SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS –2 over L.A. Lakers
It’s hard to envision the Lakers going down in four straight and nobody wants to believe it but the Lakers played perhaps the best they could play in the last game and still lost. Old, capped out with vast changes in leadership stirring, the team's faithful is already turning its desperate eyes toward Dwight Howard and Deron Williams and every other young star, hoping they'll make their way to Hollywood to rejuvenate or replace the Lakers' expensive and worn-out parts. They took their foot off the pedal so many times the last few years and still eventually got where they wanted to go and most expected that's what they were doing again. There were times this year they mashed that pedal and remained stuck in neutral. Vying for the best record down the stretch, for instance. Or seeking revenge in March against the Miami Heat for their Christmas Day beatdown. Or fumbling away Game 1 against the Mavericks. The Lakers of old would've thumped the Heat the second time. They would've stolen the West's No. 1 seed from the Spurs. And they would've re-established their superiority in this series by leading wire-to-wire in Game 2 against Dallas. They're old and worn out. It's no more complicated than that. Their heart and desire and remaining ability is why they've fourth-quarter leads in two of their three games against the Mavericks. Their empty tanks are why they haven't had the energy to finish them off and they might just get rolled over today. The Mavericks are so hungry. They have to finish them off here or it’s back to L.A. that could turn the series into an uncomfortable 3-2 lead. They have to play this one like it’s game 7. They can’t give the Lakers any life whatsoever. They can’t play like they did in game six. This is the Mav’s time to show a killer instinct and a big response is the only option. Play: Dallas –2 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Washington +149 over FLORIDA
The Nats have won three straight while the Marlins have dropped three straight. Last season Anibal Sanchez put shoulder problems behind him on way to his best year since '06 debut. However his xERA of 4.55 suggests caution, as does health grade. Sanchez has only lasted 9.1 innings over his last two starts after throwing a complete game April 22. He’s also walked seven and struck out six over that span so perhaps those health concerns are real. We’re seeing a decline in BAA, WHIP, BB’s and even his groundball/flyball profile is tilting the wrong way. Sanchez is someone you should avoid laying anything with right now until he gets right-sided. Livan Hernandez has a baseball IQ that’s off the charts. He doesn’t get rattled and gives his team a chance to win 90% of the time. You keep expecting him to blow up but he doesn’t. In his last two starts at Sun Life Stadium, Hernandez has an ERA of 2.13 and a BAA of .217. Hernandez is not going to dazzle and he’s going to get into jams, but he usually gets out of them and he wins games. Throw in the tag and the combination of a cold pitcher and a Marlins losing streak and that’s all the incentive we need. Play: Washington +149 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +122 over SAN DIEGO
Joe Saunders generated some buzz a few years ago in Anaheim, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in nearly 200 IP while posting a 17-7 record. But the thrill is pretty much gone after the past two ho-hum seasons. Now in Arizona, Saunders is trying to recapture his 2008 form and he hasn’t come close. Chase Field is not going to help anyone, especially a guy that puts the ball on play like Saunders. In two road starts at New York and Chicago, Saunders has an ERA of 2.25 and at this park against this host he could easily thrive. The Padres own the majors worst record and it’s not hard to find the reason why. Here are the batting averages of their eight starters from 1 to 8: .214, .150, .200, .250, .180, .239, .290 and .152. Yesterday they were shut out for the eighth time and on Friday they were issued 10 walks and barely won, 4-3. After a decent start to his tenure in San Diego, Aaron Harang has now lost his last two games at Petco and has allowed five bombs and 12 runs over the span. Bob Barker would have a hard time giving up five HR’s in two games at this venue. An argument could be made that laying juice with the combination of Harang and the Padres offense might just be the worst bet you could make today regardless of the outcome. Play: Arizona +122 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS –2 over L.A. Lakers
It’s hard to envision the Lakers going down in four straight and nobody wants to believe it but the Lakers played perhaps the best they could play in the last game and still lost. Old, capped out with vast changes in leadership stirring, the team's faithful is already turning its desperate eyes toward Dwight Howard and Deron Williams and every other young star, hoping they'll make their way to Hollywood to rejuvenate or replace the Lakers' expensive and worn-out parts. They took their foot off the pedal so many times the last few years and still eventually got where they wanted to go and most expected that's what they were doing again. There were times this year they mashed that pedal and remained stuck in neutral. Vying for the best record down the stretch, for instance. Or seeking revenge in March against the Miami Heat for their Christmas Day beatdown. Or fumbling away Game 1 against the Mavericks. The Lakers of old would've thumped the Heat the second time. They would've stolen the West's No. 1 seed from the Spurs. And they would've re-established their superiority in this series by leading wire-to-wire in Game 2 against Dallas. They're old and worn out. It's no more complicated than that. Their heart and desire and remaining ability is why they've fourth-quarter leads in two of their three games against the Mavericks. Their empty tanks are why they haven't had the energy to finish them off and they might just get rolled over today. The Mavericks are so hungry. They have to finish them off here or it’s back to L.A. that could turn the series into an uncomfortable 3-2 lead. They have to play this one like it’s game 7. They can’t give the Lakers any life whatsoever. They can’t play like they did in game six. This is the Mav’s time to show a killer instinct and a big response is the only option. Play: Dallas –2 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Washington +149 over FLORIDA
The Nats have won three straight while the Marlins have dropped three straight. Last season Anibal Sanchez put shoulder problems behind him on way to his best year since '06 debut. However his xERA of 4.55 suggests caution, as does health grade. Sanchez has only lasted 9.1 innings over his last two starts after throwing a complete game April 22. He’s also walked seven and struck out six over that span so perhaps those health concerns are real. We’re seeing a decline in BAA, WHIP, BB’s and even his groundball/flyball profile is tilting the wrong way. Sanchez is someone you should avoid laying anything with right now until he gets right-sided. Livan Hernandez has a baseball IQ that’s off the charts. He doesn’t get rattled and gives his team a chance to win 90% of the time. You keep expecting him to blow up but he doesn’t. In his last two starts at Sun Life Stadium, Hernandez has an ERA of 2.13 and a BAA of .217. Hernandez is not going to dazzle and he’s going to get into jams, but he usually gets out of them and he wins games. Throw in the tag and the combination of a cold pitcher and a Marlins losing streak and that’s all the incentive we need. Play: Washington +149 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +122 over SAN DIEGO
Joe Saunders generated some buzz a few years ago in Anaheim, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in nearly 200 IP while posting a 17-7 record. But the thrill is pretty much gone after the past two ho-hum seasons. Now in Arizona, Saunders is trying to recapture his 2008 form and he hasn’t come close. Chase Field is not going to help anyone, especially a guy that puts the ball on play like Saunders. In two road starts at New York and Chicago, Saunders has an ERA of 2.25 and at this park against this host he could easily thrive. The Padres own the majors worst record and it’s not hard to find the reason why. Here are the batting averages of their eight starters from 1 to 8: .214, .150, .200, .250, .180, .239, .290 and .152. Yesterday they were shut out for the eighth time and on Friday they were issued 10 walks and barely won, 4-3. After a decent start to his tenure in San Diego, Aaron Harang has now lost his last two games at Petco and has allowed five bombs and 12 runs over the span. Bob Barker would have a hard time giving up five HR’s in two games at this venue. An argument could be made that laying juice with the combination of Harang and the Padres offense might just be the worst bet you could make today regardless of the outcome. Play: Arizona +122 (Risking 2 units).
DAVID MALINSKY
4* SAN DIEGO / ARIZONA UNDER 7.5
We have been picking on Joe Saunders a lot in the early part of this season, noting his lack of confidence in working with the roof open at Chase Field, one of the worst settings in the Major Leagues for his style of pitching. But that ugly 0-2/7.59 performance at home now sets us up for excellent value the other way, as he moves to a ball park that is the best for his style, and a Padre lineup that may well be the best for anybody’s style.
The current Saunders ERA is more than a full run above his career allowance, and in reality it has almost all been about his new “home” mound – on the road it has been a 2.25 allowance through two starts, with only seven Hits allowed over those 12 IP. He will relish the chance to step way down in class against an offense that has been shut out a remarkable eight times already, and held to one or two runs on eight other occasions. That makes it two or less in nearly half (16 of 33) of all games to date.
Meanwhile we also catch Aaron Harang in a prime bounce-back spot here, after he struggled to find his mechanics in the first inning against Pittsburgh in his last outing, getting tagged for two-run homers from Garrett Jones and Chris Snyder, before settling down after that. Harang gets the break of facing the Diamondbacks without Stephen Drew, and that exacerbates issues for a team that was already lacking depth in the middle IF with Willie Bloomquist on the DL. It means a likely start for Josh Wilson at SS, which is fine for the defense behind Saunders, but a huge drop in punch at the plate. And off of last night’s Arizona blowout on this diamond all key bullpen arms are rested and ready, so the latter stages are in good hands.
4* SAN DIEGO / ARIZONA UNDER 7.5
We have been picking on Joe Saunders a lot in the early part of this season, noting his lack of confidence in working with the roof open at Chase Field, one of the worst settings in the Major Leagues for his style of pitching. But that ugly 0-2/7.59 performance at home now sets us up for excellent value the other way, as he moves to a ball park that is the best for his style, and a Padre lineup that may well be the best for anybody’s style.
The current Saunders ERA is more than a full run above his career allowance, and in reality it has almost all been about his new “home” mound – on the road it has been a 2.25 allowance through two starts, with only seven Hits allowed over those 12 IP. He will relish the chance to step way down in class against an offense that has been shut out a remarkable eight times already, and held to one or two runs on eight other occasions. That makes it two or less in nearly half (16 of 33) of all games to date.
Meanwhile we also catch Aaron Harang in a prime bounce-back spot here, after he struggled to find his mechanics in the first inning against Pittsburgh in his last outing, getting tagged for two-run homers from Garrett Jones and Chris Snyder, before settling down after that. Harang gets the break of facing the Diamondbacks without Stephen Drew, and that exacerbates issues for a team that was already lacking depth in the middle IF with Willie Bloomquist on the DL. It means a likely start for Josh Wilson at SS, which is fine for the defense behind Saunders, but a huge drop in punch at the plate. And off of last night’s Arizona blowout on this diamond all key bullpen arms are rested and ready, so the latter stages are in good hands.
GC MLB Play
Sunday NBA Playoff Total Of the Year has 18-1 Totals system + 92% MLB Afternoon totals system. NBA Cashed big with Boston and MLB Remains hot. Free MLB Totals system below.
On Sunday the MLB Bonus Play is on the Over in the Arizona at San Diego game. Rotation numbers 911/912 at 4:05 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has cashed 10 of 12 times with an average 11 runs per game. Arizona has gone over in 4 of 5 games as a road dog from +100 to +125. They have played over in 9 of 11 day games, while averaging 5 runs per game. In the Series 12 of the last 18 have played over between these 2 here in San Diego. Joe Saunders goes for Arizona. In his starts vs The Padres 3 of 4 have flown over. He has a 5.09 era over his last 3 starts. The Padres have A. Harang on the mound today and he has been terrible over his last few starts with a 7.41 era. Look for this one to go over the total. On Sunday I have the 18-1 NBA Playoff Total of the Year and a Solid 92% Totals Play in MLB. NBA Cashed big with the Celtics and Bases remains hot. For the Bonus Play take the over 7 runs in the Arizona at San Diego game.
O/U: 10-2-0 (3.5 rpg)
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Grounders Fly Balls Team left on base
Team: 6.6 10.2 0.67 3.9 5.1 10.3 8.5 7.0
Opp: 4.4
Sunday NBA Playoff Total Of the Year has 18-1 Totals system + 92% MLB Afternoon totals system. NBA Cashed big with Boston and MLB Remains hot. Free MLB Totals system below.
On Sunday the MLB Bonus Play is on the Over in the Arizona at San Diego game. Rotation numbers 911/912 at 4:05 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has cashed 10 of 12 times with an average 11 runs per game. Arizona has gone over in 4 of 5 games as a road dog from +100 to +125. They have played over in 9 of 11 day games, while averaging 5 runs per game. In the Series 12 of the last 18 have played over between these 2 here in San Diego. Joe Saunders goes for Arizona. In his starts vs The Padres 3 of 4 have flown over. He has a 5.09 era over his last 3 starts. The Padres have A. Harang on the mound today and he has been terrible over his last few starts with a 7.41 era. Look for this one to go over the total. On Sunday I have the 18-1 NBA Playoff Total of the Year and a Solid 92% Totals Play in MLB. NBA Cashed big with the Celtics and Bases remains hot. For the Bonus Play take the over 7 runs in the Arizona at San Diego game.
O/U: 10-2-0 (3.5 rpg)
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Grounders Fly Balls Team left on base
Team: 6.6 10.2 0.67 3.9 5.1 10.3 8.5 7.0
Opp: 4.4
