Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 5

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Hey all... I've got a bit of a strong lean on Calgary this week. This team just hasn't found a way to get it done all season, but I think that the Rough Riders aren't quite as good as their mark suggests at this point, especially since they are riding on a lot of injuries at the current moment. Calgary is better than this Hamilton team, especially in Calgary. +4.5 seems awfully generous on this game.

Winnepeg is gonna get a lot of hype on the 11 points offered to Montreal, but the Alouettes have had their share of scares this season and know that this is one that can't let stay very close for very long. I look for this line to drop to the 10 range, where I will gladly take the Alouettes to put up more points than the Eskimos did last week. Huge wake up call for both teams puts the Bombers in a bad spot against an Alouette team who still remembers that game at Ottawa for certain.

Edmonton -5.5... Again, people all over Ottawa. Yes, this team pulled the massive upset against the Alou's a few weeks back and looked real good this week against Calgary, but does anyone think this team is really contending for the Grey Cup this year? I'd think not. Ricky Ray had his excuse me game for awhile against Winnepeg, and I think that the Eskimos are coming out steaming and hungry to get one over with quickly, especially with Ottawa on a short week of preparation and without a bunch of offensive linemen. I'll lay the 5.5 in this one I believe.

Really don't know what to think of this BC/Hamilton game. There's no doubt in my mind that Hamilton is better than their record suggests. No doubt. I'm not saying they're upsetting BC here, but this could be the sort of game that Danny Mac keeps close. Perhaps better than taking the Ti-Cats and the points, to take the over 52.5 in this one, as there's no doubt that BC can score... so if Danny Mac can put 20 on the board, that should be enough, one would like to believe to cover the over. Either way, I think Hamilton can keep this one close, and perhaps 9 is a bit generous based on their recent run of games... but BC in my eyes hasn't been dominantly impressive despite their record and they might be prime for the upset this week.

Scott and gang? Feedback?
 

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I have already bet OTT +6 and MON-WIN under 54 -120. I think OTT has the offense to stay close enough, and EDM just does not look too great to me. OTT will remember the spanking from week one. Should be fairly close and I'll take a home team with a good offense getting 6.

WIN under is an automatic. Not only have they not scored an offensive TD in two weeks, they haven't ALLOWED one either. After the SAS game in week one their totals have been 33, 36, and 26. Total is dropping rapidly; glad I got 54 even at -120.

Thinking about another teaser on the last two since I can't really come up with a regular play, maybe BC -3 combined with SAS-CAL over 43. Waiting to see if the numbers will drop some at OLY. I cannot take HAM due to no offense. They just cannot score, and Brazzell is screaming about not getting the ball. Can't take SAS this week, as they seem to collapse in the last 5 minutes on the road. But, the CAL defense scared me last week, as OTT ran and passed all over them.
 

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I took Edmonton at -5 and have a 3 team teaser with Montreal -4/BC -2/Edm +2. I may end up playing straight games on Montreal and B.C. but haven't decided yet.. Saskatchewan / Calgary is too tough to call right now.. The Green Riders will be very pumped up for this game after QB Burris left them last year for Calgary... so needless to say their gonna be fired up... there is some bad blood there after that move..
 

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Henry Burris was fired up for Calgary's first game of the year (at home to Toronto in the second week), but wound up with two fumbles and two sacks in the game.

Also, early suggestions are that RB Kenton Keith, WR Karston Bailey, DL Davis and DB Mitchell could be back for this game. Also, some significance has to be given to getting Travis Moore on the roster to replace Matt Dominguez. He may be getting up in years, but he is still a go-to receiver.
 

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Gotta say I really like Edmonton, Montreal, and Calgary this week... but in that BC game I'm still a bit up in the air. Probably gonna end up with over, but I've got til the end of the weekend to make the call on it. Probably gonna pull the trigger on the Stamps tonight.
 

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Jeff,, not sure if you misread my post but I'm saying the Saskatchewan Roughriders will be pumped up for that game (not Burris) due to the departure of their QB,, they'll wanna make him pay
 

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another thing I like about the Edmonton pick,,, don't forget Ottawa played Saturday night and are playing on 4 days rest,, not a lot of prep time there..
 

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Ottawa announcers were crying about the prospect of the game against Calgary being postponed until Sunday and having to play Edmonton on Thursday... I'm just liking this game from many angles this week and will probably make it one of my biggest plays of the season.
 

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living in OTTAWA here, I also, TRULY TRULY, love Edmonton in this game....

FWIW, be careful, B Byrde (who is known to be very very sharp in the CFL) is on the renegades.....

probably his play the reason, the line went from + 6 to + 5.5.
 

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Hope you guys don't mind if I join in.

Renegades have been impressive ever since that 4th quarter against the Als. And Edmonton killed me on that last second Mtl FG. But I still think the Eskimos are too good and Ottawa is playing over their head. I'll take Edm 1st half and game with the spread.

Scott, I'll follow you on the Win total. Although it's down to 51.5, I like it.

BlueWolf
 

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BlueWolf-- The more the merrier. Welcome aboard.

I appreciate all of the comments, but I don't see Ricky Ray not torching this Ottawa secondary today... Perhaps I'm shooting myself for this one, but I'm gonna make the biggest play of the year thus far on the Eskimos and hope it doesn't bite me...

Edmonton (-5.5) @ Ottawa (4 units -104)
Edmonton (ml) @ Ottawa 1st half (2 units -150)
Edmonton (ml) @ Ottawa 1st quarter (1 unit -123)

I think because I dropped about 9 units worth of cash on this game that I'm totally screwed, but I just can't see Ricky Ray taking a dump again this week, on the road or not. This is the same Ottawa team that was down 23 against Montreal in the 4th quarter just 3 weeks ago, and was an 11.5 point dog to them. Edmonton isn't 6 points worse than Montreal is... Hell, they're probably 2-3 points BETTER than Montreal is. I just think this one's becoming a track meet very early, and that Kerry Joseph isn't keeping up with the guns of Ray and the Eskimos. This Eskimo defense is nasty, and totally manhandled Ottawa the first time around this season, 41-16.

Even looking at the Ottawa schedule... who have they beaten? Yes, the miraculous comeback on the Alouettes... Yeah, they beat Calgary, who's sub-par in this league. But against the big guys, albeit on the road, they've been beaten very badly by Edmonton, and pretty badly by BC. Plus, that Calgary game was just 5 nights ago....

As for the Eskimos, if one thinks that Ricky Ray is overlooking this game like he did the Winnipeg game, that's pretty absurd... Ray turned the ball over 5 times against the Bombers, something that against any other team, will put you behind probably 20 points. But when push came to shove, the big plays were still made in the game (even though Winnipeg's defense and officiaiting helped a bunch), and the Eskimos left victorious. The loss at Montreal was a "great" loss, as they really dominated the game on every aspect except for Ezra Landry, and soundly took care of the Bombers on the road. Yes, Ottawa has become a very difficult place to play football, but this is the game that should knocking the Renegades back down to size.

As I said before this season, I can live life watching other people and can live life following other people, but I can't live life fearing other people... Even sharp's aren't right more than 60% of the time. And from where I'm coming from, Pinnacle's line opened at -5.5 +104 to -5.5 -104... seems to be going the opposite direction of the "sharp" play for them, even though I know that several other books posted 6 when Pinnacle posted 5.5 +104.

Best of luck tonight. Here's to hoping the Eskimos pull their heads out of their asses in this one and remember that they're an elite team in the CFL...

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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GL on the plays tonight gang, 2 quality QB's going at it, will Ott be able to contain EDM and their D-line on 4 days rest? I'm looking for a shootout tonight so played a small amount on the Over. Hope you pick up those 9 units GURU.
 

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You're probably right Sharky... part of my intent on this one had Edmonton scoring 4 offensive TDs at least against a depleted Ottawa squad. I think either way I'll be loading up again on the Eskimos in the 2nd half unless something catastrophic happens, but teams on 4 days rest in any brand of football, college, pro, or in this case, CFL, don't do very well, especially when they're outmatched in the game.
 

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Two more for tonight based on Sharky's figurings... I'm gonna shoot myself for this one later on... I can just tell right now I'm gonna shoot myself...

Edmonton over 31.5 (1 unit -115)
Edmonton over 16 1st half (1 unit -105)

Obviously team totals available at 5Dimes... I was looking for something like this earlier today before I placed bets on this game, and probably would have taken this heavier than the game... but now that I've found it, I don't want to tread to hard on it. Again, I just have the sick feeling I've put too much money into this game... But I'm really confident that the Eskimos take care of business tonight.
 

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Anxious to see how Ott plays, maybe they falter in the 2nd half but EDM put a late rub in TD in game 1, wonder if it's added incentive? Ray is a stud QB and is only getting better after coming back from the NFL. He's got a great arm and throw one of the best long balls of any QB in awhile, I'll be watching the Oline action all night as this will be a huge swing either side tonight. I guess it usually is in any game but even more for Ott tonight. Unfortunately I don't see it on American TV tonight, the dish has been so good to me so far but not tonight.:sad3:
 

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I know I don't have the game tonight... radio for me... Hey Sharky... let's not turn your train around because the game's not on the dish... As for me... I'm due for a massive game. Hope this is the one.

Of note is that Ottawa is going to be forced to plug in a recently activated offensive lineman of sorts to make up for the two injuries in last week's game... Is it possible for this line to be worse now than when the Eskimos dropped Joseph 7 times in week 1?
 

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Special teams starting off very well for the Eskimos except for a missed 35 yard FG.... Learning very quickly that special teams are an incredibly large part of a CFL game.
 

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Ottawa on the backup kicker... and as Ottawa's announcers just called that missed FG... "That wasn't even close... This is professional football. You've gotta be able to stroke those through"

1-1 game... sorry to hear the start of this over after some dud possessions in scoring range...
 

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Also on Bet365... but I'm not daring to live bet this game...

BIG TD for the Eskimos here right at the end of the 1st quarter. Barring a special teams return for a TD, I'll bank the first quarter for Edmonton.
 

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