Handicapping College Football 101

[YourAllAmerican]

Regression to the mean is an excellent handicapping tool, especially in the NFL. Teams there tend to perform closer to their own long-term norm, so when one teams spikes dramatically above or below, it's a big flag begging for a closer look at the next betting opportunities.

There are wilder swings in the college game because of the disparity of talent between the best and worst teams (and between any given team's best and worst players) and the rapid turnover of players, so it's perhaps not quite as valuable, but it's still a tool worth using. Watching a team's ATS margin and comparing it to their typical ATS margin range should be something a serious capper adds to their list.

In the pro game I put a lot of stock in that particular handicapping angle.

 

[Conan]

That's cool GS.

So next time I pick UCLA to win a game, I'll just call it regression to the mean.

 

[GoSooners]

Regression to the mean is an excellent handicapping tool, especially in the NFL. Teams there tend to perform closer to their own long-term norm, so when one teams spikes dramatically above or below, it's a big flag begging for a closer look at the next betting opportunities.

There are wilder swings in the college game because of the disparity of talent between the best and worst teams (and between any given team's best and worst players) and the rapid turnover of players, so it's perhaps not quite as valuable, but it's still a tool worth using. Watching a team's ATS margin and comparing it to their typical ATS margin range should be something a serious capper adds to their list.

In the pro game I put a lot of stock in that particular handicapping angle.

I also think Regression To The Mean is a great handicapping tool. The only real problem I see in using it in college football is that with just a 12 game season you only have a short time to use it. Sometimes you're ready to bet a team that you think is just about to regress to the mean. But then the season ends or the QB gets hurt or something and you never get the chance to use it. I would say it's a much better tool in pro football or basketball. But it CAN be used for college. And this season by about the 5th or 6th week I'll start looking around for angles using this tool. Wild Bill knows more about this system than anybody. He's even said he might write a book about it someday. He said there is a lot of money to be made out there in using it. He said on average he spends about 30 minutes looking at the game, and then another 30 minutes shopping around for the best line on it. This has been a very profitable way of betting for him for years. And I'm sure he's refined his system since the several years ago that this thread came out.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

It's definitely more valuable -- or least easier to spot the value -- in the NFL. You can look at long, multi-year stats there and know it's unlikely there have been dramatic changes in the team.

College teams change so quickly and, like you mentioned, there's often so much reliance on a single very talented player.

If Wild Bill specifically talked about using Regression to the Mean for college football, I'll have to look up that thread. I'd be interested in reading through it.

 

[GoSooners]

It's definitely more valuable -- or least easier to spot the value -- in the NFL. You can look at long, multi-year stats there and know it's unlikely there have been dramatic changes in the team.

College teams change so quickly and, like you mentioned, there's often so much reliance on a single very talented player.

If Wild Bill specifically talked about using Regression to the Mean for college football, I'll have to look up that thread. I'd be interested in reading through it.

I'll try to find it again for you. I know I quoted cappers like Prodigy, Wild Bill and Gyno almost verbatim from what I wrote down that day from that thread. I don't know if anything was added to it later. But you can read about what those 3 had to say just themselves and come out a winner if you follow their steps. Personally, I take in a little something from every good capper on this board. It's trying to remember everything that people say is the problem. That's why I write down the aspects of capping that I either find helpful or at least something interesting that i haven't heard before..

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I think this is the thread, and it merits a good look from all:

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=428032

Some good posters that we don't see on the forum much, if at all, chimed in. WildBill was a good one. It seemed like Gyno joined the site specifically to be a smartass, then learned there is actually good information here and has been one of the really good posters ever since. Prodigy used to catch a lot of shit from people, but I always thought he made some excellent contributions.