I still haven't tallied up the recap yet, but I probably should since I'm now two weeks behind. Looking at my week 14 numbers is probably safer anyway... but I made a pretty good time of futures betting, as an Orlando win over New Orleans is something very possible and will give us either a relative push for New Orleans and Orlando futures combined or win Orlando's over and push New Orleans'. Before I play anything, can someone post the Pinny openers from yesterday here?
Here's the scoop on this week...
Colorado/New York is an absolute crap shoot. Colorado needs to win, but not at any expense. The fact that they will be hosting a quarterfinal is probably enough motivation, but the difference between 1 and 2 in the American Conference I don't believe is important. What matters is which team plays San Jose and which gets either Chicago or Vegas... and since we don't know that yet...
LA needs to win, but again, not at a huge price in the American Conference since I think whomever plays San Jose (if they get in) is gonna get beat, ESPECIALLY if it's LA... it's real hard beating the same team 3 times in the same season, especially when it's the defending champs you're going after. Grand Rapids might suck, but who the hell had them winning in Chicago this weekend or against Colorado a couple weeks back?
San Jose: THIS IS YOUR TIME SABERCATS! The Kitties have had EVERYTHING working for them with Chicago and Vegas both going down last week after their embarassment at rival Arizona. But a win Friday night is enough to assure the Kittens they'll be going on to the postseason. The problem is that they're playing the statistically best team in the AFL. I'm not sold that Georgia is the end all of end all teams in the AFL, but they're certainly not stunning across the country in a game that means squat. The Kitties will have to pull out the stops though. Anything less than a W will likely leave them at home, unless Arizona helps them out with a win over depleted Vegas.
Arizona has enjoyed the role of spoiler this season, as the offense finally looks to be clicking again for the Rattlers. They take on Vegas, who has the most outs to get in, as either a San Jose or Chicago loss also puts them in. I can't see betting this game, as if San Jose loses Friday night, I can't see them starting Clint Dolezel, and as we've seen, that makes for some ugly Vegas games.
Chicago takes on Nashville in a game they are probably an appropriate dog in. The Rush have been embarassed the past couple weeks and know that this is their last shot. Hohensee is the best coach of the 3 in the race, and I think that he'll get the guys up in this one and take care of a gritty Nashville team, which isn't giving up until the season is over, even though they are again reduced to the spoilers we thought they were the majority of the season.
Philly/Dallas means squat and I feel sorry for anyone required to watch this game on Sunday...
Tampa travels to Columbus to try to knock off Columbus. Game means a lot to Tampa, but they know if Orlando holds serve at home, they'll be travelling to Georgia regardless of the result. Coach Marcum will be watching the scoreboard, and if he can rest Stafford, he probably will. Columbus is much inferior in this game, but I don't know what Marcum is thinking... if he's got the "kill radar" on like he normally has, Tampa will win this game handlely... but if he's more interested in his team's chances of winning a game in the playoffs, the 2nd half of this game could get real ugly.
Game of the week: New Orleans/Orlando. This is basically a playoff game for these two teams. New Orleans knows if they lose they're out. Orlando knows if they lose, they need Columbus' help to get them in. Though Orlando won't be hosting a game, all worked out very well for them, as the two teams they could be facing in the postseason match up horribly against the Preds. Orlando is the team no one wants to face if healthy, and for the first time since week 11, the Preds will be fielding their best 22 guys on Sunday. With the week off and plenty of time to mill over the scenarios, Coach Gruden knows only one thing... winning this weekend. A win this weekend sends the Preds to New York next week. A loss and they're stuck watching the scoreboard go by on the Tampa game to determine their fate.
What I believe is going to happen? The league is gonna rig it so San Jose and Vegas get in from the American Conference, so they can at least showcase 3 of the conference's elite marketing teams. I don't think they'd care who wins Colorado/Vegas, as either way you get a big name to face San Jose, who I don't think the league wants to see get beaten until the Arena Bowl. As far as the National Conference, I think Orlando holds serve, which makes the Tampa game obsolote. Orlando will travel to New York and Tampa will travel to Georgia, and an upset in either game wouldn't be really surprising. I still think you're gonna see the winner of this Orlando/New Orleans face the winner of Colorado/San Jose in the American Finals for the Arena Bowl...
But I just jumped to a lot of conclusions... Besides, the Preds are always dogs when I go to the game... They're 1-7 SU the last 8 games I've seen in person... And you know I'm gonna be at this one.... I'll throw some picks up here tomorrow, but for the record, this has just been extremely ugly lately...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Here's the scoop on this week...
Colorado/New York is an absolute crap shoot. Colorado needs to win, but not at any expense. The fact that they will be hosting a quarterfinal is probably enough motivation, but the difference between 1 and 2 in the American Conference I don't believe is important. What matters is which team plays San Jose and which gets either Chicago or Vegas... and since we don't know that yet...
LA needs to win, but again, not at a huge price in the American Conference since I think whomever plays San Jose (if they get in) is gonna get beat, ESPECIALLY if it's LA... it's real hard beating the same team 3 times in the same season, especially when it's the defending champs you're going after. Grand Rapids might suck, but who the hell had them winning in Chicago this weekend or against Colorado a couple weeks back?
San Jose: THIS IS YOUR TIME SABERCATS! The Kitties have had EVERYTHING working for them with Chicago and Vegas both going down last week after their embarassment at rival Arizona. But a win Friday night is enough to assure the Kittens they'll be going on to the postseason. The problem is that they're playing the statistically best team in the AFL. I'm not sold that Georgia is the end all of end all teams in the AFL, but they're certainly not stunning across the country in a game that means squat. The Kitties will have to pull out the stops though. Anything less than a W will likely leave them at home, unless Arizona helps them out with a win over depleted Vegas.
Arizona has enjoyed the role of spoiler this season, as the offense finally looks to be clicking again for the Rattlers. They take on Vegas, who has the most outs to get in, as either a San Jose or Chicago loss also puts them in. I can't see betting this game, as if San Jose loses Friday night, I can't see them starting Clint Dolezel, and as we've seen, that makes for some ugly Vegas games.
Chicago takes on Nashville in a game they are probably an appropriate dog in. The Rush have been embarassed the past couple weeks and know that this is their last shot. Hohensee is the best coach of the 3 in the race, and I think that he'll get the guys up in this one and take care of a gritty Nashville team, which isn't giving up until the season is over, even though they are again reduced to the spoilers we thought they were the majority of the season.
Philly/Dallas means squat and I feel sorry for anyone required to watch this game on Sunday...
Tampa travels to Columbus to try to knock off Columbus. Game means a lot to Tampa, but they know if Orlando holds serve at home, they'll be travelling to Georgia regardless of the result. Coach Marcum will be watching the scoreboard, and if he can rest Stafford, he probably will. Columbus is much inferior in this game, but I don't know what Marcum is thinking... if he's got the "kill radar" on like he normally has, Tampa will win this game handlely... but if he's more interested in his team's chances of winning a game in the playoffs, the 2nd half of this game could get real ugly.
Game of the week: New Orleans/Orlando. This is basically a playoff game for these two teams. New Orleans knows if they lose they're out. Orlando knows if they lose, they need Columbus' help to get them in. Though Orlando won't be hosting a game, all worked out very well for them, as the two teams they could be facing in the postseason match up horribly against the Preds. Orlando is the team no one wants to face if healthy, and for the first time since week 11, the Preds will be fielding their best 22 guys on Sunday. With the week off and plenty of time to mill over the scenarios, Coach Gruden knows only one thing... winning this weekend. A win this weekend sends the Preds to New York next week. A loss and they're stuck watching the scoreboard go by on the Tampa game to determine their fate.
What I believe is going to happen? The league is gonna rig it so San Jose and Vegas get in from the American Conference, so they can at least showcase 3 of the conference's elite marketing teams. I don't think they'd care who wins Colorado/Vegas, as either way you get a big name to face San Jose, who I don't think the league wants to see get beaten until the Arena Bowl. As far as the National Conference, I think Orlando holds serve, which makes the Tampa game obsolote. Orlando will travel to New York and Tampa will travel to Georgia, and an upset in either game wouldn't be really surprising. I still think you're gonna see the winner of this Orlando/New Orleans face the winner of Colorado/San Jose in the American Finals for the Arena Bowl...
But I just jumped to a lot of conclusions... Besides, the Preds are always dogs when I go to the game... They're 1-7 SU the last 8 games I've seen in person... And you know I'm gonna be at this one.... I'll throw some picks up here tomorrow, but for the record, this has just been extremely ugly lately...
--AFLGuru:toast:
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