Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: My *9* Massive Mismatch is on Penn State at 1:00 ET. Penn St had the perfect schedule this year to "run the table," as its toughest two games were home contests with Iowa and Ohio St. However, the Nittany Lions were outscored 45-17 and held to an average of 254.0 YPG of offense in those two games. LSU had a similar lack of success against its best opponents, losing 13-3 at home to Florida, 24-15 at Alabama and 25-23 at Ole Miss (horrible clock management in the final 30 seconds). Also, LSU was hardly impressive in an eight-point win over Washington, a four-point-win over Miss St, an eight-point win over La Tech and a three-point over Arkansas. QB Jefferson has limited a ability and Miles rarely gives him much 'rope.' RB Scott had 1,174 yards (5.4 YPC) last season but before missing the team's last three games, had just 542 YR. Scott broke his collarbone in early November and though he returned to practice Dec. 14 is questionable for this game. LSU enters the game with the nation's 108th-ranked offense, averaging a mere 309.7 YPG. The defense is typically strong (and athletic), ranking 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.0 PPG). Penn St's offense did not get the job done vs Iowa and Ohio St and MUST step up here. RB Royster has had a good (1,104 / 5.9 YPC) but not spectacular season, while despite losing three senior WRs, QB Clark (61.9 % . 2,787 YP / 23-10 ratio) was named the Big Ten's offensive co-MVP. I expect PSU to be able to handle LSU's defense, as the Tigers allowed 293.0 YPG in their 7-1 start but surrendered 393.8 YPG going 2-2 in their last four. Meanwhile, Penn State's defense is ranked 10th nationally against the run (93.9 YPG), eighth overall (277.1 YPG) and has allowed the fourth-fewest points (11.8 PPG). Les Miles is 4-0 SU and ATS at LSU in bowl games (winning by an average of 28.5 PPG) but this year's team does not match up to his previous teams. Paterno looks to cap his 44th year by adding to his record 393 overall victories and 23 postseason wins. I expect he'll get that win led by the experience of senior QB Clark, going up against LSU's 19-year-old QB (Jefferson), who was able to dent Florida's and Alabama's defenses for just 210 passing yards in those two contests.
Good Luck...Larry
REASON FOR PICK: My 8* Daytime Dominator is on Florida St. at 1:00 ET. Bobby Bowden's historic 44-year career as a head coach comes to a close when Florida State meets No. 18 West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Bowden couldn't have a better setting for his last game. The game is being played close to home (Jacksonville) and FSU will face West Va, the school where Bowden coached from 1970-75 (began his career at Samford). Bowden came to FSU in 1976, going bowl-less that first season and also in '78 and '81. He hasn't missed a bowl appearance since that '81 season, as this marks FSU's 28th straight bowl game. I've never been a huge Bowden fan but his accomplishments are staggering. He won national titles in 1993 and 1999, after numerous near-misses. FSU won at least 10 games for 14 consecutive seasons (from 1987-2000), finishing in the AP's final top-five each year (the Seminoles were 152-19-1 in that span). Will FSU "win one for the Gipper?" This year's team has plenty of flaws and will be without its best player, QB Christian Ponder (68.8% / 301.9 YPG passing / 14-7 ratio), who was lost for the season due to a separated shoulder. EJ Manuel has started the last three games (2 TDPs / 6 INTs) but like the team's running game, is erratic. The defense has been awful, allowing 443.5 YPG. However, West Virginia's attack has struggled without QB Pat White. Jarrett Brown did little all season (11 TDs) with just three TD passes coming in his final seven games. He sat out most of the Marshall game and averaged a rather pathetic 153.3 YPG through the air over the team's last six games. The team's best WR is Sanders and while he has 70 catches, he's averaged a pathetic 9.6 YPC. RB Noel Devine (1297 YR on 5.8 YPC, 13 TDs) is said to bre fully recovered from his ankle problems but it's hard to ignore how mediocre he was down the stretch. He topped 100 yards in just ONE of his final five games, gaining 134 yards vs Pitt when he broke an 88-yard TD run. Take away that one play and over his last five games, Devine ran for just 297 yards, averaging 3.4 YPC. West Virginia has a veteran D (20.8 PPG allowed) but I don't believe the West Va offense will take advantage of FSU"s questionable D. Against a better opponent, I wouldn't be on a 6-6 FSU team but I believe West Va is a fraud. Note that the first four 6-6 bowl teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS this postseason (Iowa St and Minn were both 6-6 heading into the Insight Bowl) and I expect FSU to put forth an inspired effort good enough to "upset" an overrated foe. The city of Jacksonville and the Gator Bowl Association has set aside more than three hundred tickets for former Seminole players, who will guide Bowden onto the field one final time. My "bet" is that he will be carried off the field a winner. *8
Good Luck...Larry
REASON FOR PICK: My 10* LEGEND play is on Ohio State at 5:00 ET. Great matchup here. East vs. West. Power vs. Speed. Defense vs. Offense. Both teams deserve to be here. Led by QB Jeremiah Masoli and a potent offense the Ducks recoved from a loss at Boise State in their opener and finished the year on a 10-1 run. They averaged 37.7 points, 32.2 on the road. The Buckeyes didn't score quite as many. They weren't as far behind as you might think though. Ohio State averaged 29.2, 26.8 on the road. Like Masoli, the Buckeyes have a dual threat QB. Terrelle Pryor completed 55.8 percent of his passes for 1,828 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for a team-high 707 yards, adding seven more touchdowns. Its on the other side of the ball that the real advantage lies. The Ducks come in allowing 23.6 points per game. That number climbs to 28 on the road. They allowed 382.6 yards in those games. The Buckeyes come in allowing only 12.2 points and 262.5 yards per game. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State actually played better defense away from home. On the road, they allowed 11.4 points and 261.8 yards. That's nearly 17 points and 120+ yards less that the Buckeyes allowed on the road, than the Ducks. Checking out some stats shows that the Ducks were 2-3 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. That's nothing new for Oregon. The Ducks are just 18-34-3 ATS the last 55 times they were favored in that range. With a great defense every season, the Buckeyes are generally tough in the underdog role. They were underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl last year and easily covered, losing by three vs. Texas. This year, they've been underdogs twice. They covered vs. USC - losing by three in a game they should have won. More recently, they beat Penn State outright. They get it done again here. *10
Good Luck...Larry
<<
