I watched the entire WIN-EDM game. EDM had second and goal at the two in the first minutes of the game and then fumbled on third down. Later, they drop a pass in the EZ. Next, they return a punt for a TD that is called back on a penalty. They later get 1st and goal at the WIN 5 and get nothing. Near the end of the game Tucker catches a bomb and is going for a TD and is tripped from behind and fumbles into the EZ, which WIN recovers. SO MANY chances to score. I'm pretty sure than WIN did not get inside the EDM 20 all night. WIN had the only TD and still lost. Hard to say how they will react next week. After the defense carries them all game and scores the only TD, it was that defense that let them down on 3rd and 10, giving EDM a bomb that led to the last-play FG.
And that chance lasted one play... way to go Hill... way to go... Couldn't ask for more chances than Toronto got in this one and they still pissed it away.
Winnepeg (+19) @ Edmonton W (+1.5 units)
Winnepeg @ Edmonton under 55 W (+1 unit)
Edmonton (-11) vs. Winnepeg 2nd half L (-0.52 units)
Toronto (+7) @ BC L (-2.5 units)
Toronto (ml) @ BC L (-0.5 units)
Toronto (+4) @ BC L (1st half) (-1.01 units)
Toronto (ml) @ BC L (1st half) (-0.5 units)
This week thus far... 2-5 (-2.51 units)
ATS: 6-3 (+7.30 units)
Totals: 4-1 (+4.47 units)
Moneylines: 3-4 (+0.20 units)
1st half: 3-5 (-2.75 units)
2nd half: 5-2 (+8.87 units)
Overall: 19-10 (+18.09 units)
Winnepeg (+19) @ Edmonton W (+1.5 units)
Winnepeg @ Edmonton under 55 W (+1 unit)
Edmonton (-11) vs. Winnepeg 2nd half L (-0.52 units)
Toronto (+7) @ BC L (-2.5 units)
Toronto (ml) @ BC L (-0.5 units)
Toronto (+4) @ BC L (1st half) (-1.01 units)
Toronto (ml) @ BC L (1st half) (-0.5 units)
This week thus far... 2-5 (-2.51 units)
ATS: 6-3 (+7.30 units)
Totals: 4-1 (+4.47 units)
Moneylines: 3-4 (+0.20 units)
1st half: 3-5 (-2.75 units)
2nd half: 5-2 (+8.87 units)
Overall: 19-10 (+18.09 units)
I'm thrilled with a split tonight. . .if you had told me that BC would be up 15-1 with :30 to go in the first half and be at their own 20 or so, and that there would be NO scoring in the entire fourth quarter, I would have figured on no chance in hell of getting that game over 51.
Got CAL-OTT under 54 tomorrow.
Got CAL-OTT under 54 tomorrow.
Hey Scott... lemme ask ya... Obviously we saw a big upset when Ottawa came back against Montreal, but aside from that, has there been a team that's been a 3.5 or greater favorite at home lose outright yet this season? Doesn't seem like it... might be a trend worth watching later on in the season.
I'll say this about tonight's action. This Toronto team ain't half bad. If John Avery can get back to a form that the Argos have become accustomed to, this can be a very deadly team. Toronto's secondary is extremely good (though lapses tonight), the line produces a lot of pressure (though not so much tonight, especially in the 1st half), the WR corps are extremely good, Allen is obviously a very experienced QB... if the line can protect him, this team doesn't seem to be that far off from the Grey Cup team of last year. That being said, I don't necessarily feel that this BC team is that much, if at all better than Toronto, and given the chance to bet this game again, I'd probably make the same play. Toronto was one mental lapse from being in a spot to win the game at the end with a FG instead of having to throw after RJ Soward dropped the ball deep in BC territory.
Also, I'm still sold that this Winnepeg team is bad and that they were blessed with good fortune today. Yes, the defense gave a mammoth effort, but they still let Ricky Ray drive down their guts on several instances. This game could have very easily been 17-0 in the 1st quarter if not for a Ricky Ray fumble and a short single (or maybe it was a short FG... don't remember the sequence of events off hand). Perhaps the Eskimos weren't ready for this one, still wondering how they blew the game against the Alouettes a week ago. When this team gets a bit more healthy, the Bombers will be a bigger threat to the league, but they're by no means a contender, and by no means will keep this game this close in Winnepeg later in the season. But this line was inflated by probably a full TD because of Winnepeg's offense ineptitude, added to the situation of Edmonton coming off of the bad loss at Montreal. At maybe 14, the play on this game would have been on the Eskimos, and I would have felt at that point I was on the right side of the game. Under was certainly the proper call on the game... But I feel fortunate to have escaped the first half of this game, and know that a couple plays and Edmonton not only doesn't have to worry about winning late, but likely covers the game handly, much like the Rough Riders did to the Bombers earlier in the season on the Bombers only other road trip to date.
Also, I'm still sold that this Winnepeg team is bad and that they were blessed with good fortune today. Yes, the defense gave a mammoth effort, but they still let Ricky Ray drive down their guts on several instances. This game could have very easily been 17-0 in the 1st quarter if not for a Ricky Ray fumble and a short single (or maybe it was a short FG... don't remember the sequence of events off hand). Perhaps the Eskimos weren't ready for this one, still wondering how they blew the game against the Alouettes a week ago. When this team gets a bit more healthy, the Bombers will be a bigger threat to the league, but they're by no means a contender, and by no means will keep this game this close in Winnepeg later in the season. But this line was inflated by probably a full TD because of Winnepeg's offense ineptitude, added to the situation of Edmonton coming off of the bad loss at Montreal. At maybe 14, the play on this game would have been on the Eskimos, and I would have felt at that point I was on the right side of the game. Under was certainly the proper call on the game... But I feel fortunate to have escaped the first half of this game, and know that a couple plays and Edmonton not only doesn't have to worry about winning late, but likely covers the game handly, much like the Rough Riders did to the Bombers earlier in the season on the Bombers only other road trip to date.
scott w said:
Yeah, looking back at the schedule, there hasn't been a single team that's been a favorite, let alone a 3.5 point favorite lose a game outright this year... incredible stat to date. Equally amazing is that games like Toronto vs. the Riders and Montreal against the Eskimos are winning by just enough to win, but not enough to cover 3....
Alright, contrary to the stats provided yesterday would suggest, I think that Calgary's offense is due to wake up in this one. Winnepeg's defense isn't as porous as originally figured, and I think Burris is going to have a field day on Ottawa's crappy secondary. This, of course will be opened up by the running attack of Joffery Reynolds, and if he can average 5+ ypc, Ottawa will be forced to put extra guys in the box. Defensive line for Ottawa won't likely get nearly as much pressure as they have in recent weeks on the quarterback, and I'm reliant that Joseph's offense line still hasn't figured out how to keep their QB off his back.
I'll take my shots that we have a road dog win for the first time outright in this one...
Calgary (ml) @ Ottawa (1.5 units +136)
I'll take my shots that we have a road dog win for the first time outright in this one...
Calgary (ml) @ Ottawa (1.5 units +136)
Despite how bad Calgary's defense looked in the first half, there's gotta be huge value on the Stampeders in the 2nd half. Kai Ellis is out, thus Ottawa's D line, already one player short for the game, is further depleted. They also only have one backup lineman, and have already had one O-lineman go down... don't know whether he returned or not. Regardless, fatigue looked to be setting in at the end of the first half for the Ottawa defense, and I think that Calgary's defense will be a bit better in the 2nd half. Too much value to ignore in this play...
Calgary (-2) @ Ottawa 2nd half (2 units -105)
Calgary (-2) @ Ottawa 2nd half (2 units -105)
