Homedawg's Monday Plays

[GimmeDattt]

unc will do the same thing to wake at their place.


wake was very impressing though

Yea, UNC I thought was far and away the best team in the nation. Now, not so sure. Also, learned a lot about Wake. Teague won them that game and UNC shot only 36% but it appears that Wake would be able to win that game atleast 6/10 times at home.

ACC has 4 very good teams this year...very top heavy.

 

[GimmeDattt]

HD,

I'm new here and was hoping you can give me a quick explanation of the Unit system and how that translates to dollars on a scale?

For example, if I'm starting out, how should I breakdown my budget in terms of units?

You help is always appreciated.

I'm not homedawg but it depends on your bankroll. Whats your bankroll?

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Only thing I'm worried about ND is their average on the road. They struggled vs. DePaul and lost to St. John's both teams worse than Louisville. Harangody went for 40 points last year, but they still lost though Louisville is missing their best player from last year IMO David Padgett. Louisville is inconsistent on offense, but they do play really good defense and ND struggles vs. teams like them.

With the way ND has played this year compared to Louisville the line reminds me of yesterday with Purdue beating Wisconsin as I expected it to be Louisville -4 at the most.

 

[cdsmoney]

HD,

I'm new here and was hoping you can give me a quick explanation of the Unit system and how that translates to dollars on a scale?

For example, if I'm starting out, how should I breakdown my budget in terms of units?

You help is always appreciated.

If following a capper like HD who uses a reasonable unit system (no 100 unit winners or 25 unit games of the week, etc. In fact, you'll note his 7-unit Wake play was his largest of the year and might end up being the largest of the year), I would recommend something along the lines of dividing my bankroll by 100 (maybe 200 - depends on how conservative you are).

For example, $2000 bankroll/100 = $20 per unit. This allows for you to stay in the game the whole season and weather the dips (HD is straightforward enough to let you know there will be a few of those).

Just my $.02.

 

[Swift456]

Gl 2n Budday. Congrats on the nice score with Wake Forest. I learned my lesson on UNC. I have to admit, I thought they were much better then that.

Carolina made be in some sort of Funk right now, Kinda like how that Florida team two years ago struggled for a bit then rolled the rest of the way, However that was a championship team

This Unc team has had a tough time winning big games in the tournament and they have yet to get over that hump, They didn't look good yesterday it will be interesting to see how they play the rest of the year

 

[cubbiefan16]

Best of luck homedawg. App St definitely holds the rebounding advantage (although Davidson isn't terrible on the boards), but I think they are going to turn the ball over like crazy. They turn it over on 24% of their posessions (against very below average defenses) and Davidson is in the top 20% in D1 forcing turnovers. On the other side, Davidson is top 10 (out of 344) in D1 at not turning the ball over on offense and Appy is 327 out of 344 in forcing turnovers (again, against below average offenses).

Don't mean to go against you in your thread, and still think Appy could cover, but just wanted to post why I didn't go with St here. Again, good luck and I hope the Mountaineers cover for you.

 

[homedawg]

Carolina made be in some sort of Funk right now, Kinda like how that Florida team two years ago struggled for a bit then rolled the rest of the way, However that was a championship team

This Unc team has had a tough time winning big games in the tournament and they have yet to get over that hump, They didn't look good yesterday it will be interesting to see how they play the rest of the year

I wouldn;t say UNC is in a funk. they got beat by 2 very good teams. BC was an upset, but that happens in a long season. i for 1 didn't expect them to beat Wake. They will be fine, it's just 2 games

 

[homedawg]

HD,

I'm new here and was hoping you can give me a quick explanation of the Unit system and how that translates to dollars on a scale?

For example, if I'm starting out, how should I breakdown my budget in terms of units?

You help is always appreciated.

UGA - I would have given you the exact same advice cdsmoney gave you a few posts after yours. most people will say to only play 1-3% of your bankroll on any given play. i for one am slightly more aggressive and will get up to around 5% on some plays (Wake last night), but that's just me. Whatever you feel comfortable with is what you should go with. I would def advise to follow now more than 5% on any given play, and for the most part stick with 1 - 3% on any given play, maybe even less. Some people only play .5%. totally up to you. no matter what you are playing you shouldn't be bothered after a loss. If you find losses effecting you than it is a sign that you are wagering too much.

as for my unit scale my plays are based on 1 - 10 unit. very rarely if ever do i have anything more than 7. wake was a 7 unit play last night, and my biggest play so far this season. i went the whole mlb season (700+ plays) and only had (1) 10 unit play (winner seattle), and only about 2 or 3 (7) unit plays (both winners). most my plays will be 2 - 4 plays, and will have more 3-5 once conference play started.

hope this helps. gl

 

[UGA]

Unit System Question

HD,

I'm new here and was hoping you can give me a quick explanation of the Unit system and how that translates to dollars on a scale?

For example, if I'm starting out, how should I breakdown my budget in terms of units?

You help is always appreciated.

FYI, my bankroll is $1000

 

[homedawg]

Best of luck homedawg. App St definitely holds the rebounding advantage (although Davidson isn't terrible on the boards), but I think they are going to turn the ball over like crazy. They turn it over on 24% of their posessions (against very below average defenses) and Davidson is in the top 20% in D1 forcing turnovers. On the other side, Davidson is top 10 (out of 344) in D1 at not turning the ball over on offense and Appy is 327 out of 344 in forcing turnovers (again, against below average offenses).

Don't mean to go against you in your thread, and still think Appy could cover, but just wanted to post why I didn't go with St here. Again, good luck and I hope the Mountaineers cover for you.

it's fine it is good to see different point of views, and this is my main concern. i am just counting on their ability to rebound to lessen the TO margin. davidson gets every teams best shot so that could help the concentration. a lot of turnovers are a result of carelessness and if they play a focused game they should be able to cut down on the turnovers.

def a legitimate concern

 

[myboymagic]

Best of luck homedawg. App St definitely holds the rebounding advantage (although Davidson isn't terrible on the boards), but I think they are going to turn the ball over like crazy. They turn it over on 24% of their posessions (against very below average defenses) and Davidson is in the top 20% in D1 forcing turnovers. On the other side, Davidson is top 10 (out of 344) in D1 at not turning the ball over on offense and Appy is 327 out of 344 in forcing turnovers (again, against below average offenses).

Don't mean to go against you in your thread, and still think Appy could cover, but just wanted to post why I didn't go with St here. Again, good luck and I hope the Mountaineers cover for you.

they also just got beat by a 1-11 unc greenboro team at home who's only win prior was against weber? maybe they were looking ahead, but app st. schedule does not impress me, nor does their huge margin of defeat to Texas, Kentucky and Niagra. Haven't seen app. st play, so I can't comment too much other than Davidson has played a lot tougher schedule and app. st players are not on the level of Davidsons opponents this year. railbird mentioned something about an injury, so maybe that contributed to the loss to uncg

 

[homedawg]

FYI, my bankroll is $1000

were you able to see my response?

 

[homedawg]

Yea, UNC I thought was far and away the best team in the nation. Now, not so sure. Also, learned a lot about Wake. Teague won them that game and UNC shot only 36% but it appears that Wake would be able to win that game atleast 6/10 times at home.

ACC has 4 very good teams this year...very top heavy.

i think they win closer to 7 to 8 times at home, while unc wins 7 to 8 at their place. neutral court. i say 60/40 unc, maybe a little bit less. this wake team is for real. teague proved why he is an all american, and that johnson has elevated himself to first team all league. anytime you have an all american point guard you have a chance to win every game. to go along with teague and johnson you have a future lotter pick with aminu, and the size that can amtch up with anybody. chas macfarland has improved a great deal. between mcfarland, johnson, aminu, and tony woods their size and athleticism is unmatched. then you have teauge at point and LD Williams as a lock up defender. Ishmael Smith is the quickest pg in the acc and gives them good depth at the point. harvey hale gives them even more depth. their 1 achilles heel could be shooting. teague is really their only shooter so the 1 team Gaudino doesn't want to see in the NCAA is a team like Syracuse who can pack in the zone and force them to beat them from the outside. call it a homer statement all you want, but i can see the zone defense giving this team all sorts of problems. i think most coaches have too big of egos to play the zone against them, but if some were to start it could prove troublesome.

 

[cubbiefan16]

it's fine it is good to see different point of views, and this is my main concern. i am just counting on their ability to rebound to lessen the TO margin. davidson gets every teams best shot so that could help the concentration. a lot of turnovers are a result of carelessness and if they play a focused game they should be able to cut down on the turnovers.

def a legitimate concern

I'm glad to see you aren't one of those who flips out when someone posts an opposing view point and instead take it constructively. That's much appreciated. I still think the final number will be very close to 11, but the TO/Reb differences definitely makes it a no play for me (with a lean to Davidson). Again, good luck to you HD.

 

[homedawg]

Only thing I'm worried about ND is their average on the road. They struggled vs. DePaul and lost to St. John's both teams worse than Louisville. Harangody went for 40 points last year, but they still lost though Louisville is missing their best player from last year IMO David Padgett. Louisville is inconsistent on offense, but they do play really good defense and ND struggles vs. teams like them.

With the way ND has played this year compared to Louisville the line reminds me of yesterday with Purdue beating Wisconsin as I expected it to be Louisville -4 at the most.

ND should have much more of a focused effort against Louisville. Also Lou back court is much worse than St John's. I really think they can take advantage of Sosa and Smith. I think this is a really good match up for them. Their historic road struggles do worry me a bit, but because Louisville guards will be out matched so much in this one I can see Notre Dame getting the lead and holding onto it. I think Harangody can get Samuels in foul trouble too. With him out of the middle Harangody could have a field day.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Samuels has looked lost in Big East play and Sosa is overrated big time as he shoots way too many 3. ND just needs to keep it close in the first half as last year they are down big and with their solid FT shooting I like their chances to keep it around 5.

What do you think the Syracuse line will be at GT later this week?

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

What do you think the Syracuse line will be at GT later this week?

Is that Georgetown or GT? I think the # will be around 6, Cuse getting that many points against the Hoyas, giving that many against Tech. Don't quote me, just an off the top of the head estimation.


Dawg - like the Oklahoma play, already on it. Lean with you on App State as well but no play yet, maybe a better number coming? I don't like the ND play, not playing the other side though, just a no play here. Good luck tonight.

 

[UGA]

Thank you!

were you able to see my response?

I just saw it. Thanks HD. And also, thanks CDSMoney.

 

[homedawg]

they also just got beat by a 1-11 unc greenboro team at home who's only win prior was against weber? maybe they were looking ahead, but app st. schedule does not impress me, nor does their huge margin of defeat to Texas, Kentucky and Niagra. Haven't seen app. st play, so I can't comment too much other than Davidson has played a lot tougher schedule and app. st players are not on the level of Davidsons opponents this year. railbird mentioned something about an injury, so maybe that contributed to the loss to uncg

what's the 1 thing these 3 games all have in common?

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Is that Georgetown or GT? I think the # will be around 6, Cuse getting that many points against the Hoyas, giving that many against Tech. Don't quote me, just an off the top of the head estimation.


Dawg - like the Oklahoma play, already on it. Lean with you on App State as well but no play yet, maybe a better number coming? I don't like the ND play, not playing the other side though, just a no play here. Good luck tonight.

It is Georgetown. If Syracuse is getting 6 then I will be all over them.