Oklahoma St + ?
I am going to make a play on Oklahoma St probably for 4 units? I could have got +3.5 a little bit ago, but held off and the line dropped to +2.5. I think I may be able to squeeze out another half point at absolute worst so going to hold off before playing, and officially posting it as a play. I will play however, and if I have to play at +2.5 it will be for 3 units. Anyways onto the game.
I think I have a few things working for Ok St here. First this is a rivalry game so without a doubt will be played with a lot of intensity. Stillwater is an extremely tough place to play. Ok St is always very good at home, and would like nothing more than to upset their arch rival. But is this even an upset at home? Not really imo. Fact is statistically Ok St is better in many areas of the game. The Cowboys have a lot of firepower with 5 double figure scorers, where Oklahoma relies on 2 scorers for the majority of their offense. Say 1 of those players (cough Griffin) has an off game, then what? Look at this firepower; James Anderson 18ppg, Obi Muonelo 15.6, Terrel Harris 14.3, Byron Eaton 13.6, Keaton Page 10.2. That is some serious scoring, and that is why Oklahoma St is 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring at 85.4 ppg, and are barely out of 1st place. In fact Ok St is tops on most offensive categories. Along with 2nd in scoring they are 2nd in free throw % , and they lead the Big 12 in 3 point %, and 2nd in the nation with a 41.5% . Their ability to shoot the 3 ball can easily negate Griffin's advantage down low. The 3 can chance the outlook of the game in many ways. Throw in the fact that OU has been struggling to guard the line (last 3 gms Texas AM 43.8%, Nebraska 40.8%, Baylor 35.4%), and the Sooners could be in trouble against their rival. Although OK St will be at a disadvantage down low they still have managed to out rebound 3 of their 4 Big 12 opponents. They have an athletic team, and will be able to compete on the glass with OU. Obviously Travis Ford wants his team playing at an uptempo pace. I think this could be a huge key to tonight's game. OU is very thin,and rely on their starters for major minutes. I have seen Griffin get easily winded from time to time. If Ok St can control the tempo like I think they can, and play at this high speed, they have the ability to fatigue Blake Griffin. He is a big guy, who plays hard, but it's near impossible to play 37 minutes a game at that size, at this speed, with the fans standing right on top of you. So to go along with their shooting, I think the speed of the game can also be used against Griffin. OU would much rather play a team that wants to grind it out so they can run their offense and feed Griffin the ball in the post. With Ok St pressing they have a chance of getting OU out of sink. Warren is a gunner, who takes some questionable shots. It will be very interesting to see how he composes himself, in a hostile environment, in an up and down type of game. Ok St has only lost once at home this year to Missouri. They expect to win at home, and tonight should be no different.
Oklahoma St 84
Oklahoma 80
hno:
