So Carolina +1.5
I think this line is a joke with So Car playing at home. This is a pretty good team who can excel against the style of play the Gators like to go with. Devan Downey has had 2 of his biggest games of the year against Clemson(37pts), and Baylor (23pts), both play the uptempo offense that Florida will play at. The Gamecocks has 4 scorers that average double figures so the scoring punch will be there. In fact Zam Fredrick (16.3ppg) the 2nd leading scorer behind Downey has averaged 21ppg in league play. Downey and Fredrick do a good job getting the scoring done, and the 2 other double digit scorers could be the difference in the game.6'7 Dominque Archie, and 6'7 Mike Holmes average 7.3 and 8.1 rebs/g respectively. They should be able to control the glass against a thin Florida team that has struggled to rebound the ball at times this season. So Car has enough size and athleticism with those 2 to really give the Gators problems. Also Florida really hasn't shown they can go on the road and win consistently. They lost earlier in the season to Florida St, a team that struggles to score, and barely escpaed with a win againat Auburn in their last road game, and that was a game they really should have lost if it wasn't for Auburn imploding from the foul line. So Carolina is 10-1 at home with their only loss coming to a very good Clemson team. I think they protect their home court tonight and get an important league win.
I think this line is a joke with So Car playing at home. This is a pretty good team who can excel against the style of play the Gators like to go with. Devan Downey has had 2 of his biggest games of the year against Clemson(37pts), and Baylor (23pts), both play the uptempo offense that Florida will play at. The Gamecocks has 4 scorers that average double figures so the scoring punch will be there. In fact Zam Fredrick (16.3ppg) the 2nd leading scorer behind Downey has averaged 21ppg in league play. Downey and Fredrick do a good job getting the scoring done, and the 2 other double digit scorers could be the difference in the game.6'7 Dominque Archie, and 6'7 Mike Holmes average 7.3 and 8.1 rebs/g respectively. They should be able to control the glass against a thin Florida team that has struggled to rebound the ball at times this season. So Car has enough size and athleticism with those 2 to really give the Gators problems. Also Florida really hasn't shown they can go on the road and win consistently. They lost earlier in the season to Florida St, a team that struggles to score, and barely escpaed with a win againat Auburn in their last road game, and that was a game they really should have lost if it wasn't for Auburn imploding from the foul line. So Carolina is 10-1 at home with their only loss coming to a very good Clemson team. I think they protect their home court tonight and get an important league win.
Bradley +6.5
I follow the MVC pretty closely and have seen No Iowa play a few times this season and I do not think they are as good as they have been playing, and as good as the number says they are. Bradley matches up very well against the Panthers, maybe the best of any other team in the conference. Bradley has the quickness at the guard position to control the young No Iowa guards, and cover the 3 point line, but they also have the size to contend with Koch down low. No Iowa has been red hot from 3 point range so it will be important for the Braves to guard the line. With their quickness on the perimeter they should be able to do just that. Here is what they have held opponents to in MVC play;
So Ill 27.3%
Indiana St 26.15
Creighton 47%
Illinois St 23%
Missouri St 30%
Wichita St 31%
In all games with the exception being Creighton they have done a great job guarding the line. I expect them to have no problem doing so tonight. With the Bradley guards locking down the perimeter it will be up to 7 foot center David Collins and 6'9 240 Sam Singh to control the paint. Collins and Singh are good role players. They aren't counted on to score. They just need to clog up the paint, grab some rebounds, block some shots, and play good post defense, and that is exactly what they have done this year. It is no fluke that as soon as the Bradley defense turned around this season it is when the Braves started to rattle off wins. With quick guards locking down the perimter, and the 2 big bodies clogging up the paint Bradley has turned into one of the best defensive teams in the valley. For good measure they even lead the valley in block with almost 5 a game so Koch could have a rough night. To go along with leading the league in blocks they also are tops in the valley in rebounding. they have out rebounded each valley opponent this season excpet Missouri St in a game they still won. Offensively Theron Wilson leads the Braves in scoring at 14.3ppg. He is coming off arguably his best game of the season with a 22pt 16rb effort. Bradley has quick guards who can get to the basket and shoot the ball. They are very effective driving the ball and kicking for 3. I think with their speed they should be able to get to the basket on a consistent basis tonight. Last year Bradley went into N Iowa in the same role as a 7 point dog, and came out with a 2 point victory. I am expecting the same thing to happen this year.
I follow the MVC pretty closely and have seen No Iowa play a few times this season and I do not think they are as good as they have been playing, and as good as the number says they are. Bradley matches up very well against the Panthers, maybe the best of any other team in the conference. Bradley has the quickness at the guard position to control the young No Iowa guards, and cover the 3 point line, but they also have the size to contend with Koch down low. No Iowa has been red hot from 3 point range so it will be important for the Braves to guard the line. With their quickness on the perimeter they should be able to do just that. Here is what they have held opponents to in MVC play;
So Ill 27.3%
Indiana St 26.15
Creighton 47%
Illinois St 23%
Missouri St 30%
Wichita St 31%
In all games with the exception being Creighton they have done a great job guarding the line. I expect them to have no problem doing so tonight. With the Bradley guards locking down the perimeter it will be up to 7 foot center David Collins and 6'9 240 Sam Singh to control the paint. Collins and Singh are good role players. They aren't counted on to score. They just need to clog up the paint, grab some rebounds, block some shots, and play good post defense, and that is exactly what they have done this year. It is no fluke that as soon as the Bradley defense turned around this season it is when the Braves started to rattle off wins. With quick guards locking down the perimter, and the 2 big bodies clogging up the paint Bradley has turned into one of the best defensive teams in the valley. For good measure they even lead the valley in block with almost 5 a game so Koch could have a rough night. To go along with leading the league in blocks they also are tops in the valley in rebounding. they have out rebounded each valley opponent this season excpet Missouri St in a game they still won. Offensively Theron Wilson leads the Braves in scoring at 14.3ppg. He is coming off arguably his best game of the season with a 22pt 16rb effort. Bradley has quick guards who can get to the basket and shoot the ball. They are very effective driving the ball and kicking for 3. I think with their speed they should be able to get to the basket on a consistent basis tonight. Last year Bradley went into N Iowa in the same role as a 7 point dog, and came out with a 2 point victory. I am expecting the same thing to happen this year.
Baylor +4
Statistically on offense this game looks like a mismatch. Baylor shoots the ball at a 49.2% clip compared to Kansas St at 44.5%. Free throws Baylor 68.6%, K ST 63.7%, and 3 point % Baylor 38.4% K St 34.9%. However the most important stat in this game is the 14.4 turnovers/game that Kansas St averages. Their guard plays has been poor lately, with their 25 turnovers last time out against Nebraska reflecting so. That's not a good thing coming into a game against a Baylor team that loves to pressure the ball and has exceptionally quick guards that allow them to do so. Kansas St comes into this game with 3 straight losses, their last a 22 point beating by lowly Nebraska. I have seen both teams play several times this year, and Baylor by far was the more impressive team. My main concern would be Baylors ability to rebound, but for being a small team they have fared well in the games i have seen. 6'9 Kevin Rogers is an athletic forward who averages 7.8rpg, and he is helped by 6'7 freshman Quincy Acy who is also an athletic forward that Scott Drew recently inserted into the starting lineup. Overall Baylor has elite athletes all over the floor that should give a turnover prone Kansas St all sorts of trouble. Offensively they are better in all aspects of the game, and are just about the same on defense. Home court counts for a lot in conference play, but Baylor has experienced guards like Curtis Jerrels, Lacedarius Dunn, Henry Dugat, and Tweety Carter who have been through the Big 12 battles and know how to prepare themselves for road games. I think Baylor gets the straight up win tonight
Statistically on offense this game looks like a mismatch. Baylor shoots the ball at a 49.2% clip compared to Kansas St at 44.5%. Free throws Baylor 68.6%, K ST 63.7%, and 3 point % Baylor 38.4% K St 34.9%. However the most important stat in this game is the 14.4 turnovers/game that Kansas St averages. Their guard plays has been poor lately, with their 25 turnovers last time out against Nebraska reflecting so. That's not a good thing coming into a game against a Baylor team that loves to pressure the ball and has exceptionally quick guards that allow them to do so. Kansas St comes into this game with 3 straight losses, their last a 22 point beating by lowly Nebraska. I have seen both teams play several times this year, and Baylor by far was the more impressive team. My main concern would be Baylors ability to rebound, but for being a small team they have fared well in the games i have seen. 6'9 Kevin Rogers is an athletic forward who averages 7.8rpg, and he is helped by 6'7 freshman Quincy Acy who is also an athletic forward that Scott Drew recently inserted into the starting lineup. Overall Baylor has elite athletes all over the floor that should give a turnover prone Kansas St all sorts of trouble. Offensively they are better in all aspects of the game, and are just about the same on defense. Home court counts for a lot in conference play, but Baylor has experienced guards like Curtis Jerrels, Lacedarius Dunn, Henry Dugat, and Tweety Carter who have been through the Big 12 battles and know how to prepare themselves for road games. I think Baylor gets the straight up win tonight
in reply to the rutgers/lou convo, rutgers can hang inside with their two bigs(Ndiaye and Echenique). i, for some reason, have watched alot of their games this year. when they stick to their gameplan, which they seem to do only in the first half, they can play with anybody. played equal with unc, pitt and uconn inside and really controlled syracuse underneath. they did this only in the first halves of these games though, then they seem to get down 6 or 8 and panic and rosario starts firing and the game gets out of hand in the 2nd half all the time. i think Fred Hill gets these guys to stick to their game for 40 minutes tonight and is ripe for a big upset at the RAC
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I like the write-up HD, and you are definitely making me second guess my original play on K-St. However, I feel like K-St. really needs this win - they are 0-3 in conference play and just got embarrassed (I look at that as a positive going forward to the next game). This game will come down to Baylor's points off turnovers versus K-St's second chance points. There will be a ton of both, so it should be a good matchup. By the way, did you happen to see the Baylor/A&M game. Baylor was clearly overmatched on the boards, and K-St. is a better rebounding team. Anyhow, good luck to you and keep up the good work. You have been getting totally hosed lately, and you deserve a few close ones in the other direction (just hopefuly not this one....haha).
was never a big believer in "they really need a win" or "do you think they will really lose 4 in a row". There is a reason they have lost 3 in a row in conference. They are not that good of a basketball team. Very up one game and even more down the next. I won't play it because this team and Baylor both fall in my "is this team good, bad, mediocre, shit I dont know" catergory. Two of the harder teams to cap in the nation as you never know what teams are going to show up. Other teams you can throw in that mix
UK, TENN, GONZAGA, ND, MICH ST
Hey serios...where ya' been...you've been makin' me moneyarty:
just floppin around...don't feel like digging my record up and trying to impress people past few days. FWIW though
Wisconsin -2.5
Clemson +14 or better
So Carolina
^you can get 3 of those I believe in HDs picks though...I could be wrong. This is all I like tonight though
