Homedawg's Wednesday Plays 136-119 (53.33%) +4.7

[homedawg]

Homedawg,
I know your a huge cuse fan so let me run my little theory by you. I'm thinking that if they can win tonight at Gtown and then play ND on Saturday at home the line will hit anywhere from 6-8 and the Irish can possibly steal one. If I remember off the top of my head the Irish always play Cuse tough and they struggle with those teams that can knock down shots. So i'm hoping Cuse wins today and then the Irish beat them on Saturday. What are your thoughts? I know you have to write up all those games for today so if you can answer later on it would be appreciated.

i actually have syracuse winning the next 2 games before losing possibly twice next week. i am down on georgetown, and think they are a tad over rated. i don't think they will be able to knock down the 3 consistently enough to beat the zone. the game will be won if syracuse can rebound out of the zone. the hoyas aren't particulary a strong rebounding team so i think syracuse can do it. the cuse have seemed to have gtown's number as of late too. flynn always plays good in big games, and i don't think they can stop arinze down low. last year they had hibbert. arinze struggles against bigger players, and monroe isn't developed as much on the defensive end as he is on the offensive. rautins has been shooting the shit out of the ball which has spread the floor and let arinze do his thing. also it seems whenever they need a basket johnny takes his man to the basket and either scores or gets fouled. i think the zone is going to be the factor tonight.
as for saturday nd has been giving syracuse trouble cause they can shoot us out of the zone. however that usually happens at south bend, not syracuse. this should be a good game, but i don't think nd plays enough defense to slow down syracuse. the cuse usually has a field day against weak defensive teams, and that is what nd is. i can see them being 8 or 9 point favorites and winning by double digits. the best time to play them may be next week when i think they go down

 

[TheGuarantee]

Was planning to unload on Ole Miss in this spot until Warren went down...now I lean Arky as well but not sure I can pull the trigger on the road...going to hope they win here and probably will be looking to make a big play on Florida in their next game.

 

[SC2009]

South Carolina at +3.5 seems good too... I know you hate road dogs but LSU is not that good and I have a feeling SC will go in there and beat them like they beat Auburn at home last Saturday... close early, pull away at the end.

 

[Drunkn247]

i actually have syracuse winning the next 2 games before losing possibly twice next week. i am down on georgetown, and think they are a tad over rated. i don't think they will be able to knock down the 3 consistently enough to beat the zone. the game will be won if syracuse can rebound out of the zone. the hoyas aren't particulary a strong rebounding team so i think syracuse can do it. the cuse have seemed to have gtown's number as of late too. flynn always plays good in big games, and i don't think they can stop arinze down low. last year they had hibbert. arinze struggles against bigger players, and monroe isn't developed as much on the defensive end as he is on the offensive. rautins has been shooting the shit out of the ball which has spread the floor and let arinze do his thing. also it seems whenever they need a basket johnny takes his man to the basket and either scores or gets fouled. i think the zone is going to be the factor tonight.
as for saturday nd has been giving syracuse trouble cause they can shoot us out of the zone. however that usually happens at south bend, not syracuse. this should be a good game, but i don't think nd plays enough defense to slow down syracuse. the cuse usually has a field day against weak defensive teams, and that is what nd is. i can see them being 8 or 9 point favorites and winning by double digits. the best time to play them may be next week when i think they go down

They have won at Nd the last few times and lost at home to them or on a neutral ct to them. The beat them in the Carrier by 3 but besides that over the last 5 years it looks like the road team has done better in the series.
2003-2004 ND 84-72 in Carrier
Cuse 81-70 in ND
2004-2005 Cuse 60-57 in Carrier
Cuse 70-61 in ND
2005-2006 Cuse 88-82 in ND
2006-2007 ND 103-91 In Carrier
ND 89-83 in MSG
2007-2008 ND 94-87 in ND

So Cuse has 3 out of the 4 wins on the road and ND has 2 wins at Carrier and 1 on a neutral.

 

[homedawg]

Georgia Tech +11.5

I think this is a good match up for GT. They can take advantage of one of Dukes only weaknesses. GT has some size in the front court, and use that size to rebound the ball very well. With the 6'8 Gani Lawal 14.1/10, 6'10 Andre Aminu 13.5/9.4, and 6'8 Zach Peacock 10.6/5.9 they have the size Duke doesn't. Duke hasn't shot the ball particulary well from 3 (only 33.3% on season) so they rely on getting their points by slashing to the basket. The size GT has up front could give the Blue Devils some problems doing so. GT also will be able to limit Duke to just 1 shot per possession, which is huge. GT plays tough defense at home limiting opponents to 39.4% from the field, and 30.6% from the 3 point line. The main concern is the ability to GT guards to protect the ball against Duke's pressure defense. GT turns it over at a high rate, but so does Duke. While GT turns it over 16.5 times a game, Duke almost matches them turning it over 14.9/g. Since GT uses a full court pressure defense Duke's high turnover rate could fall right into GT's scheme. Last time Duke played at GT they lost by 11. You know Duke is going to get GT's best shot. With that you are going to get a much more concentrated effort, something that could help limit turnovers. I think GT's ability to rebound (conference leader) will keep them in the game throughout. Duke can't match their size and could struggle getting points in the paint. With the paint cut off duke has not shown the capability to beat you from the outside all year. There are a few factors working for the yellow jackets giving them the ability to keep it close.

 

[ELMO75]

g/l Homed!!! I'm w/ you.

How many units are you planning on playin Auburn for?

 

[homedawg]

Auburn + ?

Another game where I favor the matchup. Auburn has the personnel where they can take advantage of Florida in the paint. Fla does not have a physical front line. Alex Tyus 6'8 220, Dan Werner 6'8 230, and Chandler Parsons 6'9 213 are less than intimidating. Especially when you are putting them up against 6'7 235lb Korvotney Barber. Barber is an all league talent, who has really picked it up on the glass as of late. Over the past 6 games he is averaging almost 13 rebounds a game. This could be a problem for Fla, especially since they were out rebounded by 24 in their last game against Miss. It's not like ole miss wins by rebounding either. In fact they are 2nd to last in the league in rebounding, just ahead of fla, who is dead last. just look at their rebound margin against teams who are strong on the glass
syracuse -8
nc st -6
florida st -6
washington -6

they lost 2 of those games, and the other 2 were a little closer than they should have been. truth is fla really hasn't played anyone this year. they have a good record, but not many good wins. they have a lot of holes they need to fill. 1 being rebounding, and another being guard quickness. ole miss guards got past the fla back court time and time again, which is part of the rebounding problems. against auburn is won't get any easier. dwayne reed is a guard who has been playing very well his last 3 games, scoring 20,20, and 21 consecutively. if florida isn't able to contain him, and improve on the glass they will be in trouble (obviously i don't think they will do good with this). auburn does has good defensive numbers. at home they hold opponents to 36.6% from the field, and 33.9% from 3, while they shoot 47.3% from the field and 35.2% from 3. i think fla will get a lot of love, but unjustifiably. auburn will take advantage of the gators in the paint and get the upset.

 

[homedawg]

g/l Homed!!! I'm w/ you.

How many units are you planning on playin Auburn for?

2 or 3 depending on what number i can get.


hopefully we can get some breaks to go our way for once.

gl

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I would be all over Wake Forest like Sunday, but this is a typical letdown game for them.

Locked in Syracuse +6.5 and some on the ML. I also like Michigan St. and Michigan.

 

[homedawg]

ya big time let down and to make it worse road favorite. these are going against all the things that i look to back. i think they are just so much more talented they will be able to overcome this. they don't rely all that much on the 3 ball which will help. if they keep driving the ball to the hoop, and rebound the ball they should be fine.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I would wait to see how the first half plays and make a 2nd half play on Wake if they are still in it, but thats me.

BC doesn't have an inside force so Wake should cover, but this is a huge letdown spot.

 

[homedawg]

some information

727 Duke
728 Georgia Tech

5639

65%
35%

95%
5%

78%
22%

3%
97%

-10.5-105
+10.5-105

 

[TheGuarantee]

Not sure I get what those numbers are other than obviously pub on Duke, line dropping...your writeup pretty much keeping me off Duke, nice points on the matchup almost forgot how tough Ga Tech can be at home too and was thinking of laying the large number on the road...good luck on the play

 

[Moneyline_Monster]

Syracuse ALL DAY today HD

 

[homedawg]

Michigan +7.5

I think the Michigan 1-3-1 zone will continue to give Illinois fits. In last weeks 10 point victory over Illinois they held the Illini to 6-19 from 3 (31.6%). Illinois also only got to the line 2 times. That shows me a couple things. 1. Illinois wasn't aggressive in attacking the zone. There is no way a team should only go to the line 2 times, but that is what the 1-3-1 can do to you. It is not a defense you see every night and being able to make adjustments, especially in game, can be difficult. Take away Meacham and Illinois is not a good shooting team to begin with. Without a lot of repitions it is a hard zone to attack. You need a playmaker to drive to the basket, something illinois doesn't have. Beilein has been stressing defense as of late and it looks like Michigan has responded on that end. In their last game against a good 3 point shooting Iowa team they held them to 6 three pointers for the game.
As for Michigan they shot 49% in the last meeting. They were also +1 on the glass. They have plenty of shooters who can stretch the defense out, and execute Beilien's motion, back cut, offense. With the addition of Lucas-Perry Michigan now has 3 legit scoring options. He has been shooting the 3 at a 44.7% clip and gives them just another 3 point option. Beilien's offense relies heavily on the 3 ball, and you can see how much more effective his offense is this season now that he has his own personnel in their. the addition of lucas-perry makes michigan a legit contender for the big 10 title. it would have been hard with only 2 scorers so now with lucas perry you get a player that can drive the ball, and just not dependent on the 3 ball. this isn't going to be a high scoring game so i will gladly take the 7.5

 

[Addict101]

HD, what do you think about the under in GT/Duke? Like you said in your GT breakdown, Duke is struggling to hit from 3 consistently this season, so I wouldn't think Duke goes nuts. GT is athletic enough to play Duke man to man. GT isn't much of an offensive powerhouse to start with either. You have any kind of lean towards the under? Thanks.

 

[homedawg]

HD, what do you think about the under in GT/Duke? Like you said in your GT breakdown, Duke is struggling to hit from 3 consistently this season, so I wouldn't think Duke goes nuts. GT is athletic enough to play Duke man to man. GT isn't much of an offensive powerhouse to start with either. You have any kind of lean towards the under? Thanks.

I was actually looking at the over and the more and more i looked the more i liked the under. the last 4 games have all been under games. i am nervous about the pace though. both teams like to play uptempo and it will lead to a bunch of easy baskets. both these teams would like to play at a faster tempo, just sometimes they don't score well enough to do so. both teams also have pretty good defensive numbers so i think it would be wise just to stay off altoether

GL

 

[seriousaddiction]

I know its technically a "letdown" game for Wake , but how emotional of a win was the UNC game?? They should have won that game IMO...top 5 team at home...whats not to like about that. This is just another game. They will wipe the floor with BC

 

[GimmeDattt]

check my thread I got some questions.

 

[homedawg]

3 Units

Auburn +3 -110

reasoning is some where earlier in this thread