Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 4

[AFLGuru]

Brief recap on our bets...

Unless Dutton does something phenominal (like LA coming all the way back), we can probably write him in the loss column... we need 15 completions in the 2nd half, which isn't impossible, but not very probable. Once again, bitten by playing props...

Arizona +6.5 doesn't look as bad as one might think. They're down 9 at the break. They're playing solid defense. I'm not sure if they can win this game, but I think they can stay within the number at hand.

Regarding the under in the Arizona game, obviously 45 at halftime is pretty good. We need 68 points to screw us... Still possible... I don't throw anything out in this league... but it's not very likely.

Then there's Philly... And I've said through most of this game that Stoerner looks better than Graziani, Dallas' line looks better than Philly's line. Dallas is playing better special teams (one FG and what should be 2 forced fumbles on kick returns). Philly is lucky to not be down 10 or 17 in this game. Not impossible to say that they're going to win this game by the necessary 3 points, but it's not looking too good.

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright, we got ourselves an opening drive TD in Arizona. Philly held Dallas, long FG coming.

 

[AFLGuru]

Sorry, they went for it and picked it up... that hurts... this is almost guaranteed a TD for Dallas.

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Guru,

I think the line play is clearly the difference in the Philly game. In regards to the QB's, Graziani did complete 10 out of his last 11. Stoerner has thrown some very ugly balls. This game could still go either way. Philly's D is awful.

 

[AFLGuru]

We knew Philly's D was awful from their first game last year... Stoerner's got himself an arm, that's for sure. Strike to Sippio I believe it was... Dallas by 10.

 

[AFLGuru]

TD NY... stop it guys... 14 points in about 6 minutes... 34-25 New York

 

[AFLGuru]

While I'm now becoming more sold on this Dallas team (though I still believe they make FAR too many mistakes to keep this run going), I'm now very sold that this LA team is going to collapse eventually.. Colorado is up a stop and a half right now. Without Remy Hamilton, this team is sunk right now.

 

[AFLGuru]

Now the game's over... Ryan fumbles for Philly and Dallas is deep inside Philly territory.

 

[AFLGuru]

2 plays, 6 points... rough game for Philly... everyone out there that thinks Graziani is a godsend for a bad team.... they're wrong.... Though this one isn't Graziani's fault, the rest of the parts around him on this team are terrible. Ach... Dallas is going to make the playoffs.

 

[AFLGuru]

Hmm... looks like we might get swept today actually... Arizona is back within 3, but the scoring is coming FAR too quickly. 34-31 with 7 minutes left in the 3rd.

 

[AFLGuru]

Special teams TD for Arz... 37-34... 1 for 6 on PATs though... Philly just got lucky AGAIN... they were stopped on 4th down and picked up a Dallas penalty

 

[AFLGuru]

Okay, so the Arizona TD didn't count I guess for some reason... but New York scored, which is starting to kill us. 40-31 New York, still 4:30 left in the 3rd.

 

[AFLGuru]

Man oh man when it rains it pours... Philly faced another 4th down but finally ran out of luck. Dallas up 17 and the ball... disgusting half... absolutely disgusting.

 

[AFLGuru]

Gametracker is screwing up everything right now... Clay Rush is throwing passes for Colorado? Eh, whatever... Yeah guys, this was one of those "unmentionable" weeks I was talking about where we can't catch breaks and end up getting crushed. What I will say is that Dallas is on the no-bet list. I can't bet their over/unders because of how many penalties they take, and I can't bet on them because the instant I do they'll burn me... but as it's proven by LA and now Dallas, there's some teams I shouldn't bet against...

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright, we need a Good Karma Man sighting in these games... We need some big comebacks and fast.

 

[been_there]

Clay Rush is a great QB, A.K.A George Blanda, before your time...

ArenaFootball had Hunkie Cooper QB 1st Q earlier...
maybe time to start a new business,like Mark Cuban did

 

[been_there]

Do you have a link to that "Karma Guy", my friend needs some

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah... They fixed it... Dutton needs 10 completions in the 4th quarter, which is really really unlikely unless LA forces OT or something.

 

[AFLGuru]

Not a good start Mr. Karma Man... Bonner threw a pick 6 again on the first play in the 4th quarter... 46-31 pending PAT for NY.

 

[AFLGuru]

And Sippio scores again... 58-35 PAT pending... I wish I could say I could watch another game, but they all kinda suck right now.