Arkansas -4.5
Great situations for the Backs right here. They come in rested and ready to go, not having played in a week. They have lost 3 straight games, but 2 of those were on the road, and the first was a let down game coming after their upset win over Texas. Arkansas is 10-1 in Fayetville on the season, and get to play an Auburn team that has struggled on the road this season with a 1-5 mark. In SEC play Auburn has lost on the road to S. Carolina by 12, and Kentucky by 9. I watched them a few games ago against Florida. This is a careless team that turns the ball over way too much in crucial situations, and struggled to make free throws in big spots. In fact they give away way too many points from the foul line shooting only 54.3% on the road for the season. In games where they are over matched it is important not to give away points on the line, something the Tigers do way too often. Another key to the game, and a big concern for Auburn is their ability, or should I say inability to rebound. The Tigers are in the bottom 4 in rebounding in the SEC, that's not a good sign since Arkansas leads the conference with a +6 rebounding margin. Michael Washington should have his way in the paint. In big time match ups against Blake Griffin he had 24 and 11, and recently against Varnado of Mis St he had 18 and 15. He has proven he can contol the paint against the best in the country something his opponent Kortney Barber hasn't. Barber, Auburn's best player laid an egg against the best big man he faced this season scoring only 4 points, and grabbing 5 boards, against Kentucky's Patrick Patterson. I think whoever wins this battle in the paint will win the game, and from the looks of it all signs point to Washington. Throw in the fact Auburn's road woes (37.6%fg, 28.4% 3pt , 54.3% ft, 15.5 to/g), and the fact that Arkansas will be playing with a sense of desperation Arkansas should win this game rather easily. Arkansas is 0-3 in SEC play. They are way too talented, and can ill afford to fall to 0-4 in the league, something they would have a tough time to dig out from. I am looking for a focused effort from a well rested, and motivated Arkansas team, and a 15 point victory.
Great situations for the Backs right here. They come in rested and ready to go, not having played in a week. They have lost 3 straight games, but 2 of those were on the road, and the first was a let down game coming after their upset win over Texas. Arkansas is 10-1 in Fayetville on the season, and get to play an Auburn team that has struggled on the road this season with a 1-5 mark. In SEC play Auburn has lost on the road to S. Carolina by 12, and Kentucky by 9. I watched them a few games ago against Florida. This is a careless team that turns the ball over way too much in crucial situations, and struggled to make free throws in big spots. In fact they give away way too many points from the foul line shooting only 54.3% on the road for the season. In games where they are over matched it is important not to give away points on the line, something the Tigers do way too often. Another key to the game, and a big concern for Auburn is their ability, or should I say inability to rebound. The Tigers are in the bottom 4 in rebounding in the SEC, that's not a good sign since Arkansas leads the conference with a +6 rebounding margin. Michael Washington should have his way in the paint. In big time match ups against Blake Griffin he had 24 and 11, and recently against Varnado of Mis St he had 18 and 15. He has proven he can contol the paint against the best in the country something his opponent Kortney Barber hasn't. Barber, Auburn's best player laid an egg against the best big man he faced this season scoring only 4 points, and grabbing 5 boards, against Kentucky's Patrick Patterson. I think whoever wins this battle in the paint will win the game, and from the looks of it all signs point to Washington. Throw in the fact Auburn's road woes (37.6%fg, 28.4% 3pt , 54.3% ft, 15.5 to/g), and the fact that Arkansas will be playing with a sense of desperation Arkansas should win this game rather easily. Arkansas is 0-3 in SEC play. They are way too talented, and can ill afford to fall to 0-4 in the league, something they would have a tough time to dig out from. I am looking for a focused effort from a well rested, and motivated Arkansas team, and a 15 point victory.
I like USC and Washington. Love to know which side the public is taking in that Wash Ucla game. I'm assuming Ucla but the Bruins have had a tough time at Washington the last few years and this is our worst team. If Washington can defend the perimeter I think they win by 10. If not, it will come down to the wire. I do not see Ucla winning easily but I figured TENN would beat Baltimore too.
SC hasn't won at Wazzu in a long time. Only kept it close once. I like them to break that pattern tomorrow.
Tennessee/Memphis Under 151.5
A common mis perception is that Memphis is still an up and down run and gun team. That is not the case this year. This Memphis team wins with defense only giving up 61.2ppg. In a game that is sure to be full of intensity, it is almost certainly not going to be a pretty game. Intensity benefits defensive effort much more than offensive execution. I feel this will be the case Saturday. Neither team can shoot a lick from 3 point range. There isn't going to be a shooter on the court that can fill it up on a consistent basis. Just look at these season numbers from 3 point range. Tenn; Tyler Smith 25%, Wayne Chism 26%, Tatum 33.7%, Maze 30.4%, Hopson 38%, Woolridge 30%. Memphis - Tyreke Evans 31.6%, Dozier 36%, Taggert 25%, Mack 29.6%, Anderson 21.1%, Sallie 40.7%, and Kemp 28.9%. It doesn't matter that Tenn is playing at home because they only shoot 26.9%. Now those are some awful numbers. I just don't see how this game is going to turn into a shoot out when neither team can shoot from the outside. Plus both teams are long, athletic teams that can get out and cover the perimeter. In Memphis case none of their big games have they had high scoring games. Case in point Syracse 72-65, Xavier 63-58, Gtown 79-70, and Cincinatti 60-45. The Tigers only shoot 40.6% from the field on the road, and 58.5% from the foul line. As for Tennessee there has been a lot of criticism coming down from the fans on their poor defensive outings as of late. There is no doubt that Pearl has stressed defense in practice, and that has been an area that they have been working on. If anything there will be much more of a concentrated effort on the defensive end from the Vols. If last years game is any indication this will be a low scoring game. Last year the total was set at 156, but the final score ended up being 66-62.
A common mis perception is that Memphis is still an up and down run and gun team. That is not the case this year. This Memphis team wins with defense only giving up 61.2ppg. In a game that is sure to be full of intensity, it is almost certainly not going to be a pretty game. Intensity benefits defensive effort much more than offensive execution. I feel this will be the case Saturday. Neither team can shoot a lick from 3 point range. There isn't going to be a shooter on the court that can fill it up on a consistent basis. Just look at these season numbers from 3 point range. Tenn; Tyler Smith 25%, Wayne Chism 26%, Tatum 33.7%, Maze 30.4%, Hopson 38%, Woolridge 30%. Memphis - Tyreke Evans 31.6%, Dozier 36%, Taggert 25%, Mack 29.6%, Anderson 21.1%, Sallie 40.7%, and Kemp 28.9%. It doesn't matter that Tenn is playing at home because they only shoot 26.9%. Now those are some awful numbers. I just don't see how this game is going to turn into a shoot out when neither team can shoot from the outside. Plus both teams are long, athletic teams that can get out and cover the perimeter. In Memphis case none of their big games have they had high scoring games. Case in point Syracse 72-65, Xavier 63-58, Gtown 79-70, and Cincinatti 60-45. The Tigers only shoot 40.6% from the field on the road, and 58.5% from the foul line. As for Tennessee there has been a lot of criticism coming down from the fans on their poor defensive outings as of late. There is no doubt that Pearl has stressed defense in practice, and that has been an area that they have been working on. If anything there will be much more of a concentrated effort on the defensive end from the Vols. If last years game is any indication this will be a low scoring game. Last year the total was set at 156, but the final score ended up being 66-62.
Wisconsin Milwaukee +13.5
Like the Panthers in this spot. I think they match up with Butler pretty well. Milw has the best front court in the league with Eayers, and Hill. They are 2nd in the Horizon in rebounding, while Butler is in the bottom of the league. Their advantage on the boards alone should be enough to help the Panthers stay close. Milwaukee has shown the ability to perform well on the road. They continue to shoot the 3 ball well away from home hitting at a 36.7% clip, while holding their opponents to 40% from the field, and 29.8% from 3. As for Butler they are a very good team, that has performed above their ability. Even with their 17-1 record they have only had 4 games where their margin of victroy was above the number for Saturday's game. Heinkel Fieldhouse is a tough place to play, but Milwaukee matches up well. Their ability to shoot the 3, and their ability to control the glass should at least keep this game close. They got caught looking ahead last game against Valpo, but their is no doubt they will be ready today.
Like the Panthers in this spot. I think they match up with Butler pretty well. Milw has the best front court in the league with Eayers, and Hill. They are 2nd in the Horizon in rebounding, while Butler is in the bottom of the league. Their advantage on the boards alone should be enough to help the Panthers stay close. Milwaukee has shown the ability to perform well on the road. They continue to shoot the 3 ball well away from home hitting at a 36.7% clip, while holding their opponents to 40% from the field, and 29.8% from 3. As for Butler they are a very good team, that has performed above their ability. Even with their 17-1 record they have only had 4 games where their margin of victroy was above the number for Saturday's game. Heinkel Fieldhouse is a tough place to play, but Milwaukee matches up well. Their ability to shoot the 3, and their ability to control the glass should at least keep this game close. They got caught looking ahead last game against Valpo, but their is no doubt they will be ready today.
Buffalo +8.5
Buffalo has been very good to me the past 3 games. They have got me the cover, and the straight up win at Akron, and at home against Kent St, and Ohio. I am going to test my luck 1 more time. I think this is a good match up for the Bulls. I think they have the ability to really dominate the glass, in turn giving them a sense of control of the game. Buffalo is the best rebounding team in the MAC with a +6 rebounding margin. Miami Oh on the other hand is 2nd to last in the MAC in rebounds. Buffalo is the more athletic team, which is much of the reason they are so good rebounding the ball. They have won 6 of their past 7 games, and rebounding has been a mian reason why, so here is UB's rebound margins in those game - kent st +10, ohio -9, akron +9, bowling green +7, col st +11, colorado +9, pepperdine. Along with rebounding UB's success has to do with their ability to shoot the 3, something Miami Oh has not been able to do. Since losing their point guard Kenny Hayes for the season the Redhawks have really been on the decline from the outside. Here is their numbers for their past 5 game - Bowling Green 14.3%, Kent St 18.2%,Ohio 37%, Akron 17.6%, and Dayton 15.4%. Ouch, those numbers aren't going to cut it. Buffalo is playing with a supreme sense of confidence, and still don't seem to be getting the love even after taking down 3 of the teams that are thought to contend for the MAC title. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder, and look at this game against Miami as a final stepping stone as being recognized as the team to beat in the conference. With Hayes out of the lineup teams have been able to focus on Bramos, Miami Oh's main scoring threat. With all the attention directed at him he hasn't been as productive at times. Buffalo doesn't have that problem. Calvin Betts has elevated his game to give UB a 2nd solid scoring option behind Rodney Pierce. Betts has become one of the most accurate 3 point shooters in the MAC to go along with being the team leader in rebounding. I think Pierce and Betts will be enough for UB to at very least get the cover in what is to be a statement game for them.
Buffalo has been very good to me the past 3 games. They have got me the cover, and the straight up win at Akron, and at home against Kent St, and Ohio. I am going to test my luck 1 more time. I think this is a good match up for the Bulls. I think they have the ability to really dominate the glass, in turn giving them a sense of control of the game. Buffalo is the best rebounding team in the MAC with a +6 rebounding margin. Miami Oh on the other hand is 2nd to last in the MAC in rebounds. Buffalo is the more athletic team, which is much of the reason they are so good rebounding the ball. They have won 6 of their past 7 games, and rebounding has been a mian reason why, so here is UB's rebound margins in those game - kent st +10, ohio -9, akron +9, bowling green +7, col st +11, colorado +9, pepperdine. Along with rebounding UB's success has to do with their ability to shoot the 3, something Miami Oh has not been able to do. Since losing their point guard Kenny Hayes for the season the Redhawks have really been on the decline from the outside. Here is their numbers for their past 5 game - Bowling Green 14.3%, Kent St 18.2%,Ohio 37%, Akron 17.6%, and Dayton 15.4%. Ouch, those numbers aren't going to cut it. Buffalo is playing with a supreme sense of confidence, and still don't seem to be getting the love even after taking down 3 of the teams that are thought to contend for the MAC title. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder, and look at this game against Miami as a final stepping stone as being recognized as the team to beat in the conference. With Hayes out of the lineup teams have been able to focus on Bramos, Miami Oh's main scoring threat. With all the attention directed at him he hasn't been as productive at times. Buffalo doesn't have that problem. Calvin Betts has elevated his game to give UB a 2nd solid scoring option behind Rodney Pierce. Betts has become one of the most accurate 3 point shooters in the MAC to go along with being the team leader in rebounding. I think Pierce and Betts will be enough for UB to at very least get the cover in what is to be a statement game for them.
Uconn -1.5
Another battle that involves a good defensive team against a good offensive team where I will obviously back the good defensive team. It also doesn't hurt that the good defensive team has 5 double figure scorers and are almost as good on offense as Notre Dame. However the Huskies win with defense. They only allow 62.6 ppg on 38.7% shooting, while being one of the best rebounding teams in the league with a +9 rebounding margin. The Huskies have shown they can win on the road going 8-0 with some wins against the very best in the country. In December they went on the road to win at Gonzaga, and have won at West Virginia, and at Cincinatti in conference. The Huskies also have the personnel that is best equipped to slow down the high scoring ND offense. They have a huge, athletic front line that is 2nd to none. They have the bodies, and the depth to throw at Harangody and the Irish. ND has only been going 7 deep during conference play with each starter averaging 35min/g. That isn't good for Harangody since he is going to be going up against the best front line of Jeff Adrien, Stanely Robinson, and Thabeet. I saw first hand from a few feet away the effect a big, physical fronline could do to him. Arinze Onaku, and Rick Jackson were able to block a few of his shots early, and forced him to take more jump shots, and fade aways then I have seen him take in his 3 years at ND. It looked like the physical play was bothering him a little. Either that or he was tired from not getting a rest, but either way he went 9-28 from the field with many of those being fall away jump shots. If they can force him to do the same the Huskies will be in good shape. They will also be in great shape if ND continues to play defense they way they have been recently. This will be the key to the game. ND has allowed opponents to shoot an extremely high %. In Big East play every opponent has shot better than 42%, and 3 of them shot over 50%. That isn't going to get it done in the Big East, especially against a team that will get after you defensively. I know the Joyce Center is one of the toughest places to play in the country, but Uconn is too good on the defensive end, while ND struggles to say the least. I think the Huskies will get more easy baskets then the Irish and escape with a win.
Another battle that involves a good defensive team against a good offensive team where I will obviously back the good defensive team. It also doesn't hurt that the good defensive team has 5 double figure scorers and are almost as good on offense as Notre Dame. However the Huskies win with defense. They only allow 62.6 ppg on 38.7% shooting, while being one of the best rebounding teams in the league with a +9 rebounding margin. The Huskies have shown they can win on the road going 8-0 with some wins against the very best in the country. In December they went on the road to win at Gonzaga, and have won at West Virginia, and at Cincinatti in conference. The Huskies also have the personnel that is best equipped to slow down the high scoring ND offense. They have a huge, athletic front line that is 2nd to none. They have the bodies, and the depth to throw at Harangody and the Irish. ND has only been going 7 deep during conference play with each starter averaging 35min/g. That isn't good for Harangody since he is going to be going up against the best front line of Jeff Adrien, Stanely Robinson, and Thabeet. I saw first hand from a few feet away the effect a big, physical fronline could do to him. Arinze Onaku, and Rick Jackson were able to block a few of his shots early, and forced him to take more jump shots, and fade aways then I have seen him take in his 3 years at ND. It looked like the physical play was bothering him a little. Either that or he was tired from not getting a rest, but either way he went 9-28 from the field with many of those being fall away jump shots. If they can force him to do the same the Huskies will be in good shape. They will also be in great shape if ND continues to play defense they way they have been recently. This will be the key to the game. ND has allowed opponents to shoot an extremely high %. In Big East play every opponent has shot better than 42%, and 3 of them shot over 50%. That isn't going to get it done in the Big East, especially against a team that will get after you defensively. I know the Joyce Center is one of the toughest places to play in the country, but Uconn is too good on the defensive end, while ND struggles to say the least. I think the Huskies will get more easy baskets then the Irish and escape with a win.
