Homedawg's Saturday Plays (Big East + MVC)

[homedawg]

Providence +12

Suddenly Providence comes in as the hot team while Georgetown is the team that is reeling. After a slow start Providence is starting to live up to the expectations they had set at the beginning of the season. They have won 7 of 8, and 4 straight overall, including 3 straight big east games. The last win may have been the most important. They went into the Shoe, one of the toughest places to play in the conference, and came out with a wire to wire win over Cincinatti. The Friars have also shown the ability to play Gtown close over the years. Sometimes you just have a teams number, and they have seem to have the Hoyas. PC can cause a ton of match up problems for the Hoyas. Almost every player on the roster has the ability to knock down the 3, which can really stretch the defense. Georgetown has also been suspect on the glass on occasion this year. PC showed against Cincinatti that they can hold their own rebounding the ball. I don't see Georgetown dominating the glass like they did against WVU. McDermott has a big body that can drag Monroe away from the basket, and can create for himself, or for others. There is also no denying the potential on this PC team. An interesting stat that i noticed is that at one point in each of their careers every member of Providence's 8 man rotations has averaged double figures for at least 1 whole season in their career at the school. That alone shows the talent this team has. Anyone that can go a whole season averaging double figures in the big east has talent. So to have 8 of them that did at some point in their career is something special. It shows that PC has plenty of scoring options who can take over a game at any moment. They haven't been shooting the ball all that well, but they have the personnel that can knock down the 3. Plus there is no shock that PC is getting better as the year goes on. It is just their first year under Keno Davis and as the more time that goes by in his system the better the Friars have got. It is a unique system that spreads the floor, and requires anyone who steps on the floor to be able to stroke the 3 ball. As I said PC does have that ability and have been getting better with more and more repitition. In all Providence is getting hot right at the right time, and catch a Gtown team that is reeling after a home loss to Pitt, and a road loss against Notre Dame. They haven't looked great in either contest and I expect the Friars to surprise some people and make this a closer game then some expect

 

[homedawg]

Florida St +9

It seems this FSU team has had Duke's number the past few years. They lost to Duke the last time they entered Talahasse, but won at Cameron the time before that. I like this year's FSU team a little more because they have been winning with tough defense. They have held opponents under 50 points and amazing 9 times this year, and expect a good defensive effort against a Duke team that is a little bit easier to guard this season. Duke has been struggling with the 3 ball all year so it is a little bit easier to defend them. Florida St showed that they can compete at home by beating Florida earlier in the year, and then led Pitt for most of the game, before falling by 8. That 8 game final was no where near how close that game really was. I watched the entire game and it was a battle the entire game. I was impressed with a few things in that game. Firs they played excellent defense throughout holding Pitt to just 33% shooting. They also held their own on the glass against arguably the best rebounding team in the country. They were -8 on the glass that night, but more than held their own. They are +2 on the glass on the season, and this is a point where I think they can exploit the Blue Devils, who have no dominant inside presence. I think this is going to be a low scoring game, and will gladly take the 9 points as a gift at home

 

[6figure]

Keep up the hard work homedawg......your efforts are appriciated...gl

 

[OAKAS]

Great write-ups, homedawg.

Dartmouth was the first game that stuck out on first looks for me.

Keep up the great work.:toast:

 

[Swift456]

Louisville +2

Think I may be able to squeeze out another half point or so if I waited, but I don't want to take any chances as 2 points could be huge here. I think this is a very favorable matchup for the Cardinals. They have the guards that can keep up with Nova with their athleticism and quickness, but they have the size with their front court that can really exploit a small Villanova squad. You have to remember that these are still the exact same teams where Louisville was seen a legit final 4 contender, and Nova a middle of the pack Big East team. The Cards have suffered some very tough losses, including a home loss to Western kentucky, and a loss on neutral court to Minnesota. However since then they have been playing much better ball. Most importantly when it seemed all as lost, and Edgar Sosa had finally dug himself so far into Pitino's doghouse you wondered if he would ever see light again, he has exploded and really been the difference in Louisville's resurgence the past 2 games. After going scoreless and scoring 6 points against UAB, and then playing 12 minutes and 2 points in a loss against UNLV, Sosa has busted out and scored 18 and 12 points the last 2 games against Kentucky and So Florida. It may not seem like a lot, but Sosa is the type of player who must be feeling good to perform well. He is an extremely streaky player who can bury a team when he is down, but carry a team when he is on. I really think he has turned the corner and will be an important factor in Saturday's outcome against Nova. They are going to need his experience and ball handling against a guard oriented Nova squad. With Sosa coming in on a high note the Cards have an excellent shot at stealing the win. Between Sosa, Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles, and Andre McGee the Cards have the experience and the athletes to hold their own against Villanova's excellent back court. Now to where the game will be won; the front court. I just don't see how Villanova can match up with this Louisville front line. Between Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, and Samardo Samuels the Cards have 3 legit all league players. They should be able to control the glass against an under sized Wildcat team. Samuels is an absolute work horse down low and should have his way. Clark and Williams are both well rounded players, who athleitcism will be tough to match. When looking at teams similar to Nova's personnel they absolutely dominated the glass against UNLV +9, UAB +16, and Ole Miss +16. None of those teams have a dominant big man, and all play a similar 4 guard lineup such as Villanova. Louisville has been +12.3 on the glass the past 9 games and this should continue, and play a major role in deciding the outcome of the game. There is no denying the talent is there for Louisville it is just a matter of putting it all together. With Sosa's improved play, and Louisville responding with 2 big wins (Kentucky, @ So Fla), I think they have enough momentum to go into Philly and coming out with the win. This is a tough match up for Nova. Look for Louisville's guard to play well enough while their front court is the deciding factor.

Good Writeup and Your right about Sosa has been playing well, But Terrance Williams hasn't, Still he's a great player, Clark is good 2 but he looks lazidazical at times. But just want to say, How is A win at South Florida Big ....lol

 

[jbragg10]

I see one game I am on for sure with you and that is Louisville.

I think Louisville is going to win straight up by about 6-7 points. They will be my biggest play today. Glad to see us on the same page with that one!

Good luck.

 

[bobano]

I'm really concerned about Cincinnati's lack of scoring and they'll need to find ways to produce offensively if they are going to hang around against UConn and I just don't know if they can.

 

[roxymusic]

I still don't have the nads to trust the Aces on the road but I'll be rooting for you. I'm coming right back on the Braves in the MVC today, the Jays have been sliding fast.

GL

 

[homedawg]

Good Writeup and Your right about Sosa has been playing well, But Terrance Williams hasn't, Still he's a great player, Clark is good 2 but he looks lazidazical at times. But just want to say, How is A win at South Florida Big ....lol

any road win in the big east is big imo. so fla is always tough at home. the way they looked was a little more impressive then the win itself i should have added.

GL

 

[homedawg]

I still don't have the nads to trust the Aces on the road but I'll be rooting for you. I'm coming right back on the Braves in the MVC today, the Jays have been sliding fast.

GL

I have watched so illinois about 5 times this year and there is something seriously wrong with them. this is a bad bad team and i think they still get a little extra juice just b/c of their name. the way evansville came back to win on the road last sunday, and how they performed against unc showed me that they may be turning the corner, plus with an experienced lineup i think they can get it done.

i commented in your thread about bradley. they are definitely on my list and want to play them, but i have cashed their first 4 valley games. so don't want to push my luck. we'll see how the day goes then make a decision. they do match up pretty well with the jays

GL:toast:

 

[homedawg]

Some of the early totals are being posted now. waiting to see numbers on a few games and may have something there

 

[philly74]

marq line dropped to from 2.5 when i tried to make bet

 

[philly74]

to one i meant

 

[hannowsky77]

good luck today homedawg and i love the louisville pick...so far im taking hofstra +13.5 and tenn-8 hoftsra is the big play though

 

[wemdomer04]

home,

love the write ups absolutely great stuff my friend. I appreciate the analysis and insight you bring to the forum.

wem

 

[homedawg]

Thanks guys. plan on getting things going again today. really feel comfortable with the big east, and mvc plays

 

[BBBILLY]

Were you joking about Dartmouth in that other thread?

 

[Twisted]

was just comin to ask the same thing!:missingte

GL today HD

 

[homedawg]

No I think they win this one.

 

[homedawg]

i do have a 4 unit play on them, may make a small play on the ML