How does Trump get to 270 without Pennsylvania?

[Codebreaker]

In 2022 Fetterman won Pa by 250k votes, Biden had a 10% approval rating, we had 9% inflation, Gas was $4 a gallon, the Dow Jones was flat at 36,000, Fetterman had suffered a stroke and could barely speak. Yet he won Pa by +3.5 points.

Today, Harris is leading in Pa by 3+ points NYT/Siena, her approval is = Trump's, Inflation is 2.5%, Gas less then $3, the Dow Jones is at 43,000. Harris has a huge lead in VBM, democrats swept the statewide elections in 2022, including the Pa Supreme court.

Philly and it's suburbs have over half of the states population.

Is it the messenger or is Pennsylvania just a democratic state?

 

[Greenbacks]

444611	Republicans			-130
444612	Democrats			+100

 

[Acebb]

By winning NC, AZ, GA, and Michigan.

Thanks for playing, chimp.

 

[Acebb]

In Michigan, the Catholic vote is going to Trump by a 58 to 41 margin. Trump is winning 28% of the Muslim vote in MI, which is up from 9% in 2020.

Trump's advantages on immigration and inflation/cost of living have only gotten bigger, from +21 on immigration in September, to +25, as well as from +8 on inflation/cost of living to +11.

"A 48 percent approval rating for Trump retrospectively, notably, that is better than Trump ever did in our poll when he was actually president. So Trump perhaps benefiting from a little bit of a warming of attitudes towards his presidency after the fact and again, that’s 5 points better than Biden’s current approval rating in our poll."



PS: Trump is up 3 in PA and up 1 in Michigan.

 

[Codebreaker]

All good points, not sure about the polling but well stated. I would concede if she loses Pa she is likely to lose Mi and WI and the map looks like 2016 not 2022.

Now if she does win Pa. Then Trump has to win 3 states he lost in 2020, correct?

If she wins Pa then clearly MI and WI are in play for her. All she needs is MI and it's bye bye Trumpy is that correct?


Now how about Georgia:

Biden won Ga in 2020 and Ga also elected two Democratic senators in state wide elections. Trumps hand picked man Hershal Walker was destroyed by Warnock.

Trump was booked and got his famous mug shot in Fulton county Ga, he still faces a criminal trial in Ga in his election fraud case. Rudy G owes two black election workers in Ga $150,000,000.

Trump lost AZ in 2020, no reason to believe she can't win there.

NC is interesting Trump won it in 2020, but Charolotte and the Triangle have grown massively, Trump likely to win but it will be close.

 

[Acebb]

The problem for Harris is that she is not popular and is associated with an Administration with a lower approval rating than Trump.

She is going to lose Ohio by 10 points. There is no reason to think she will sweep MI, WI, and PA.

If Trump wins AZ, GA, and NC, he only needs 1 of those 3. She needs all 3 and is polling much lower than Biden.

It is possible she shocks the world and wins all of the states Biden won, but it seems very unlikely at this point.

 

[Acebb]

In a Michigan city, Harris has failed to catch fire with Black men

Taylor called his vote for Biden in 2020 a “mistake” and said he wished he had backed Trump. He does not know who will win his vote in November. Mostly, he feels despair.

“Nothing has come to fruition. Look at the schools, the playgrounds, the parks. Downtown is struggling. In our community, typically, we vote for Democrats. How has that panned out for us?” Taylor said.

 

[Codebreaker]

I am not sure Ohio with JD on the ballot is a great barometer for Harris in this election. She does not need to sweep all three. She just needs Pa and one other.

Biden won Az and Ga, NC is tight. Everything revolves around Pa.

 

[Acebb]

She does not need to sweep all three. She just needs Pa and one other.

If she loses AZ, NC, GA and 1 other of the 3, she loses.

Trump gets to 272 if he wins those 3 and WI.

She needs all 3. Trump needs 1.

It would be very interesting if Trump won MI, but lost WI and PA. That would be surprising.

 

[Greenbacks]

Code was on a Florida trip for a while.
Now he's obsessed with Pennsylvania.
LMAO
The skank is going down

 

[Acebb]

Kameltoe is down 13 in FL.

LOL

 

[Codebreaker]

Trump needs to worry more about traditional conservative whites, like millions of folks like George Will, Dick Cheney, Michael Luttig, The Bush's they are openly taking a pass on Trump in 2024.

If we have learned one thing about Trump in 12 years is. He will trash anyone he believes is against him. He will praise anyone he feels is with him. Sometimes that can evolve in one sentence.

Insulting and degrading Detroit at the Detroit Economic club does not help him in MI. He must have some feeling MI is against him or at least the largest voting block in the State.

 

[Acebb]

Harvard-Harris Poll:
Independents: 44/40 Trump
Males: 54/41 Trump
Females: 51/42 Harris -- a single-digit gap
College graduates: 49/49 tie
Asian voters: 66/20 Trump
Black voters: 72/22 Harris
Urban voters: 53/42 Harris
Suburban voters: 49/47 Trump

---If Trump wins the suburbs, the election is over at 11PM EST.

 

[Codebreaker]

Trump can win Florida by 100% and it won't help him one bit if Harris takes PA.

 

[Codebreaker]

If he wins Pa it's over in 1 hour. If he loses Pa he better have a plan to win 3 states he lost in 2020, and they will most likely not be Mi and WI.

 

[Codebreaker]

If Trump loses Pa and Ga he has zero path to 270. Even if he wins Florida by 1000%

 

[Seymour]

NC, GA and AZ are done deals

Trump does not need PA - he needs one of PA, MI or WI and he wins - her only path is to sweep all three

 

[Codebreaker]

Done deal like the red wave in 2022?

 

[Greenbacks]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845673700462592106

 

[Codebreaker]

God Bless old Bill, I though he died years ago.

Trump can end this by 11pm if he just wins Pa. Come on Donald you can do it

If he loses Pa he will need to win 3 states he lost in 2020. His odds of MI and WI shrink to 10%. They tend to vote as a block. 2016 and 2020 as examples.

If Harris sweeps PA, MI and WI, Trump could win every other 2020 state he carried by 100% and it won't matter 1 bit.

Then Jack Smith gets his turn at the Grandpa RICO.