And the Dems do. Ummkay...
Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald will be the next U.S. president
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.
'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'
The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump
'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.
Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.
They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.
'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election
Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, except the election of 1960 between John F. Kennedy (left) and Richard Nixon (right)
- Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Clinton in November - if he's the GOP nominee
- He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent
- Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960
- If either Rubio or Cruz were the GOP nominee, the model shows them losing to Clinton but winning against Sanders
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.
'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'
The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump
'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.
Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.
They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.
'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election
Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, except the election of 1960 between John F. Kennedy (left) and Richard Nixon (right)
Donald Trump cannot be stopped. Republicans need to prepare him for the White House
There is no longer any doubt about who will win the Republican nomination
There's only one conversation among Republicans in Washington this week: how to stop Donald Trump.
They are wrong.
What they should be asking themselves – after his extraordinary victory on Tuesday in the Nevada caucus – is how they can learn to love him.
Stopping him is not working. So far their strategy has developed from “hoping for the best” to “waiting for something to turn up”.
The remaining candidates seem terrified of going head to head with Mr Trump.
Consider this. Of the $215 million spent by Super Pacs – the cash-guzzling, arm's-length organisations that do the dirty work of a campaign – so far only $9.2 million has been spent on attacking Mr Trump, according to The New York Times. Peanuts.
And that's for the thinnest skinned candidate in the race. A glance at his Twitter feed is evidence enough of how badly he takes criticism. A toddler would be embarrassed.
Shock and awe attacks would be wasted now, however. The battleground is set. Super Tuesday looms next week and something more dramatic is needed.
Jeb Bush, once a presumed shoo-in for the job, offered a clue. As scion to the ultimate Republican dynasty, he fell on his sword after another thumping in South Carolina, the better for the anti-Trump vote to coalesce around a single standard bearer.
This is now what passes for conventional wisdom: Mr Trump leads because of the split vote against him so who is the next body to be thrown in front of the Trump juggernaut?
The liberal John Kasich? He has made clear he is not dropping out. He is going to run until he pockets the vice presidential position on the winner's ticket.
Ben Carson? His conservative supporters are most likely to go to Ted Cruz, the unliked Texas senator, with little prospect of lifting his numbers to anything close to the front-runner.
The only calculation that works at this stage is for Mr Cruz to fall in behind his fellow Cuban-American senator, Marco Rubio.
It makes a certain superficial sense: one titillates the conservative base while the other reassures the party establishment.
Think Reagan-Bush of 1980.
But surely the Republican elite have woken up to the smell of coffee by now… if not something less pleasant. It is not 1980.
If voters in angry America are rejecting the political elite by flocking to a charismatic reality TV star, it seems unlikely that they are going to buy a stitch-up worked out over sparkling water in the smoke-free rooms of Washington.
And there's the Trump card problem. When Mr Trump promised not to be a sore loser and opt for a third-party campaign in the event of rejection in the Republican primaries, he did so on the proviso that he was treated fairly by the Grand Old Party.
A backroom deal would provide him ample opportunity to cry foul, freeing him to run as an independent. He might not win, but he could make damn sure the Republican candidate didn't either.
All of which shows that radical steps are certainly needed. But banging heads together to stop Donald Trump is simply not going to cut it.
A bolder strategy is needed. It's time for the Republican party to start to love the Donald, to groom him as their candidate, rein in his excesses and curb his profanities.
It is not as crazy as it sounds.
In fact it has started. Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, is among the establishment figures who have begun quietly advising Mr Trump in something of a kitchen cabinet.
Much of his platform is up for grabs anyway. Cut through the bluster and he has left plenty languishing in the long grass. Foreign policy is to be decided by rooms of experts; economic policy will be subject to his own, much vaunted negotiation skills.
The Mexico wall and a ban on Muslims entering the US, of course, can't be finessed away.
But the rest is centrist, moderate – his admiration for single payer healthcare, for example – and a long way from the conservative, tea party wing of the party.
With his name recognition, forceful charisma and energy, there are worse candidates with which to fight a presidential election.
The country has changed. Donald Trump offers the Republican Party a chance to change with it.
This is no longer about whether he is the best candidate. That was last year's question.
He is simply the candidate.
There is no longer any doubt about who will win the Republican nomination
There's only one conversation among Republicans in Washington this week: how to stop Donald Trump.
They are wrong.
What they should be asking themselves – after his extraordinary victory on Tuesday in the Nevada caucus – is how they can learn to love him.
Stopping him is not working. So far their strategy has developed from “hoping for the best” to “waiting for something to turn up”.
The remaining candidates seem terrified of going head to head with Mr Trump.
Consider this. Of the $215 million spent by Super Pacs – the cash-guzzling, arm's-length organisations that do the dirty work of a campaign – so far only $9.2 million has been spent on attacking Mr Trump, according to The New York Times. Peanuts.
And that's for the thinnest skinned candidate in the race. A glance at his Twitter feed is evidence enough of how badly he takes criticism. A toddler would be embarrassed.
Shock and awe attacks would be wasted now, however. The battleground is set. Super Tuesday looms next week and something more dramatic is needed.
Jeb Bush, once a presumed shoo-in for the job, offered a clue. As scion to the ultimate Republican dynasty, he fell on his sword after another thumping in South Carolina, the better for the anti-Trump vote to coalesce around a single standard bearer.
This is now what passes for conventional wisdom: Mr Trump leads because of the split vote against him so who is the next body to be thrown in front of the Trump juggernaut?
The liberal John Kasich? He has made clear he is not dropping out. He is going to run until he pockets the vice presidential position on the winner's ticket.
Ben Carson? His conservative supporters are most likely to go to Ted Cruz, the unliked Texas senator, with little prospect of lifting his numbers to anything close to the front-runner.
The only calculation that works at this stage is for Mr Cruz to fall in behind his fellow Cuban-American senator, Marco Rubio.
It makes a certain superficial sense: one titillates the conservative base while the other reassures the party establishment.
Think Reagan-Bush of 1980.
But surely the Republican elite have woken up to the smell of coffee by now… if not something less pleasant. It is not 1980.
If voters in angry America are rejecting the political elite by flocking to a charismatic reality TV star, it seems unlikely that they are going to buy a stitch-up worked out over sparkling water in the smoke-free rooms of Washington.
And there's the Trump card problem. When Mr Trump promised not to be a sore loser and opt for a third-party campaign in the event of rejection in the Republican primaries, he did so on the proviso that he was treated fairly by the Grand Old Party.
A backroom deal would provide him ample opportunity to cry foul, freeing him to run as an independent. He might not win, but he could make damn sure the Republican candidate didn't either.
All of which shows that radical steps are certainly needed. But banging heads together to stop Donald Trump is simply not going to cut it.
A bolder strategy is needed. It's time for the Republican party to start to love the Donald, to groom him as their candidate, rein in his excesses and curb his profanities.
It is not as crazy as it sounds.
In fact it has started. Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, is among the establishment figures who have begun quietly advising Mr Trump in something of a kitchen cabinet.
Much of his platform is up for grabs anyway. Cut through the bluster and he has left plenty languishing in the long grass. Foreign policy is to be decided by rooms of experts; economic policy will be subject to his own, much vaunted negotiation skills.
The Mexico wall and a ban on Muslims entering the US, of course, can't be finessed away.
But the rest is centrist, moderate – his admiration for single payer healthcare, for example – and a long way from the conservative, tea party wing of the party.
With his name recognition, forceful charisma and energy, there are worse candidates with which to fight a presidential election.
The country has changed. Donald Trump offers the Republican Party a chance to change with it.
This is no longer about whether he is the best candidate. That was last year's question.
He is simply the candidate.
[h=1]How Melania Trump left her bleak Communist upbringing behind: From a childhood apartment overlooking smoke-filled Yugoslav factories all the way to the White House[/h]
Overlooked by Communist-era apartment blocks and ever-smoking factory chimneys, the Slovenian home town of the third wife of Donald Trump is a far cry from the luxurious surroundings more familiar to a potential First Lady.
But Melania Trump has seen more of the world than most people - a journey propelled by her own big dreams concocted as a young girl growing up under Communism.
Now she is a glamorous former model swathed in couture, a woman familiar with the capitals and the languages of Europe, the wife of the U.S. Republican presidential front-runner and the proud mother of a nearly 10-year-old young son.
However Donald Trump's 45-year-old wife traces her roots back to Slovenia's sleepy industrial town of Sevnica.
+10
Then: Melania Trump, then known as Melanija Knavs, is pictured second from right at a friend's birthday party
+10
Now: Former model Melania poses with her husband and Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump
Sevnica residents remember Trump - then named Melanija Knavs - as a tall, skinny, well-behaved girl who was passionate about studying and harboured a dream of having an international fashion career.
'I think I can say Sevnica was too small for her,' recalled Mirjana Jelancic, a childhood friend. 'Even as a child, she dreamed of moving.'
Back then, Slovenia was still part of Communist-run Yugoslavia. Slightly more liberal than other Eastern European dictatorships, Yugoslavia kept open ties with the West and its citizens enjoyed free travel.
Trump's father, Viktor Knavs, was a car dealer while her mother, Amalija, worked in a textile factory. The family lived in an eight-story building right next to their daughter's brightly painted primary school.
Now the headmistress of that school, Jelancic praised her friend as 'an excellent student, very organized, disciplined, with very decent manners.'
+10
A photo showing the industrial landscape of Sevnica, where Melania Trump spent her formative years
+10
Dominated by factory buildings and apartment blocks, Sevnica was still part of Communist-run Yugoslavia during Mrs Trump's childhood
'We would never hear her swear or say anything bad to anyone,' she added.
Trump developed an interest in fashion during her primary school years, at one time wanting to become a fashion designer, her friend said.
'She would make new clothes out of old ones,' Jelancic said.
But Trump's fashion career only became a reality after she moved to the Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, to attend high school.
One day by chance, photographer Stane Jerko spotted the 5-foot 11-inch tall, blue-eyed girl in the street.
'I still remember how tall she was and how beautiful her figure and hair were,' he said, displaying youthful black-and-white photos of Trump.
'There was no smile on her face because she was shy and scared, but I encouraged her to come to the studio.'
Trump's official biography says she started modelling at 16. She took jobs in Milan, Paris and other fashion hubs, becoming proficient in English, German, French and Italian in addition to Slovenian and Serbo-Croatian, which was spoken all across Yugoslavia.
She changed her name to Melania Knauss and settled in New York in 1996. Two years later, she met her future husband at a party in Manhattan where the newly separated Donald Trump asked the model, 24 years his junior, for her telephone number.
She rebuffed him because he was with a date that night, she has said.
But by the next year, they were a couple. Married in January 2005, the Trumps had their son Barron a little over a year later.
+10
Friends of the young Melanija Knavs, second from right, said Sevnica was 'too small' for the aspiring model
+10
Mrs Trump's family lived in an eight-story building right next to their daughter's brightly painted primary school
Before the birth, a very pregnant Melania was photographed for Vogue magazine in a gold bikini on the steps of her husband's private jet.
Up until recently, Trump has kept a low profile in her husband's presidential bid. Her first campaign turn came in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, in November, as the candidate called his family on stage during a rally.
'Isn't he the best?' she asked the crowd in heavily accented English. 'He will be the best president ever. We love you!'
As his supporters roared, her 69-year-old husband gave her a kiss and could be heard saying: 'Thank you, honey. Very nice.'
In an interview Wednesday on MSNBC, she happily noted her husband's success on the campaign trail - 'it's amazing what's going on' - and said she fell in love with him for his mind.
'Amazing mind and very smart. Very charming. Great energy. We have a great relationship,' she said. 'I don't want to change him, and he doesn't want to change me.'
Asked about his controversial comments about illegal immigrants, Melania Trump said her husband 'opened (a) conversation that nobody (else) did.'
Noting that she herself was an immigrant, she said she followed U.S. law exactly, moving from having a work visa, to a green card, to getting her U.S. citizenship.
+10
The young aspiring model's father, Viktor Knavs, was a car dealer while her mother, Amalija, worked in a textile factory
+10
Trump's fashion and modelling career became a reality after she moved to the Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, where she was spotted by chance by photographer Stane Jerko in the street
+10
Donald Trump smiles as wife Melania Trump greets the crowd during a campaign event at the Verizon Center in Manchester, New Hampshire
+10
Big moment: Melania Trump sat down for her first one-on-one interview since husband Donald announced he was running for president eight months ago
I never thought to stay here without papers,' she added.
Jelancic said she was surprised at first to hear that her friend had married a much older man - until she realized that Donald Trump actually resembled Melania's father, Viktor.
'They are both hardworking men,' Jelancic said. 'There must have been some kind of chemistry.'
Still, many townsfolk in Sevnica were not overly impressed with the possibility that the United States may get a Slovenian-born first lady.
Some younger residents, when asked, didn't even know who Melania Trump was.
'What does it mean to me if she is first lady? Who cares?' said resident Ilija Nikic. 'We have more serious issues than Melania.'
Albina Zver, a 50-something resident, dismissed the possibility altogether, saying 'Donald Trump will lose the presidential race.'
Others disagreed. Jerko, the photographer, said 'it would be a big thing for Slovenia if she does become first lady.'
'I wouldn't say she is just Donald Trump's wife,' Jerko said. 'She has something special. I know she is very clever and skilled.'
- Donald Trump's third wife Melania traces her roots to Sevnica, Slovenia
- Industrial town's landscape is dominated by smoke and factory buildings
- Then known as Melanija Knavs, she grew up in Communist-run Yugoslavia
- Her family lived in an eight-story apartment block in the middle of town
- Childhood friends recount how town 'was too small' for the aspiring model
Overlooked by Communist-era apartment blocks and ever-smoking factory chimneys, the Slovenian home town of the third wife of Donald Trump is a far cry from the luxurious surroundings more familiar to a potential First Lady.
But Melania Trump has seen more of the world than most people - a journey propelled by her own big dreams concocted as a young girl growing up under Communism.
Now she is a glamorous former model swathed in couture, a woman familiar with the capitals and the languages of Europe, the wife of the U.S. Republican presidential front-runner and the proud mother of a nearly 10-year-old young son.
However Donald Trump's 45-year-old wife traces her roots back to Slovenia's sleepy industrial town of Sevnica.
- SHARE PICTURE
+10
Then: Melania Trump, then known as Melanija Knavs, is pictured second from right at a friend's birthday party
+10
Now: Former model Melania poses with her husband and Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump
Sevnica residents remember Trump - then named Melanija Knavs - as a tall, skinny, well-behaved girl who was passionate about studying and harboured a dream of having an international fashion career.
'I think I can say Sevnica was too small for her,' recalled Mirjana Jelancic, a childhood friend. 'Even as a child, she dreamed of moving.'
Back then, Slovenia was still part of Communist-run Yugoslavia. Slightly more liberal than other Eastern European dictatorships, Yugoslavia kept open ties with the West and its citizens enjoyed free travel.
Trump's father, Viktor Knavs, was a car dealer while her mother, Amalija, worked in a textile factory. The family lived in an eight-story building right next to their daughter's brightly painted primary school.
Now the headmistress of that school, Jelancic praised her friend as 'an excellent student, very organized, disciplined, with very decent manners.'
+10
A photo showing the industrial landscape of Sevnica, where Melania Trump spent her formative years
+10
Dominated by factory buildings and apartment blocks, Sevnica was still part of Communist-run Yugoslavia during Mrs Trump's childhood
'We would never hear her swear or say anything bad to anyone,' she added.
Trump developed an interest in fashion during her primary school years, at one time wanting to become a fashion designer, her friend said.
'She would make new clothes out of old ones,' Jelancic said.
But Trump's fashion career only became a reality after she moved to the Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, to attend high school.
One day by chance, photographer Stane Jerko spotted the 5-foot 11-inch tall, blue-eyed girl in the street.
'I still remember how tall she was and how beautiful her figure and hair were,' he said, displaying youthful black-and-white photos of Trump.
'There was no smile on her face because she was shy and scared, but I encouraged her to come to the studio.'
Trump's official biography says she started modelling at 16. She took jobs in Milan, Paris and other fashion hubs, becoming proficient in English, German, French and Italian in addition to Slovenian and Serbo-Croatian, which was spoken all across Yugoslavia.
She changed her name to Melania Knauss and settled in New York in 1996. Two years later, she met her future husband at a party in Manhattan where the newly separated Donald Trump asked the model, 24 years his junior, for her telephone number.
She rebuffed him because he was with a date that night, she has said.
But by the next year, they were a couple. Married in January 2005, the Trumps had their son Barron a little over a year later.
+10
Friends of the young Melanija Knavs, second from right, said Sevnica was 'too small' for the aspiring model
- SHARE PICTURE
+10
Mrs Trump's family lived in an eight-story building right next to their daughter's brightly painted primary school
Before the birth, a very pregnant Melania was photographed for Vogue magazine in a gold bikini on the steps of her husband's private jet.
Up until recently, Trump has kept a low profile in her husband's presidential bid. Her first campaign turn came in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, in November, as the candidate called his family on stage during a rally.
'Isn't he the best?' she asked the crowd in heavily accented English. 'He will be the best president ever. We love you!'
As his supporters roared, her 69-year-old husband gave her a kiss and could be heard saying: 'Thank you, honey. Very nice.'
In an interview Wednesday on MSNBC, she happily noted her husband's success on the campaign trail - 'it's amazing what's going on' - and said she fell in love with him for his mind.
'Amazing mind and very smart. Very charming. Great energy. We have a great relationship,' she said. 'I don't want to change him, and he doesn't want to change me.'
Asked about his controversial comments about illegal immigrants, Melania Trump said her husband 'opened (a) conversation that nobody (else) did.'
Noting that she herself was an immigrant, she said she followed U.S. law exactly, moving from having a work visa, to a green card, to getting her U.S. citizenship.
+10
The young aspiring model's father, Viktor Knavs, was a car dealer while her mother, Amalija, worked in a textile factory
+10
Trump's fashion and modelling career became a reality after she moved to the Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, where she was spotted by chance by photographer Stane Jerko in the street
+10
Donald Trump smiles as wife Melania Trump greets the crowd during a campaign event at the Verizon Center in Manchester, New Hampshire
- SHARE PICTURE
+10
Big moment: Melania Trump sat down for her first one-on-one interview since husband Donald announced he was running for president eight months ago
I never thought to stay here without papers,' she added.
Jelancic said she was surprised at first to hear that her friend had married a much older man - until she realized that Donald Trump actually resembled Melania's father, Viktor.
'They are both hardworking men,' Jelancic said. 'There must have been some kind of chemistry.'
Still, many townsfolk in Sevnica were not overly impressed with the possibility that the United States may get a Slovenian-born first lady.
Some younger residents, when asked, didn't even know who Melania Trump was.
'What does it mean to me if she is first lady? Who cares?' said resident Ilija Nikic. 'We have more serious issues than Melania.'
Albina Zver, a 50-something resident, dismissed the possibility altogether, saying 'Donald Trump will lose the presidential race.'
Others disagreed. Jerko, the photographer, said 'it would be a big thing for Slovenia if she does become first lady.'
'I wouldn't say she is just Donald Trump's wife,' Jerko said. 'She has something special. I know she is very clever and skilled.'
