Montreal/Saskatchewan: Montreal by 6, o/u 59: This one's hard. On one hand we have one very classic fade team this year in the Alouettes, who have yet to cover a game and we're here at week 7. On the other we have my favorite fade team of the past few weeks in the Riders, who right now are one of the worst teams in the CFL. I think we're getting a nice number on the Alouettes from what we would have gotten if these same teams hooked up in week 1, and probably a better number than we would get if these same teams hooked up in week 15. That being said, a play on Montreal is probably going to happen, though it doesn't thrill me. 59 is a lot of points to reach in the o/u, but the way Montreal's been playing of late, it wouldn't surprise me to see the total go over in a bit of a sucker line.
Likely play: Montreal (-6) for a small wager, possibly Saskatchewan under team total
BC/Edmonton, BC by 3.5-4 and rising, o/u 55 and rising: Ludicrous over/under set here IMO. I was looking for this game to be at 60... 55 is awfully generous, and the quick bettors at Pinnacle agree. Line went from o55+100 to o55-115 very quickly. Unlike Scott, I think that Ricky Ray can keep this one close... very close. In fact, I think this is the type of game that Edmonton comes out an reigns as the supreme team in the Western Conference. I like getting 3.5 in this situation, but will wait to see if I can get a much better number later. Eskies offense isn't the problem right now, it's the defense. Defense is atrocious right now. Can BC possibly drop 40 in this one? I wouldn't call it a reach by any means. I think we can have another AFL score in this one.
Likely play: (already on) over 55 for a large play, Edmonton +points for a medium play, and BC over team total for a medium play in what will hopefully be another huge BC game for me
Ottawa/Hamilton, Renegades favored by 3, o/u 54: Ach, another sticky game. People are probably gonna jump the Renegades in this one, and to be honest with you, that's probably the right "betting" side to take in this game. But from a logical standpoint, this is the game that the Ti-Cats can win outright. This team went 9-8-1 last year and on paper, really got better at a lot of spots, most notably adding Brazell to help Danny Mac out... you see how well that's worked this year. Under the theory that this Hamilton team is still a possible contender with some fire, I'm gonna be on the Ti-Cats and the short number this week. No real opinion on the o/u right now, though Kerry Joseph and the Renegades offense has been moving of late.
Likely play: Hamilton +short points for a small play, possibly Hamilton over the team total if they can settle on a QB
Winnepeg/Calgary, Stamps by 4, o/u 52: I think Scott and I are both on the right sides of this one. Stamps are for real. I've been saying that for 3 weeks now. This team can play when Henry Burris gets going. This is gonna be that team that comes out of nowhere and pulls some massive upset possibly next week against BC again. That being said, I love the spot of the Stamps this week. Winnepeg on a short week, Calgary on a long week. Winnepeg showed some true colors against Toronto once again, showing that they're still really not that great. They really got killed by Toronto and were fortunate to keep the game close and get a ridiculous back door cover at the end. This team showed zero heart whatsoever at the end of the Toronto game, and I think that's translating over to a Calgary romp. I'm hitting this game from all angles possible.
Likely play: (already on) Calgary -4, will play Calgary team total over and Winnepeg team total under, as well as Calgary on all intervals I can find...
So I've got two very large plays this week that can really make or break me for awhile. We'll see what happens...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Likely play: Montreal (-6) for a small wager, possibly Saskatchewan under team total
BC/Edmonton, BC by 3.5-4 and rising, o/u 55 and rising: Ludicrous over/under set here IMO. I was looking for this game to be at 60... 55 is awfully generous, and the quick bettors at Pinnacle agree. Line went from o55+100 to o55-115 very quickly. Unlike Scott, I think that Ricky Ray can keep this one close... very close. In fact, I think this is the type of game that Edmonton comes out an reigns as the supreme team in the Western Conference. I like getting 3.5 in this situation, but will wait to see if I can get a much better number later. Eskies offense isn't the problem right now, it's the defense. Defense is atrocious right now. Can BC possibly drop 40 in this one? I wouldn't call it a reach by any means. I think we can have another AFL score in this one.
Likely play: (already on) over 55 for a large play, Edmonton +points for a medium play, and BC over team total for a medium play in what will hopefully be another huge BC game for me
Ottawa/Hamilton, Renegades favored by 3, o/u 54: Ach, another sticky game. People are probably gonna jump the Renegades in this one, and to be honest with you, that's probably the right "betting" side to take in this game. But from a logical standpoint, this is the game that the Ti-Cats can win outright. This team went 9-8-1 last year and on paper, really got better at a lot of spots, most notably adding Brazell to help Danny Mac out... you see how well that's worked this year. Under the theory that this Hamilton team is still a possible contender with some fire, I'm gonna be on the Ti-Cats and the short number this week. No real opinion on the o/u right now, though Kerry Joseph and the Renegades offense has been moving of late.
Likely play: Hamilton +short points for a small play, possibly Hamilton over the team total if they can settle on a QB
Winnepeg/Calgary, Stamps by 4, o/u 52: I think Scott and I are both on the right sides of this one. Stamps are for real. I've been saying that for 3 weeks now. This team can play when Henry Burris gets going. This is gonna be that team that comes out of nowhere and pulls some massive upset possibly next week against BC again. That being said, I love the spot of the Stamps this week. Winnepeg on a short week, Calgary on a long week. Winnepeg showed some true colors against Toronto once again, showing that they're still really not that great. They really got killed by Toronto and were fortunate to keep the game close and get a ridiculous back door cover at the end. This team showed zero heart whatsoever at the end of the Toronto game, and I think that's translating over to a Calgary romp. I'm hitting this game from all angles possible.
Likely play: (already on) Calgary -4, will play Calgary team total over and Winnepeg team total under, as well as Calgary on all intervals I can find...
So I've got two very large plays this week that can really make or break me for awhile. We'll see what happens...
--AFLGuru:toast:
scott w said:
Winnepeg's offense played like shit yesterday against a tired as all hell Argos team... I'm not convinced they reach 17 in this one against the Stamps, meaning you're banking on a lot of Calgary points... which I think is gonna happen... so you're in luck... lol
Lee is definitely trotting out as the QB against Miami barring an injury at this point. Sexton's career is over. Weatherford is going to be a backup unless Lee sucks it up. FSU won't go two quarterbacks again. FSU's offensive line is very young. Missing Cromartie in the secondary will hurt. But that being said, seeing how close this series is, taking the 3 points and home turf for FSU is probably a great call. Even if you only say HFA is 3 points, Miami isn't 6 points better than FSU (but the Doak had better be worth more than 3 points in bettors terms). I think this is the year Florida State finally cracks Miami in a very very ugly game, but I'm not going to bet this game either way. Better thoughts of mine are the CFB room under the thread stating that I should bet on VTech to win the ACC or I'm stupid... might wanna check there too. Don't confuse me for a college football capper though. You might get a read from me on an FSU or UCF game, but that's about it. I'll chime in many different places to the people I respect on this forum, as I believe I could be a very good college football capper. But I'm certainly gonna let the experts take over in college football and NFL season who have been doing this much longer than I.
guru,
pinnacle has game 1 lines up under props.
Miami just steamed to -4.5. FSU opened -3.5. The FSU "troubles" angle is so overblown. I never thought it would get to FSU +3 but it did. Figured I'd keep letting them bet into it and see how high it could go. Plus +4.5 seems ridiculous to me. I just grabbed it, cant wait anymore.
I also smell an FSU victory here. Basically mirror image teams right now FSU -2 or -3 seems about right due to home field. FSU +4.5 is silly. $200 limit though.
Also I was as keyed up as anyone to grab FSU-Miami under if they opened at 42 or something but EVERYONE AND THEIR MOTHER seems to know these two teams have stifiling defenses and nuthin but questions on offense. Total opened 33.5 and I grabbed the over. Had to at 33.5 Its up to 36.5 now.
You ought to grab FSU +4.5 at pinny, I have to believe once the limits are raised and real money starts coming in, this +4.5 on FSU will not last.
I personally think +3 is very bettable.
pinnacle has game 1 lines up under props.
Miami just steamed to -4.5. FSU opened -3.5. The FSU "troubles" angle is so overblown. I never thought it would get to FSU +3 but it did. Figured I'd keep letting them bet into it and see how high it could go. Plus +4.5 seems ridiculous to me. I just grabbed it, cant wait anymore.
I also smell an FSU victory here. Basically mirror image teams right now FSU -2 or -3 seems about right due to home field. FSU +4.5 is silly. $200 limit though.
Also I was as keyed up as anyone to grab FSU-Miami under if they opened at 42 or something but EVERYONE AND THEIR MOTHER seems to know these two teams have stifiling defenses and nuthin but questions on offense. Total opened 33.5 and I grabbed the over. Had to at 33.5 Its up to 36.5 now.
You ought to grab FSU +4.5 at pinny, I have to believe once the limits are raised and real money starts coming in, this +4.5 on FSU will not last.
I personally think +3 is very bettable.
