Homedawg's Thursday Plays

[homedawg]

im taking USC on the money line not point spread. Thoughts?

I think playing on a neutral court USC wins this game 8 out of 10 times. So, while I think there is a chance Seton Hall wins this, USC should be good more times than not.

BOL

 

[homedawg]

Thanks, homedawg, for your thorough analysis. I appears you really know your NCAA hoops! :aktion033

As I type this, the current lines for the 2 plays I will tail you on, UC Davis and Michigan are as follows at The Greek:

<table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#363636"><td width="100%"><small>8:00 pm </small></td></tr></tbody></table><table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="35">707</td><td width="180">UC Davis</td><td align="center" width="85">
</td><td align="center" width="85">
</td><td align="right" width="45">+550</td><td width="85">
</td><td width="85">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center" width="35">708</td><td width="180">Arkansas</td><td align="center" width="85">-11</td><td align="center" width="85">146½</td><td align="right" width="45">-750</td></tr></tbody></table>


<table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#363636"><td width="100%"><small>9:20 pm (ESPN2) 2K Hoops Classic - Semifinal Round @ Madison Square Garden - New York, NY </small></td></tr></tbody></table><table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="35">727</td><td width="180">Michigan</td><td align="center" width="85">
</td><td align="center" width="85">
</td><td align="right" width="45">+450</td><td width="85">
</td><td width="85">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center" width="35">728</td><td width="180">UCLA</td><td align="center" width="85">-9½</td><td align="center" width="85">127</td><td align="right" width="45">-600</td></tr></tbody></table>


Are these still plays for me? Also, would you recommend that I buy a 1/2 point to get Michigan +10?

Thanks in advance.

Good luck! :toast:

I am not a proponent of buying points therefore that answer will be no. The lines have dropped significantly, which in turn would automatically turn me off to the game, since I feel I would have lost too much value. However, I would still play UC Davis +11, but would have to put a lot more thought in on Michigan. I would hold off and see where the line goes from here. 9.5 is a tough number.

BOL

 

[Basket Case]

Thanks Again

I am not a proponent of buying points therefore that answer will be no. The lines have dropped significantly, which in turn would automatically turn me off to the game, since I feel I would have lost too much value. However, I would still play UC Davis +11, but would have to put a lot more thought in on Michigan. I would hold off and see where the line goes from here. 9.5 is a tough number.

BOL

Thanks for your speedy reply back.

I'll pass on the Michigan play until later today to hopefully get better value, but I'll lock in on UC Davis +11.

Thanks for you help, and lets go <TABLE class=teamheader cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle width=160> </TD><TD width=815>UC Davis Aggies





</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[homedawg]

There is going to be a play on the S. Illinois/Duke over. It has been hanging at 137 ish all day. I will play 137 for 1 unit, but going to monitor and see what this does. I will move quick if it starts to move up for 1 unit at 137, but add a unit if it were to fall below 135

 

[homedawg]

2 Units

Duke/So. Ill Over 135 -110

 

[beerformyhorses]

thanks and good luck.

 

[ChicoandtheMan]

Gett'em dog!

 

[ymmit2nd]

We are getting killed with the duke over I have never seen duke don't score like this

 

[homedawg]

We are getting killed with the duke over I have never seen duke don't score like this

left wayyyy to many points on the floor the first half. 2nd half over is the play and i have a feeling they give the over a run. sick how many points they left out there

 

[jordan17]

damn my mich is now +8.5

got +10, +9, and +8.5

:smoking:

 

[homedawg]

damn my mich is now +8.5

got +10, +9, and +8.5

:smoking:

ya i got it last night at the opener. would have a 4 pt middle if i wanted to play UCLA, but that would just be getting off a good bet. GL tonight

 

[homedawg]

so.ill/duke game frustrating hell out of me. so many easy easy points left out on the floor. hate taking overs.

 

[jordan17]

ya i got it last night at the opener. would have a 4 pt middle if i wanted to play UCLA, but that would just be getting off a good bet. GL tonight

thats what i want to hear!

i so thought it would go to -15 last nite too...:wink:

 

[homedawg]

We are getting killed with the duke over I have never seen duke don't score like this

Never in doubt haha

 

[cut-paste-hero]

2 Units

Duke/So. Ill Over 135 -110

:money8:

 

[homedawg]

Wolves have a shot at winning this

 

[cut-paste-hero]

UC Davis

Liked what I saw from UC Davis in their 3 game tournament in Aimes. They left with a 1-2 record, but led most of the game vs host Iowa St, and the same against Wisconsin Milw. UC Davis is expected to be much improved this season, and from the looks of it I would say this is accurate. What encouraged me most from those 3 games was their ability to rebound the basketball. Since they run a 4 out 1 in lineup it is extremely important that the guards have the ability to rebound, which they did. They out rebounded Iowa St, and their all league big man Craig Brackins 41-36, Wisc Milw 37-31, and Loyola Marymount 28-22. Even though they play a 4 guard lineup, and really only have 2 big guys that play a significant role, they have a very tall lineup. Mark Payne (6'8), Joe Harden (6'8), give UC Davis good length that should help them be consistent on the glass. In each game they also showed the ability to play better defense, holding their opponents to 44% shooting. That is a big improvement compared to last years numbers. Their all league guard Mark Payne didn't even play that well averaging only 6.3ppg in the 3 game tournament. You can only expect more out of him tonight against a young Arkansas team. However if Notre Dame transfer Joe Harden can continue to play the way he has you can expect even more from Davis. Harden had 2 double doubles in Aimes, and just missed out in a 3rd, while averaging 15.3ppg.
As for Arkansas I expect them to be really down this season, at least early on. I will be looking to fade them whenever possible until they show me they have the ability to compete at a high level. Their first game against SE Louisiana confirmed my belief that the Razorbacks are in for a long season by winning in overtime 91-88. They are very inexperienced returning only 1 starter, Stefan Welsh, and he even split time. Pelphrey brought in a strong recruiting class, but it will take time to adjust playing on the D1 level. Going against experienced teams, who have some talent, such as the Aggies will be a trouble spot early on. After the news that all league performer Patrick Beverley would not be back I felt it took the air out of the program for the upcoming season. Not much is expected from them, and when not a lot is expected from an inexperienced team they usually don't perform as if they were supposed to win.
UC Davis has shown they have improved, and that they are going to compete this season. The same can not be said for Arkansas. I expect the Aggies to stay close throughout.

:cripwalk:

 

[homedawg]

my 2 favorite thing amubobbers. thanks C&PHERO

 

[cut-paste-hero]

Wolves have a shot at winning this

Manny being Manny :missingte

1st lead

33-31

 

[cut-paste-hero]

my 2 favorite thing amubobbers. thanks C&PHERO

Are you kidding?

Thanking me?

Thank you man!!