Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 4

[AFLGuru]

ATS: 5-2 (+8.30 units)
Totals: 3-1 (+3.47 units)
Moneylines: 3-3 (+0.70 units)
1st half: 3-3 (-1.24 units)
2nd half: 5-1 (+9.37 units)
Overall: 19-10 (+20.60 units)

Alright, if I get up to 25 units at any point this season, I'll stop calling it an experiment. But I still think what goes up is due to go down shortly.

I don't see anything that is an absolute grab at the moment, but here are my thoughts...

I know I'm getting an earful for this one, but 19.5 is a ton for Edmonton to cover. Perhaps I am going to get suckered into a very large line, but even Winnepeg has to cover at some point. Now by no means do they have a chance in this game, but even if they give up 40 in this one, 21 still gets the cover done... Now I know 21 seems impossible for Winnepeg, which paired with Edmonton having a longer week than usual to stew over the mess they blew in Montreal could cause a long long night in Edmonton for the Bombers. Don't ask me what it is I see in Edmonton that shows some sort of potential weakness, but I see a team that could be in for a closer game than expected in this wacky league, and especially closer than this number seems to allow. Just asking the Bombers not to get blown out on this one... But just like the rest of these leans, they're merely leans and not plays at this point... awaiting some feedback.

Toronto + the TD. BC is a bitch of a place to go into, but even the Argos should be able to score some points in this one. With a defensive minded team like Toronto is, I think a TD is generous in this one. Regardless it should be a great battle between potent offense and powerful defense. Momentum also must be on the Argos side after the comeback against the Riders... speaking of which...

Gimme the Ti-Cats this week in Saskatchewan and the 9 points. Coming off of a bye week has given the Ti-Cats plenty of time to prepare for this one. The Riders definitely let an important game slip away, and I could DEFINITELY see them losing this game *gasp!* outright. Hamilton has been a tricky team thus far, and just like I thought coming into the season, will be a tricky team for the bigger names to avoid down the stretch as this team learns how to adapt together. Granted... Danny Mac is still quarterbacking this team, but he looked a lot better off the bench after being replaced two weeks ago, and perhaps will carry momentum into Saskatchewan, where the Riders look vulnerable after the collapse and without Dominguez.

No real feel for the Ottawa/Calgary game of yet. I suppose the insinuated line here is that this teams are virtually even, but even still, I don't think I can bring myself to betting on Calgary in this one. Seems to be a tricky spot where the Gades can get back into the win column very easily.

 

[scottw]

We think alike on CAL-OTT. Not sure what I will do with that. Maybe an OTT ML play later on.

I have a teaser with EDM -13 and SAS -2. I am going to keep betting against these teams that cannot score. WIN can't, and HAM offensively has been just as bad, going their first 116 minutes this year without an offensive TD. SAS should now have learned their lesson about only playing 56 minutes of a 60 minute game, and at home should take care of the Hammies. EDM will be royally pissed off and should keep WIN out of the EZ unless they allow more kick returns for scores. WIN has played one road game this year and got killed. EDM has played one home game and did some killing. I don't see EDM letting off the throttle here.

Also got TOR-BC over 51. Last game hit 47 between them a few weeks back, and would have gone over if that TOR receiver had made the catch in the back of the EZ. Both defenses got exposed a little last week. SAS ran all over TOR, and OTT had success vs. BC. 51 is not that high, and weather won't be a problem.

 

[corporeal]

Ottawa is most likely playing Kai (forget his last name, he's a DE) instead of Collier (who had 5 sacks against BC). Both have minor injuries, so it's coming down to whoever feels healthier. Just throwing that out there...
I'd love to see Ottawa win another one, especially at home, but I figure on Calgary keeping it tight, so even if they lose I'm pretty damn confident on CAL covering.

 

[scottw]

CAL offense worries me. They did NOTHING against Loseipeg. And only 16 at home vs. Toronto. But, OTT is no bargain on D. Seems like a battle of the strengths (CAL D vs. OTT O) and weaknesses (CAL O vs. OTT D). Tough call for me, but I'll make a play on it somehow. Would like to see the total come down a point or two for an over.

 

[AFLGuru]

Definitely can tell I'm a loner on the Bombers this week... Definitely... Hey, these guys aren't going 0-18 ATS... I'll probably look real dumb after this one, but Losipeg can't play much worse than they did weeks one and two.

 

[scottw]

. . .and three. 15, 8, and 15 points so far. 38 points in three games just screams FADE. WIN may have been better off if EDM had won at MON last week instead of losing like that. I can't see EDM coming out flat or giving WIN any breaks after that loss last week.

 

[AFLGuru]

Grand Rapids just screams FADE too... and how many times did they bite us in the tush this year... You thought Nashville screamed fade for the longest time as well, and though they started 1-6 ATS, they closed out above .500 (I believe it was 8-7-1, including a run of like 5 straight covers). Winnepeg will cover someone eventually, and this seems prime for the taking with a number so high... Edmonton could very easily be winning this game something like 36-12 at the very end with a backdoor cover coming on a late Winnepeg TD with all of Edmonton's stiffs playing. They showed signs of life last week, and I hope it continues. Just don't get killed... That's my moto for the week... just don't get killed... (with them and the Ti-Cats)

 

[scottw]

I would love to see EDM up 36-12 and have WIN score the last TD. Hell, give them a 2 pt convert too for a 36-20 final. I have it teased to -13! Worked last week with BC.

I know what happened with NAS and GR, and I'm not saying that WIN can't turn it around, but Glenn is still out and Martin has been horrible. I would at least like to see SOME offense out of them. They had one good offensive play all night last week, and DROPPED that one.

Yes, as the lines get bigger, they will cover, and maybe this week. But the old addage of "don't ask a bad team to do something good for you" still rings true. Let them get Glenn back and a few more games under their belt and maybe things will change. But I've been against them every game this year and cashed each time, and as a wise man (Phil Steele) once said, "You can win many times on a streak, but you'll only lose once."

 

[corporeal]

I would love to see EDM up 36-12 and have WIN score the last TD. Hell, give them a 2 pt convert too for a 36-20 final. I have it teased to -13! Worked last week with BC.

that would be a bad thing

 

[scottw]

Yeah Corp, that would put the game over! Still, with WIN averaging under 13 points a game, the side you have to worry about beating you sure ain't them.

 

[scottw]

Took CAL-OTT under 54. Thought about it, and OTT has played high scoring games against good offenses in EDM and BC and an average one in TOR. CAL is struggling on O, but has a good D. The side is just too difficult for me.

 

[JeffH]

Definitely can tell I'm a loner on the Bombers this week... Definitely... Hey, these guys aren't going 0-18 ATS... I'll probably look real dumb after this one, but Losipeg can't play much worse than they did weeks one and two.

The last time there was a line that high in the CFL was with the 1996 Ottawa Roughriders, who were on the other side of -22 and -19 in two games at Toronto and -20 at Calgary. They covered two of three, not covering one of the Toronto games.

Other than the 1996 Ottawa Roghriders, no opening line has been higher than -16 in the last 10 years.

 

[AFLGuru]

Very interesting to say the least here... Doesn't work like the AFL does. Typically the bigger the favorite in the AFL, the more likely they cover. The more I see this, the more I believe that the Bombers are covering this one, but perhaps I'm getting suckered in to such a large number.

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright, here's what I've got this week...

Winnepeg (+19) @ Edmonton (1.5 units -105)
Winnepeg @ Edmonton under 55 (1 unit -112)

Toronto (+7) @ BC (2.5 units +100)
Toronto (ml) @ BC (0.5 units +252)
Toronto (+4) @ BC (1st half) (1 unit -101)
Toronto (ml) @ BC (1st half) (0.5 units +185)

As I've said earlier in the week, the Bombers are simply put, DUE to put up a good game. The team looked a lot more functional in the 2nd half against Calgary, and I'd like to think some of that will hold over tonight against Edmonton. Winnepeg will likely go into this game thinking they have absolutely nothing to lose and all to gain, and though I'm very afraid of Edmonton coming out ridiculously pissed off and just obliterating the Bombers, I will play small on Tee Martin to be able to put some points on the board, and for the Bombers D to hold Edmonton under 35...

As for the Toronto game, the addition of Baker back in the lineup will help the offense dramatically. People will make something of the John Avery injury leaving him in Toronto for this road trip, but the rushing attack can't be much worse with the rookie, who's name slips my mind, in the starting lineup tonight. The key in this one to me is BC's line. BC's offensive line has been downright atrocious this season, and if Toronto can get pressure up the gut in this one, I can totally see Toronto stealing this game in BC, a rematch of last season's Grey Cup.

Also played this for Sunday... Hamilton (+9) @ Saskatchewan (1.5 units -108)

 

[AFLGuru]

If I'm seeing this right, Winnepeg has produced absolutely nothing, but the Bombers have picked up a single and it's 4-1 with 12:00 left in the 2nd... hell of a start for me in this one.

 

[AFLGuru]

7-4 Eskimos at the end of 1... EXCELLENT start... Bombers announcers setting the jinx.... "Those of you on the betting line that took the Bombers and the 20 some points should be estatic"

 

[AFLGuru]

Edmonton (-11) vs. Winnepeg 2nd half (0.5 units -105)

Just don't like what I hear from the Bombers in this one... Edmonton's been in the scoring zone WAY too many times for my tastes...

BC just took a 3-0 lead about 3/4 of the way through the first...

 

[AFLGuru]

Toronto in real danger of getting blown away in this one really soon...

Winnepeg still hanging tough, really starting to smell a realistic chance at an upset if the offense can just get a couple plays...

 

[AFLGuru]

Ach, I've had enough of this one.... Safer to go to bed tonight and try again tomorrow than it is listening to BC just destroy the Argos here.... Some incredibly long bomb on 2nd and long with like 15 seconds left in the half for an unnecessary TD after you conceded a safety... 22-1 presumably at the break...

 

[scottw]

Man, if WIN had ANY offense WHATSOEVER, they would be Grey Cup favorites. Awesome defense, great special teams, but they would be better off punting on first down when they have the ball.