Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Playoffs

[AFLGuru]

hahaha, WOW. THAT is really really some game. GRATS on your moneyline!!! Post your pick for the BOWL!! Nice talkin' with ya man.

No doubt in my mind it was gonna be Chicago if they had won... but now I want to go review some things over in my mind about the general Colorado games and the general Georgia games this year.

Georgia's certainly more battle tested, but Colorado has the more talented team. A lot to review... But for now, I'm headed to bed, as I haven't caught up on all of the sleep I missed driving up to Georgia yesterday... I'll see you all on Tuesday when the line comes out.

 

[AFLGuru]

And everyone around here I believe to be correct in their assumption of the Arena Bowl winner. So it looks like there's going to be either a lot of winning tickets, or a lot of losers... probably the winners... So here we go...

Georgia Force (ml) vs. Colorado Crush (5 units -152): I haven't said this very often this season. I really haven't. But I really believe... really do... that this Georgia team is the best TEAM I have seen in the AFL in over 10 years. The last team I remember to look this darn good was the '94 Orlando Predator team that went 14-1 before losing to Arizona in the Arena Bowl. This Georgia team is the most disciplined team in the Arena League in quite some time, and have one of the greatest x's and o's coaches I have ever seen in this game. This Georgia team doesn't do it with talent, they do it with disciplined and intelligence. There's a reason that Matt Nagy sucked before this year but doesn't now, and it has only a little bit to do with Lee, Bergeron, and Jackson... It's because Doug Plank has made his players incredibly smart. I made three comments after coming back from Georgia to some of those close to me.

--I have seen the most talented team in the AFL in the Orlando Predators... get beat...

--I have seen the best coach at work in the AFL

--I have seen the best owner in the AFL (it's not even close... Arthur Blank led the greatest PR campaign the AFL has possibly ever seen to take this team from on the verge of collapse to a champion that puts maybe 15000 in the seats every game).

And I'll make one more comment that ties these three together... We are seeing the next dominant franchise in the AFL. Tampa and Orlando are shells of their former selves... Arizona is set to fold. We've seen the end of the San Jose Sabercats. Now it is the Georgia Force. And their time will begin Sunday by beating a very undisciplined Colorado Crush team the same way that they've stuck in games and won close games all year... by being the smarter team and the team that wants to win the game more.

I'll go a bit further in depth about the individual matchups in this game later on in the week, but I figure I should post my first Arena Bowl XIX bet out there.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Damien Harrell (-1 reception) vs. Troy Bergeron (2 units -108): Harrell is Dutton's emergency receiver, while Bergeron is a lot more of the deep threat. I think -1 is generous here.

YES TD Pass over 39.5 yards (1 unit -108): Percentage play when these two teams hook up, especially the way these teams break tackles in the open field. Wish I could get a novalty on whether Bergeron will have a TD of at least 40 yards... he's probably the dude to do it.

2nd quarter highest scoring quarter (1 unit +213): Arena Bowl history says if it's a close game, it's gonna be the 2nd quarter... if it's a blowout, it'll be the 4th quarter. 4th quarter might be worth a waiver as well, but the 2nd quarter will be my selection.

1st score to be any other score (rot #334) (3 units +109): I think we're stealing this prop. Really do... Yes, the biggest dudes in this game in terms of TDs are probably going to be Bergeron, Jackson, and Harrell... But looking at it in these terms, maybe it's not so bad... We have on our side every FG, every special teams TD, every defensive TD, ever rushing TD, and every TD thrown to the other 3 receivers, or fullbacks, or tight ends on the field. The way Georgia plays defense, it wouldn't surprise me if the first score ended up being a rushing TD for Colorado if they get the ball first because Georgia keeps dragging down WRs when they get beat (an incredibly smart coaching move). Best % prop on the board.

YES Will each team score in every quarter (2 units -140): Hit this at -125 last night... only reason it's not more is because it just looks leary... looks very leary...

Chris Jackson under 2.5 TD receptions (1 unit -106): Too many other options on the field for Georgia, and Jackson isn't #1 in that lineup... first guy Nagy is consistently looking at is Lee... maybe that's because he had Reggie Doster on him most of the day Saturday and not the Glove or Harris, but it seemed like Lee was the receiver of choice, especially near the end zone.

Nagy (-1 completion) vs. Dutton (2 units -108): Georgia will dink and dunk you to death. Dutton wants to let the bombs loose... Georgia is smart enough to take pass interference penalties, cutting down the number of receptions Dutton will have.

Probably a couple more closer to game day, but that's the list at this point... Best of luck!

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[tomlv]

Nagy (-1 completion) vs. Dutton (2 units -108): Georgia will dink and dunk you to death. Dutton wants to let the bombs loose... Georgia is smart enough to take pass interference penalties, cutting down the number of receptions Dutton will have.

Probably a couple more closer to game day, but that's the list at this point... Best of luck!

--AFLGuru:toast:

Interesting Guru. I think that helps the UNDER. Already played some U106.5-107.

 

[scottw]

I played two props before I saw your post Guru. I also took Harrell -1 over Bergeron (or "Bergon" as Pinny had it) and also took Any Other Score besides a TD reception by Bergeron, Jackson, or Harrell to be the first score. Glad we are on the same page.

 

[AFLGuru]

If this game goes over it's because Dutton's receivers aren't being torn down like Orlando's were all game once they got behind Gaines and the rest... but yeah... those are two of the stronger props on the board my friend, and I think this is going to be a very profitable Arena Bowl for us all.

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright ladies and gents, I'm about set to head home for the weekend to watch the game with my old man. Had a great time this season making some money even though we hit a massive rough patch at the end of the regular season. Hopefully we close out with a big day Sunday. Seems like a bunch of us are in agreeance that this game is Georgia's. Anyway, I'd like to thank those of you that gave me a helping hand this year... you all know who you are. Scott, as always, it was a pleasure swapping info and takes on the games. Look forward to it next season. I'll be sure to do a final recap next week at some point, as I probably won't be able to get on Sunday afternoon. Best of luck to everyone here at whatever it is you do, and I'll see you all around other parts of this forum!

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[JohnMolson]

Force in trouble in the 4th..Damn 1st half turnovers might cost them this game:sad3:

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah, of all things... Discipline won the Arena Bowl, and it was Georgia that lacked it... Stupid idiots. However, I will say it was an incredibly profitable Arena Bowl for me despite dropping the 5 units on Georgia (mostly because I picked up 8 and change units on the Colorado to win the Arena Bowl future)... Another stellar record on props. Thanks again to all that helped this year.

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Damien Harrell (-1 reception) vs. Troy Bergeron W (+1.83 units)

YES TD Pass over 39.5 yards W (+0.92 units)

2nd quarter highest scoring quarter L (-1 unit)

1st score to be any other score W (+3.27 units)

YES Will each team score in every quarter W (+1.43 units)

Chris Jackson under 2.5 TD receptions W (+0.94 units)

Nagy (-1 completion) vs. Dutton Push (----)

Added to the two futures' bets from several weeks ago...

Colorado Crush to win Arena Bowl XIX W (+8.96 units)
San Jose Sabercats to win Arena Bowl XIX L (-1.43 units)

So for the postseason... including futures, 11-6 (+10.99 units)

This brings the final recap for the 2005 season to... (Postseason included separately)

Against the opening line: 40-24-2 (62.50%)
Against that same closing line: 37-28-1 (56.92%)

Sides Record: 31-38 (44.93%) (-2.32 units)
Totals Record: 32-17 (65.31%) (+41.25 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 3-4 (-0.23 units)
2nd half: 14-15 (-3.23 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 11-10 (+1.72 units)
Futures:4-2-2 (+4.72 units)
Playoffs: 11-6 (+10.99 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 107-95 (52.97%)
Net: +50.45 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 80-74 (51.95%)

Thanks again for everyone's help this season.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[luap]

Thank you for all your predictions.

It was profitable following you in 2005.

Hope to hear from you in 2006.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Afl......with All Said......you Have Done Well....

I Have Watch And MADE Notes On How You
Master This Sport.....i Can Only Learn And
Try Next Year

Once Again Good Job

Ace

 

[AFLGuru]

Thanks Ace. Much appreciated. No hard feelings from a few months back.

--AFLGuru