brewers7, first of all I appreciate all the positive comments.
Thank you for that info regarding lines being adjusted because of one game.
This is very valuable info to me.
But, I never said the line would be Utah -14. It was Pete Rose Jr. because he thought the game was in Utah. I actually guessed pretty close at Utah -7.
I did say if they got smoked, then it might be -10. You are saying that there wil never be such a line differential unless injuries play a part. I agree with you, that was a little much, but it was more of a reaction to Pete saying -14.
But, my point is that betting against Atlanta at the right time, and now is the right time, and I'll tell you why:
Utah lost their last game.
Atlanta's last game vs Indy was tied with 4 minutes left in the 4th. Utah knows this and will play hard, not play like they know they can't lose to Atlanta. I see a 15 point win for Utah.
Now, anything is possible in the NBA, so I look ahead at Atlanta's next 2 games.
They play @NY. Hopefully NY loses tonight against Houston.
Then Miami.
I just can't see them covering these 3 games.
Personally, I think Utah smokes them Tomorrow, and there will be no need for a double down against them vs NY.
t1t, thanks for the boost of confidence. I am not in any means, nor will I ever say that I am a great capper. I went through all the teams in the first 1/2 of the NBA season last year, and that is where I built my system from.
"Vegas" is the greatest handicapper, not us. I don't make 10% juice on my plays they do.
BETTING IS A PROBABILITY GAME!!
Let me explain;
The probability of winning 1 game in any given night is 50%. (+juice if you lose).
Do all the handicapping you want, the probability does not change.
Also remember, a spread is their to make the game even.
Now think about it;
If you flip a coin 10 times, you could get 8 heads and one tail.
In betting that is 8 wins and 2 loses. 80%, Pretty good.
Then you flip the coin 90 more times, and get 60 heads and 30 tails.
So now you have 68 wins and 32 loses. 68%. Still pretty good.
If you keep flipping the coin, say 10, 000 times, you would end up pretty close to 5,000 heads and 5,000 tails. 50%. Now pay juice on 5,000 loses.
That's a lot of money.
I'm not saying that handicapping is not important, because I do think it is crucial. I just think that I (and hopefully the forum) can find spots where a team can not win 3 in a row or can not lose 3 in a row.
The probability is much higher.
Hope this makes sence.
As for my picks, I usually put them up early because I work more night shifts then days.
Bye for now.
Thank you for that info regarding lines being adjusted because of one game.
This is very valuable info to me.
But, I never said the line would be Utah -14. It was Pete Rose Jr. because he thought the game was in Utah. I actually guessed pretty close at Utah -7.
I did say if they got smoked, then it might be -10. You are saying that there wil never be such a line differential unless injuries play a part. I agree with you, that was a little much, but it was more of a reaction to Pete saying -14.
But, my point is that betting against Atlanta at the right time, and now is the right time, and I'll tell you why:
Utah lost their last game.
Atlanta's last game vs Indy was tied with 4 minutes left in the 4th. Utah knows this and will play hard, not play like they know they can't lose to Atlanta. I see a 15 point win for Utah.
Now, anything is possible in the NBA, so I look ahead at Atlanta's next 2 games.
They play @NY. Hopefully NY loses tonight against Houston.
Then Miami.
I just can't see them covering these 3 games.
Personally, I think Utah smokes them Tomorrow, and there will be no need for a double down against them vs NY.
t1t, thanks for the boost of confidence. I am not in any means, nor will I ever say that I am a great capper. I went through all the teams in the first 1/2 of the NBA season last year, and that is where I built my system from.
"Vegas" is the greatest handicapper, not us. I don't make 10% juice on my plays they do.
BETTING IS A PROBABILITY GAME!!
Let me explain;
The probability of winning 1 game in any given night is 50%. (+juice if you lose).
Do all the handicapping you want, the probability does not change.
Also remember, a spread is their to make the game even.
Now think about it;
If you flip a coin 10 times, you could get 8 heads and one tail.
In betting that is 8 wins and 2 loses. 80%, Pretty good.
Then you flip the coin 90 more times, and get 60 heads and 30 tails.
So now you have 68 wins and 32 loses. 68%. Still pretty good.
If you keep flipping the coin, say 10, 000 times, you would end up pretty close to 5,000 heads and 5,000 tails. 50%. Now pay juice on 5,000 loses.
That's a lot of money.
I'm not saying that handicapping is not important, because I do think it is crucial. I just think that I (and hopefully the forum) can find spots where a team can not win 3 in a row or can not lose 3 in a row.
The probability is much higher.
Hope this makes sence.
As for my picks, I usually put them up early because I work more night shifts then days.
Bye for now.