Winning Points
OUTBACK BOWL (Tampa, FL)
Auburn over Northwestern by 4
Yes, many of the usual Big 10 vs. S.E.C. issues are in play here, with Auburn having
an advantage in team speed, and yet another Midwest team having a long layoff
before this one kicks off (Northwestern last played on Nov. 21). But this time
it looks like the line has fully compensated for those issues, perhaps even going a
bit too far. It tells us much about how sex appeal still matters in the marketplace,
because how else can we explain the lack of credit Pat Fitzgerald is getting for his
work with the Wildcats? In each of the last two seasons they have won four games
outright as underdogs, and the count is at 12 over his four campaigns, with one
other game a +12 that went to O.T. before they came up short. He does it with a
team built in his image, a scrappy bunch that lacks intricate tactics or playmakers
but simply keeps plugging hard for the full four quarters. That should be enough
here against an average Auburn defense that will allow for ball control, and when
Mike Kafka is fully healthy (he was 23rd in the nation in total offense), this offense
can dink and dunk with precision. The issue will be playing enough containment
on defense without allowing too many big plays, and that is where the speed and
the layoff become major problems against a Tiger offense that had 12 TD’s of 40
yards or more, bringing excellent run/pass balance.
AUBURN 31-27
GATOR BOWL (Jacksonville, FL)
West Virginia over Florida State by 8
Yes, there is going to be a lot of emotion in play here, with the Gator Bowl going
out of their way to get Bobby Bowden to New Year’s Day for his final game, keeping
it in-state and putting him up against the West Virginia program that he formerly
coached. But is too much of that sentiment slipping into the marketplace in
setting this line so low? It is one thing for a good team to step up and send a coach
out in style, but this is not a good team; in going 6-6 they trailed Jacksonville State
with 0:35 remaining, and there were three other wins by three points. In Christian
Ponder they had an outstanding leader at QB, but there is not a big-time RB to
pick up the slack for his absence, and the defense is simply awful across the board
– 108th against the run, 113th in pass efficiency, and 110th overall. And it is not
as though this is a cohesive situation playing for the same goal, with Jimbo Fisher
already firing four assistant coaches and making some new hires for next season.
There may be some added emotion for the Seminoles at the opening kickoff, but
when it settles into being a football game the same weaknesses that have plagued
them all season can be exposed by a West Virginia offense that can make big plays
both via the arm of Jarrett Brown and the legs of Noel Devine. And needless to say
the Mountaineers bring the much better defense.
WEST VIRGINIA 34-26
CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Orlando, FL)
L.S.U. over Penn State by 3
Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno may not be going out at the same time, but the
fact that both of them get to coach on New Year’s Day smacks of “legacy” recruiting
by the bowls. Which they are entitled to, of course, for the purpose of the gate
and television ratings, and we do not mind as long as it works for our purposes as
well. It does here. A Penn State team that was out-classed vs. Southern Cal in the
Rose Bowl last year brings a thin resume to these proceedings, with the non-conference
schedule seeing them favored by at least -29.5 in every game, and the only
real step-up affairs being home losses to Ohio State and Iowa. Yet they somehow
have been given the favorite’s role vs. a team that will cause them matchup problems.
The issue for the Nittany Lions was a young OL that never developed, with
the ground game reaching 200 yards only once in 11 lined games, and that group
will have problems with an athletic L.S.U. defensive front. For the Tigers the issues
were not talent but consistency, perhaps what we are going to have to expect from
a Les Miles team, though he has beaten the spread by a stunning 122 points in
going 4-0 ATS in his bowl games. The biggest edge of all here might be the battle
for field position, with L.S.U. bringing a punt unit that is 14th in net punting, and
a return unit keyed by Trindon Holliday that led the nation at 18.6. Meanwhile
Penn State was 106th and 107th in those same categories.
L.S.U. 23-20
ROSE BOWL (Pasadena, CA)
Oregon over Ohio State by 1
We have seen Jim Tressel learn a lot from those Ohio State back-to-back bowl disasters
vs. Florida and L.S.U. with the national championship on the line – despite
playing in the physical Big 10, there has been an added emphasis on speed in
recruiting, to better match up in games like this one. We saw that manifested on
the field last year, when the Buckeyes played Texas to the limit in a SU loss, but
ATS cover in the Fiesta Bowl. That still means three BCS bowl losses in a row,
which is part of why we find them in the underdog role here, even though there
may be better overall talent on the roster. But while the speed gap is being narrowed,
there is still that awful scheduling conundrum that has absolutely played a
part in those past defeats. Ohio State will be taking the field for the first time since
November 21st, while Oregon got to extend to that December 3rd showdown vs.
Oregon State that earned the Ducks this spot. That reduces the Buckeyes to a lean
here, instead of calling for the outright win, against a favorite that still may be
more pretty than good. Yes, that Oregon offense can be a thing of beauty, but the
Ducks were 0-3 ATS on the road against bowl opponents, and the only SU win
came in O.T. at Arizona. The underdog brings the much better defense here, and
it is one that has the athleticism to match up to the particular tactics they will face,
but suspensions to a couple of key role players limit this to a lean, rather than the
outright upset projection.
OREGON 24-23.
SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans, LA)
Florida over Cincinnati by 15
Psychological factors play a major role here. For Florida this is the first game without
championship implications since a loss to L.S.U. in game #6 of the 2007 season,
and note that in the only bowl game without the title on the line the last three
seasons the Gators lost outright as an 11-point favorite vs. Michigan. But instead
of an anti-climax, does the final game for Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow actually
mean just as much as if the BCS trophy was on the line? Or does the departure of
Meyer actually send a shock wave through the program that takes the players off
of their game, especially with DC Charlie Strong also off to Louisville? Meanwhile
for the Bearcats there is that notion of being left at the altar after Brian Kelly left
for Notre Dame, a very rare occurrence for a team that is 12-0. And interim coach
Jeff Quinn has already taken the Buffalo job, which can create distractions for him.
Like the Tebow issue, it can also cut both ways – they can come out disappointed
from Kelly’s departure, or can play with a chip on their shoulder to show that they
can win without him. For our purposes lets assume that the emotional issues are
not there, and that it just comes down to football. And if that is the case we have
an underdog that is brilliant in one particular aspect of the game, with the Bearcat
passing attack truly special, but one lacking in too many areas. The Cincinnati
defense struggled throughout the season but absolutely came apart down the
stretch, allowing 146 points and 1,697 yards over the last four games, generating
only two turnovers in 297 snaps. That group will be hard-pressed to make any
stops vs. a Gator offense that can physically bash them at the point of attack, and
one that takes care of the ball so well that the defense will not be given many breaks
to work with. But that is based on football matchups; as we get closer to kickoff
perhaps the other issues will also make themselves more clear.
FLORIDA 38-23.