Homedawg's Saturday Plays

[homedawg]

Oh Ive gotten screwed big time worse than this with totals before.. but with the pace they have been playing at and their shooting percentages, not just this game but season-long, a loss here would be real fuckin tough.

oh trust me i fully expect to win this game, and don't even think they will come close to the 2nd half total of 77. i wouldn't have had such a big play on it if i didn't. all i'm saying is anything can happen. a loss here would be tough , yes

 

[ELMO75]

IMO I think they put the Highest number they could put for the 2nd half at 77.5. I look for a Carbon copy of the first half in the mid 60's. No reason for me to think they will suddenly start making 3's and drawing fouls instead of blocked shot inside.
Played it fot 2 units any way. I think Homed. was dead on in his assesment of this total.

 

[SportsSharpie]

Buffalo +8.5

Buffalo has been very good to me the past 3 games. They have got me the cover, and the straight up win at Akron, and at home against Kent St, and Ohio. I am going to test my luck 1 more time. I think this is a good match up for the Bulls. I think they have the ability to really dominate the glass, in turn giving them a sense of control of the game. Buffalo is the best rebounding team in the MAC with a +6 rebounding margin. Miami Oh on the other hand is 2nd to last in the MAC in rebounds. Buffalo is the more athletic team, which is much of the reason they are so good rebounding the ball. They have won 6 of their past 7 games, and rebounding has been a mian reason why, so here is UB's rebound margins in those game - kent st +10, ohio -9, akron +9, bowling green +7, col st +11, colorado +9, pepperdine. Along with rebounding UB's success has to do with their ability to shoot the 3, something Miami Oh has not been able to do. Since losing their point guard Kenny Hayes for the season the Redhawks have really been on the decline from the outside. Here is their numbers for their past 5 game - Bowling Green 14.3%, Kent St 18.2%,Ohio 37%, Akron 17.6%, and Dayton 15.4%. Ouch, those numbers aren't going to cut it. Buffalo is playing with a supreme sense of confidence, and still don't seem to be getting the love even after taking down 3 of the teams that are thought to contend for the MAC title. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder, and look at this game against Miami as a final stepping stone as being recognized as the team to beat in the conference. With Hayes out of the lineup teams have been able to focus on Bramos, Miami Oh's main scoring threat. With all the attention directed at him he hasn't been as productive at times. Buffalo doesn't have that problem. Calvin Betts has elevated his game to give UB a 2nd solid scoring option behind Rodney Pierce. Betts has become one of the most accurate 3 point shooters in the MAC to go along with being the team leader in rebounding. I think Pierce and Betts will be enough for UB to at very least get the cover in what is to be a statement game for them.

Be careful with Buffalo...78% of the public is on them (much like 79% was on Arkansas) and the line has dropped to Buffalo -7.5

 

[homedawg]

wisc/ill nice little pace as well. washington asnwered nicely. let's get this thing back on track

 

[homedawg]

Be careful with Buffalo...78% of the public is on them (much like 79% was on Arkansas) and the line has dropped to Buffalo -7.5

if the line dropped that would be a good thing if you believed in that type of stuff:think2:

 

[krk1030]

Is the Buffalo game canceled or something?

 

[SportsSharpie]

Not sure what happened in the Arkansas game? 80% or so on Ark, but line down to -2.5/-3

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e154646 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #bbddff" onclick="testHit('e154646', event)"><TD id=score width=62>73
51FINAL
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>519 Auburn
520 Arkansas
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>13810
</TD><TD id=spreadpct width=50>19%
81%
</TD><TD id=mlpct width=50>14%
86%
</TD><TD id=oupct width=50>50%
50%
</TD><TD class=linebox width=75>139.5 -110
-4.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>142.5 -110
-3-110
</TD><TD class=linebox width=75>139 -105
-4.5-105
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>142u-106
-3-106
</TD><TD class=linebox width=75>139.5 -110
-4.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>142 -110
-3-110
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My reasoning for suggesting to stay away earlier

 

[ELMO75]

wisc/ill nice little pace as well. washington asnwered nicely. let's get this thing back on track

never thought it was off track playing w/ the 12 units or so you already won me this week. Keep up the good work and don't let a couple of bad games get to you.

 

[SportsSharpie]

if the line dropped that would be a good thing if you believed in that type of stuff:think2:

100% Incorrect...if 78% is on the favorite's side, and the line has dropped, Vegas is trying to get more action on that side...and it's not so they can pay out more $$$...could still win, just saying be careful

 

[midman2161]

Yeah but Buff is plus 7.5.. line moving in the right direction

 

[midman2161]

100% Incorrect...if 78% is on the favorite's side, and the line has dropped, Vegas is trying to get more action on that side...and it's not so they can pay out more $$$...could still win, just saying be careful

Do you realize that Miami Ohio is favored?

 

[ELMO75]

UCLA is 0 for its last 4 at UDUBB!!

 

[SportsSharpie]

100% Incorrect...if 78% is on the favorite's side, and the line has dropped, Vegas is trying to get more action on that side...and it's not so they can pay out more $$$...could still win, just saying be careful

My bad man...u are right about the movement...moving in the right direction...sorry about that...G/L

 

[homedawg]

100% Incorrect...if 78% is on the favorite's side, and the line has dropped, Vegas is trying to get more action on that side...and it's not so they can pay out more $$$...could still win, just saying be careful

i think you may want to double check that sir

 

[Hamboner0182]

both teams are really draining that shot clock in illinois

 

[SportsSharpie]

i think you may want to double check that sir

Yes you were right...I just glanced at it...not playing it so wasn't focusing on the game...my apologies

 

[homedawg]

Yes you were right...I just glanced at it...not playing it so wasn't focusing on the game...my apologies

no problems. gl with the games

 

[homedawg]

shoout out in tenn

 

[krk1030]

Hot start to 2h in knoxville :smoking:

 

[midman2161]

Here comes the scoring.. at least Memphis is trying to slow it down. And they are still a solid 4 minutes behind pace for the over.