Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 2

[AFLGuru]

Know I'm against the other bettor on here, but I think there's a lot of value in backing the Alouettes this week...

Montreal (-10) @ Ottawa (4 units -105): Montreal came off of a game in which they pretty much dominated the Tiger-Cats the entire way. A late pick 6 and a punt return for TD kept the Alous from being 1-0 ATS. In this instance they take on a Ottawa team that put on an absolutely embarassing performance to start off @ Edmonton. Though Ottawa's offense HAS to be better this week than they were last week, 30 points will probably be enough for the Alous to cover this one, and I think they fly past the 30 with flying colors. Alouettes in a romp... HPark... I'm very interested in your write-up on the game, and if I were just a random follower, I would follow him before me...

--AFLGuru

 

[HPark1]

I'm a sucker for home dogs so you may be right here. Fact is if I wasn't such an action junkie I probably wouldn't even bother playing games so early. Keeping my plays small so really not greatly concerned.

I do believe that Ottawa's offense will have a much better outing, especially at home. Fact is they have an excellent running back in Ranek and speedy reciever's to throw to. Joseph looked terrible but I suspect he was rattled by all the hits he took, some caused by his poor pocket awareness. He's got a great arm with decent accuracy. Also has that option of taking off and running with his speed and strength. I rate Ottawa's offense 4th best in the league only behind Edmonton, BC and Montreal.

Ottawa should be able to score 24+ in this contest.

 

[AFLGuru]

Woo! I get to bet against Tee Martin this week? Someone should've told me...

Edmonton (-10) @ Winnepeg (3 units -110)

 

[AFLGuru]

I'm a sucker for home dogs so you may be right here. Fact is if I wasn't such an action junkie I probably wouldn't even bother playing games so early. Keeping my plays small so really not greatly concerned.

I do believe that Ottawa's offense will have a much better outing, especially at home. Fact is they have an excellent running back in Ranek and speedy reciever's to throw to. Joseph looked terrible but I suspect he was rattled by all the hits he took, some caused by his poor pocket awareness. He's got a great arm with decent accuracy. Also has that option of taking off and running with his speed and strength. I rate Ottawa's offense 4th best in the league only behind Edmonton, BC and Montreal.

Ottawa should be able to score 24+ in this contest.

I thought Ottawa to be much better than their performance against Edmonton suggested in terms of talent, and perhaps it will come back and bite me... but the way that Ottawa's offensive line played was atrocious, and with so many injuries on the line, depth is a large issue. That being said, Montreal should be able to get a lot of pressure of Joseph again, and should they do that, it'll be a long night for Ottawa once again. I don't think there's a lack of talent at the skill positions, but the line is just SO bad... Ottawa's defense played a decent game until they just got ridiculously worn out. Could give some problems to Montreal's potent attack... just think it's gonna be too much Alouettes in this one.

 

[HPark1]

Ottawa's defense was the huge question mark. They played a great game but were just on the field for way to long. That is why I'm convinced they can hang with Montreal. I don't think Montreal's offense is as good as it has been in the past. Calvillo is a great QB and makes the offense run but the weapons he currently has are mediocre.

If Ottawa can establish its running game with Ranek then I think they will compete to the end. He is the key. Sets up the deep play action and wears down the defensive line. I'm not convinced Montreal's defense is as good as they appeared against Hamilton. K. Joseph will cause more problems than D. McManus could. They lost key players on that defense, no way they are as good as last year.


You're right about the O-line though. I'm counting on the line to hold up. If they just truly do suck bad then Montreal will win in a romp. I'm in belief they ran into the best defense in the league @ Edmonton.

 

[SunDog]

Cfl

Hamilton is a solid pick at 3 1/2.

 

[scottw]

HAM is the only team that did not score an offensive TD last week. Offense was responsible for 2 FGs. Special teams had 8 and defense had 7, resulting in their 21. SAS defense not much below that of MON. I like the Riders here. They were all over Glenn last week, and McManus is far less mobile, and the SAS secondary has been together for 5 years. I just don't see HAM scoring enough to stay close.

 

[AFLGuru]

I was thinking the same sort of thing Scott... but I think I'm gonna wait to see how things pan out this week before jumping off the deep end with more points to lay.

 

[AFLGuru]

Starting to like the Edmonton pick here more and more the more and more I hear about this game... but then again, the more and more people that are on the Eskimos, the more and more I think I'm gonna be on the wrong side of this one...

 

[tomlv]

Guru-
The worst that can happen is the line goes to 13 or 14 by game time and you can take the other side if you are worried about it.

 

[Vancouverfan]

Sundog,, what do you see in Hamilton this week?? I love the Riders at -3,, this team is solid with a great D and 2 stud running backs.. There only question mark this year is QB and so far Nealon Greene looks like he will fill Burress's shoes very nicely...

 

[scottw]

EDM defense gets it done. 1-0 for the week, 3-1-1 this year.

Got a 7 point teaser tomorrow, MON -3 and TOR +3.5.

 

[AFLGuru]

Love betting against Tee Martin... that newsflash was great. Thanks HPark!

Edmonton (-10) @ Winnepeg W (+3 units)

 

[scottw]

It's gonna be a long year in Loseipeg.

 

[8ate]

guru

nice write-ups and good call on edm

thanks

gl

:drink:

 

[AFLGuru]

8Ate... Thanks for the support... But once again, tread VERY carefully on my plays this season. I'm not convinced that I'm gonna end up in the gutter, but it wouldn't surprise me if I go belly up at some point sooner than later. The longer we go into the season where I've got some positive units to work with, the more likely it is that I keep it that way (I guess that's kinda a "duh" statement, but the fact I'm trying to get across is that the longer we get into the season, the bigger sample set I'll have with statistics in this league... I guess also a "duh" statement... sorry).

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Figured I should come up with a bit better detailed recap thus far, though I won't go as in depth as I do in the AFL (because as I've said before, I keep a lot of those marks for both the board in general and my own personal marks... my CFL notes are not nearly as extensive... yet... I WILL get good at this sport through time and keep probably equally tedious records).

So following last night's victory with the Eskimos embarassing Tee Martin...

ATS: 4-0 (+10.50 units)
Totals: 0-1 (-1.53 units)
Moneylines: 0-1 (-0.50 units)
1st half: 0-0
2nd half: 1-1 (+2.00 units)
Overall: 5-3 (+10.47 units)

With tonight's action to come...

Montreal (-10) @ Ottawa (4 units -105)

Also adding this play, as it wouldn't surprise me if Ottawa got off to a fast start in terms of points, trying to keep up with the high flying Alouettes.

Montreal @ Ottawa over 27.5 1st half (2 units -105)

 

[AFLGuru]

No radio pickup of the game on either website listed, and I'm sure as hell not listening to the game in French... someone provide some updates since live stats aren't working either please...

Thanks-
--AFLGuru

 

[Vancouverfan]

I'm watching it on TSN for now before I head out,, 3-3 five minutes in..

 

[AFLGuru]

Thanks buddy... live scoring is all screwed up... so your help is appreciated while you're around.