Hopefully this is the last week of calling this an experiment...
Here are my initial thoughts on the week 6 matchups.
Thursday: Toronto @ Montreal (-6) o/u 53.5... I think this game is gonna be ugly. I really do. Anthony Calvillo returns the troops home to take on an Argos team that has, like the Alouettes, been less than impressive this season. Montreal has shown signs of greatness this year, basically in streaks of halves and quarters. The 4th quarter against Winnipeg was great... the first two were horrible (and really the defense played like crap in the 4th quarter too...). 1st 3 quarters against Hamilton in week 1... great... 4th quarter sucked. 3 quarters in Ottawa don't need to be rehashed... But let's face it. This team is still very very good, and despite slips to the Bombers and Gades, this team will still very likely be a Grey Cup contender in 3 and a half more months. Argos have also been a mixed bag this season, showing greatness in the 2nd half against the Rough Riders, but really getting outplayed by BC twice this season. There's no doubt that the defense of the Argos is their strength, as they haven't ticked 30 yet in 4 games, but I don't think it's gonna be enough to keep them inside of this number against a very angry Alouettes team due to bust out with a dominant performance.
Likely game selection: Montreal -6 for a medium play
Friday: Riders (-5.5) hosting Ottawa o/u 55.5. Riders exposed in a big way against Calgary last week, but this is a prime spot for them to come back in style. Ottawa surprisingly will have a chance to take over 2nd place in the East with a victory, but are coming off of a game where they really were beaten soundly by Edmonton. Yes, the 4th quarter comeback was a nice story, but they were never in the game in terms of winning. Ottawa's travels away from home have sucked this year, getting worn out in the 2nd half against BC, and getting killed by the Eskies in week 1. If the Riders want to compete this year in a very difficult West, they need this game badly... and after getting routed last week, I think this is a big morale booster for Neelon Green and the Riders to pick on Ottawa's crappy defense....
Likely game selections: Saskatchewan (-5.5) for a large play, and possibly Over 55.5 for a smaller play
Friday: BC (-10.5) hosting Calgary o/u 53.... ALREADY dropped 2.5 units on over 53 on this game. Probably going to drop more as the week goes by. I really really like the spot of Calgary once again this week. Something finally clicked for the Stamps offense this past week, simply annihilating the Rough Riders. Now, by no means do I expect the Stamps to drop 51 again this week, but I think they could very very easily drop 28-30 on a BC team who's defense, IMO has underachieved a tad, though the teams' record remains in tact at a perfect 4-0. Very simple here: BC is scoring 30. There's no doubt about that. This bet is basically Calgary to get to at least 21, which I think they'll do quite easily. But in terms of the line in this one... Look out... I'm smelling it again. I think this is a dangerous dangerous Calgary team with a lot of momentum and could possibly pull off a large large upset in Lion Country Friday night... But not as confident in this than the over... Will be a large play on this game as a whole.
Likely game selections: Stampeder (+10.5) for a medium play and Over 53 for a very large play... will also likely play Calgary over the total of points for a smaller play.
Saturday: Edmonton (-13.5) vs. Hamilton o/u 53... Really haven't developed much of a read on this game. Hamilton's pretty poor all around, but like I said in the BC game, they're continually throwing me curveballs this season. But in actuality, this team is 0-4 and one of the worst in the game... And with Ottawa two games clear of the Ti-Cats for 3rd in the East, things are not looking good for Hamilton. I can see this team taking a dump down the stretch very easily, and after the last home performance against the Bombers, I can see Ricky Ray putting on a show again for the home crowd, but I'm not completely sold on a cover...
Likely game selection: Edmonton over the team total of an estimated 33.
Thoughts appreciated as always.
First play of the week as stated before...
Calgary @ BC over 53 (2.5 units -110)
Here are my initial thoughts on the week 6 matchups.
Thursday: Toronto @ Montreal (-6) o/u 53.5... I think this game is gonna be ugly. I really do. Anthony Calvillo returns the troops home to take on an Argos team that has, like the Alouettes, been less than impressive this season. Montreal has shown signs of greatness this year, basically in streaks of halves and quarters. The 4th quarter against Winnipeg was great... the first two were horrible (and really the defense played like crap in the 4th quarter too...). 1st 3 quarters against Hamilton in week 1... great... 4th quarter sucked. 3 quarters in Ottawa don't need to be rehashed... But let's face it. This team is still very very good, and despite slips to the Bombers and Gades, this team will still very likely be a Grey Cup contender in 3 and a half more months. Argos have also been a mixed bag this season, showing greatness in the 2nd half against the Rough Riders, but really getting outplayed by BC twice this season. There's no doubt that the defense of the Argos is their strength, as they haven't ticked 30 yet in 4 games, but I don't think it's gonna be enough to keep them inside of this number against a very angry Alouettes team due to bust out with a dominant performance.
Likely game selection: Montreal -6 for a medium play
Friday: Riders (-5.5) hosting Ottawa o/u 55.5. Riders exposed in a big way against Calgary last week, but this is a prime spot for them to come back in style. Ottawa surprisingly will have a chance to take over 2nd place in the East with a victory, but are coming off of a game where they really were beaten soundly by Edmonton. Yes, the 4th quarter comeback was a nice story, but they were never in the game in terms of winning. Ottawa's travels away from home have sucked this year, getting worn out in the 2nd half against BC, and getting killed by the Eskies in week 1. If the Riders want to compete this year in a very difficult West, they need this game badly... and after getting routed last week, I think this is a big morale booster for Neelon Green and the Riders to pick on Ottawa's crappy defense....
Likely game selections: Saskatchewan (-5.5) for a large play, and possibly Over 55.5 for a smaller play
Friday: BC (-10.5) hosting Calgary o/u 53.... ALREADY dropped 2.5 units on over 53 on this game. Probably going to drop more as the week goes by. I really really like the spot of Calgary once again this week. Something finally clicked for the Stamps offense this past week, simply annihilating the Rough Riders. Now, by no means do I expect the Stamps to drop 51 again this week, but I think they could very very easily drop 28-30 on a BC team who's defense, IMO has underachieved a tad, though the teams' record remains in tact at a perfect 4-0. Very simple here: BC is scoring 30. There's no doubt about that. This bet is basically Calgary to get to at least 21, which I think they'll do quite easily. But in terms of the line in this one... Look out... I'm smelling it again. I think this is a dangerous dangerous Calgary team with a lot of momentum and could possibly pull off a large large upset in Lion Country Friday night... But not as confident in this than the over... Will be a large play on this game as a whole.
Likely game selections: Stampeder (+10.5) for a medium play and Over 53 for a very large play... will also likely play Calgary over the total of points for a smaller play.
Saturday: Edmonton (-13.5) vs. Hamilton o/u 53... Really haven't developed much of a read on this game. Hamilton's pretty poor all around, but like I said in the BC game, they're continually throwing me curveballs this season. But in actuality, this team is 0-4 and one of the worst in the game... And with Ottawa two games clear of the Ti-Cats for 3rd in the East, things are not looking good for Hamilton. I can see this team taking a dump down the stretch very easily, and after the last home performance against the Bombers, I can see Ricky Ray putting on a show again for the home crowd, but I'm not completely sold on a cover...
Likely game selection: Edmonton over the team total of an estimated 33.
Thoughts appreciated as always.
First play of the week as stated before...
Calgary @ BC over 53 (2.5 units -110)
