because their overall pitching is best in MLB. Other teams not as stocked but most have at least a couple solid RP with 1.00 WHIP or under and avg payroll miles below $10m

 

[CHOPTALK]

So the only player in MLB history to get voted unanimously for the HOF played a position only slightly better then an average closer .

Again I can’t prove that an elite player like Kimbrel is worth more then 2.5 wins a season over average but the closer position is so much more then someone who gets outs regularly in the 9th inning .

There is nothing more demoralizing to a baseball team that has an unreliable closer .
Its always in the back of every players mind that no matter what we could still lose this game in the 9th.

None of these scenarios can be calculated with a formula .

Im very pro analytics.
But closer has to be the most difficult position in baseball to value with numbers

 

[PatsFan1283]

2.5 WAR is a lot though (an elite closers surplus value), it isn't slightly abover average...FanGraphs calculates a surplus win to be worth about 8m. That would put avg prime Kimbrel season value to be at around 20m. His 3 best seasons all were between 3.2 and 3.7. But you have to keep playing like the best in the league to be worth that and the position lacks longevity.

Only 35 pitchers had a higher WAR than that last year, is an average Kimbrel season worth better than 35 pitchers? Seems like that is a decently accurate measure of his value.