dedication, homework, experience and studying what other sharp guys write. capping can be a full time job the web offers sats, webpages, newspapers then afteryou line a game you have to shop around after all that you find out if you can beat the man then you decide what you need to wager to make it worthwhile. Parlays with better odds can pay off better then straights if you can find 3 find enough STRONG plays to work with which seems to get tougher do do the last few years.
Learn the math!
"Never buy points.
If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like."
Break even on straight bets of -110 is 52.38%(11/21), not 55%. The above post gets the vig ( 4.55% ) confused with the break-even. So buying a hook for 10 cent ups the break-even to 54.55%(12/22), far from 60%.
For the most part, buying points in the NFL is a bad move, but there are some "sweet spot" lines around key numbers where it isn't so dumb. In general it is but not 100%.
GL2ALL
"Never buy points.
If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like."
Break even on straight bets of -110 is 52.38%(11/21), not 55%. The above post gets the vig ( 4.55% ) confused with the break-even. So buying a hook for 10 cent ups the break-even to 54.55%(12/22), far from 60%.
For the most part, buying points in the NFL is a bad move, but there are some "sweet spot" lines around key numbers where it isn't so dumb. In general it is but not 100%.
GL2ALL
Whats sharp about betting vs. teams with injuries?
If anything, bettors should probably bet the teams with a known injury, not bet vs.
Especially NBA.
NFL if buying onto or off key # and juice isnt too bad, it seems like the thing to do.
I dont believe NEVER buying points is solid advice.
If anything, bettors should probably bet the teams with a known injury, not bet vs.
Especially NBA.
NFL if buying onto or off key # and juice isnt too bad, it seems like the thing to do.
I dont believe NEVER buying points is solid advice.
Excellent advice and still as true today as when it was first written and will be in the future.
There is some terrible advice there.
Never Buy Points
Rubbish. Buying points for key numbers can be +ev.
Play injuries
Silly thing to generalize. The public can overcompensate.
Bet early and don't be greedy
I've got a better suggestion: Study line movement. Early numbers aren't always the best.
Follow your streak
This is ridiculous. Bet more when you are 'hot' and bet less when you are not??
There is some terrible advice there.
Never Buy Points
Rubbish. Buying points for key numbers can be +ev.
Play injuries
Silly thing to generalize. The public can overcompensate.
Bet early and don't be greedy
I've got a better suggestion: Study line movement. Early numbers aren't always the best.
Follow your streak
This is ridiculous. Bet more when you are 'hot' and bet less when you are not??
Will be honest with you..........very hard to become an EXTREME sharpie without living on the streets of Vegas.
Don't get me wrong, there are MANY sharps that have never even set foot in the state of Nevada, but living in Vegas is a HUGE advantage and education for the all-around gambler.
Don't get me wrong, there are MANY sharps that have never even set foot in the state of Nevada, but living in Vegas is a HUGE advantage and education for the all-around gambler.
"Follow your streak"
Not good advice...anyone who is "sharp" will know that when losing streaks come, it only creates more value...
"Don't chase moves.
If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run."
another bad piece of advice, if you can get a scalp or middle later, bet the freaking line move...everyone knows that...
Not good advice...anyone who is "sharp" will know that when losing streaks come, it only creates more value...
"Don't chase moves.
If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run."
another bad piece of advice, if you can get a scalp or middle later, bet the freaking line move...everyone knows that...
uppy: :money8:Here's my little tidbit:
Don't bet unders in football based solely on impending bad weather.
For every 10 times everyone gets all riled up about "high winds" or "thunderstorms," the weather actually affects the score maybe once. The truth is, bad weather creates as many scoring opportunities as it prevents, i.e. turnovers, muffed punts, defenders slipping, etc.
Cappers feel "sharp" when they catch an early weather report, but 9 times out of 10 it makes no difference IMHO. As is typical with weather forecasting, often the bad weather never even comes!
Don't bet unders in football based solely on impending bad weather.
For every 10 times everyone gets all riled up about "high winds" or "thunderstorms," the weather actually affects the score maybe once. The truth is, bad weather creates as many scoring opportunities as it prevents, i.e. turnovers, muffed punts, defenders slipping, etc.
Cappers feel "sharp" when they catch an early weather report, but 9 times out of 10 it makes no difference IMHO. As is typical with weather forecasting, often the bad weather never even comes!
This is good. I thought there might be some dissent but the overall tone of the post is correct.
All please remeber some of these old post were directed at the true rec crowd that exist here. Some of the counter points while good is not something a true square vs a sharpare should really consider.
I am big on not buying points for the true square for the exact reasons SW said plus it teaches bad habits and breeds overconfidence in the square bettor.
One of the problems in the fourms today is that most forget that there is a crowd right below us that aren't up to speed with the moves or lingo of the culture and should stay with the basics at all times.
All please remeber some of these old post were directed at the true rec crowd that exist here. Some of the counter points while good is not something a true square vs a sharpare should really consider.
I am big on not buying points for the true square for the exact reasons SW said plus it teaches bad habits and breeds overconfidence in the square bettor.
One of the problems in the fourms today is that most forget that there is a crowd right below us that aren't up to speed with the moves or lingo of the culture and should stay with the basics at all times.
