you realize that the only sec team to go winless on the road in conference last yr was pathetic miss st..??
so out of 12 sec teams, last yr 11 won a conference road game.
you're putting auburn in the same class as last yr's miss st team??
i love how all of a sudden "@ Tenn" has become an automatic loss for teams now...
hno:
Texas Tech under 8 is a VERY VERY good, safe bet IMO. This # is set that high purely due to last years team, and that was Tech's best team in their school history, along with their best player in school history, hands down (Crabtree). Tech goes 6-6 at best this year, again, IMO. There's a reason why Leach flew up to Washington to interview for that job on his own dollar following last seasons late season collapse. I think he knows what he's got for the next few years, and it ain't pretty. Taylor Potts (QB) is legit, but no OL to speak of whatsoever.
While we're at it, I love Notre Dame to go over their win total (easy fucking schedule), as well as Texas (easy fucking schedule). GS nailed it though, obviously, by saying if McCoy gets hurt, so does that bet. That can be said by 90% of D-1 teams who start returning QB's, but Texas especially. You can put Baylor, OU, Tech and Ok State in that category as well (if qb gets hurt, so goes the season).
While we're at it, I love Notre Dame to go over their win total (easy fucking schedule), as well as Texas (easy fucking schedule). GS nailed it though, obviously, by saying if McCoy gets hurt, so does that bet. That can be said by 90% of D-1 teams who start returning QB's, but Texas especially. You can put Baylor, OU, Tech and Ok State in that category as well (if qb gets hurt, so goes the season).
JB...If Texas loses to OU, it puts a lot of pressure on this over 10 wins play. There's no room for error with Texas this year. One loss and their out of the BCS title game. The one thing i do like about this bet is I can still win it and Texas could still be left out of the BCS title game with an 11-1 record. Either OU or Okie Lite could completely ruin their season like TT did to them last year..I still think the odds are on Texas side because of their schedule. But getting in the title game and winning it are two different things. The Whornes best chance if they get to the BCS game is Texas vs USC/Ohio St./LSU/Ole Miss. If Florida gets in all bets are off on the Horns. JB...Here's a little something to get you fired up for the season. It brings tears to my Sooners fan eyes. Especially in the parts where OU defeats the Evil Empire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qnb9Et5lVnc
GoSooners, this is in response to your under/10.5 USC at -150 bet. Here's what I would do if I believed that USC was going to be down. Get rid of the under bet at -150 and just bet the Buckeye moneyline when they play each other. My thinking is if USC beats Ohio St, there isn't a prayer they are losing 2 or more games this season. Agree?
you realize that the only sec team to go winless on the road in conference last yr was pathetic miss st..??
so out of 12 sec teams, last yr 11 won a conference road game.
you're putting auburn in the same class as last yr's miss st team??
i love how all of a sudden "@ Tenn" has become an automatic loss for teams now...
All I am saying is that Auburn's chances of winning 8 games and very slim. While they did beat Miss. State on the road last year, I beleive the final score was 3-2. As bad as Tennessee may be this year, I think they are better than last years Miss. State team. Auburn still has no offense to speak of. Actually, Auburn could win this game 3-2.
I understand your thinking, but I'm not going to take a futures play off the board before the season even starts. My bet was basically made with the thinking that USC is going to lose that game at OSU or possibly at Notre Dame, or two in conference. The bottom line is you never can tell what is going to happen during the season. USC beats OSU last year and then loses the next week to an inferior Oregon St. team. Conference games can be the toughest to win because of the familiarity factor that these teams have with USC. And USC usually has at least 2 or 3 close calls every year in the Pac-10. I know we all remember the USC 2007 team losing to Stanford that year and then killing Illinois in the Rose Bowl.. But we shouldn't overlook the fact that they also just barely got by Washington 27-24, Arizona 20-13, lost to Oregon 24-17, and getting by Cal 24-17. With a bad bounce here or there, that season could have turned out much different for USC. With pretty much breaking in a whole new defense, I can see the same 2007 type of season where they are just a bit more vulnerable and win just 9 or 10 games.
I'm adding two more team season win totals:
LSU Over 8.5 wins (+100) **
This team has too much standing talent to go with less than 9 wins two years in a row. I think that despite their tough schedule they win 9 to 10 games this year. They are the second choice (+350) to win the SEC Title.. They were -3 in TO margin last season. A number that I think they'll improve on because they have a better DC this year, along with 14 starters returning (only 12 last season). They should make a jump in TO margin and their defensive numbers will improve. I expect LSU to protect their home field (7 games) beat Washington and MSU on the road, and pull off at least one upset on the road against Bama, Ole Miss or Georgia. My prediction: 10-2.
Clemson Under 8.5 wins (-140) **
A team who went 7-6 last season despite scheduling 2 FCS teams. They have for all practical purposes a first year coach in Swinney (interim HC last season) going up against some of the best HC's in the country this year with Paul Johnson, Gary Patterson, Jim Grobe, Paul O'Brien. Four out of their 5 road games (Miami, NCST, GT, SC) are more than likely going to be losses. Two home games against Florida State and TCU won't be gimmes. More than likely a split there. Only one FCS game instead of two this year. This is a team who was better in 2008 and still couldn't even beat the second best team in the Big 12 North last season Nebraska in their bowl. If they can't win a game like that with what was a better team, i don't see them even getting a sniff of the division title much less the ACC title. Especially with their starting QB, RB and star WR now gone. My prediction: 7-5
NCST to win the ACC Title (+700) **
NCST is in the easier Atlantic Division of the ACC with the worst coaches. With the exception of maybe Jim Grobe, O'Brien rises above all in this division. By process of elimination BC will have a first year coach and third in the last four years. Not a good thing for a BCS conference team in a conference of good veteran coaches. Clemson I've already mentioned why I don't like them. Again a rookie coach who probably won't be able to right the ship with this team if things start going south like last year. Wake I believe loses too many starters on defense. Florida State is my only real concern here. They always have the athletes to win this conference. But since their loss to OU for the NC in 2000 they really haven't been much of a threat to win anything since. It could possibly change this year. But i would rather take my chances with the better coached team who ended the regular season with 4 straight conference wins and has the best QB in the ACC.
LSU Over 8.5 wins (+100) **
This team has too much standing talent to go with less than 9 wins two years in a row. I think that despite their tough schedule they win 9 to 10 games this year. They are the second choice (+350) to win the SEC Title.. They were -3 in TO margin last season. A number that I think they'll improve on because they have a better DC this year, along with 14 starters returning (only 12 last season). They should make a jump in TO margin and their defensive numbers will improve. I expect LSU to protect their home field (7 games) beat Washington and MSU on the road, and pull off at least one upset on the road against Bama, Ole Miss or Georgia. My prediction: 10-2.
Clemson Under 8.5 wins (-140) **
A team who went 7-6 last season despite scheduling 2 FCS teams. They have for all practical purposes a first year coach in Swinney (interim HC last season) going up against some of the best HC's in the country this year with Paul Johnson, Gary Patterson, Jim Grobe, Paul O'Brien. Four out of their 5 road games (Miami, NCST, GT, SC) are more than likely going to be losses. Two home games against Florida State and TCU won't be gimmes. More than likely a split there. Only one FCS game instead of two this year. This is a team who was better in 2008 and still couldn't even beat the second best team in the Big 12 North last season Nebraska in their bowl. If they can't win a game like that with what was a better team, i don't see them even getting a sniff of the division title much less the ACC title. Especially with their starting QB, RB and star WR now gone. My prediction: 7-5
NCST to win the ACC Title (+700) **
NCST is in the easier Atlantic Division of the ACC with the worst coaches. With the exception of maybe Jim Grobe, O'Brien rises above all in this division. By process of elimination BC will have a first year coach and third in the last four years. Not a good thing for a BCS conference team in a conference of good veteran coaches. Clemson I've already mentioned why I don't like them. Again a rookie coach who probably won't be able to right the ship with this team if things start going south like last year. Wake I believe loses too many starters on defense. Florida State is my only real concern here. They always have the athletes to win this conference. But since their loss to OU for the NC in 2000 they really haven't been much of a threat to win anything since. It could possibly change this year. But i would rather take my chances with the better coached team who ended the regular season with 4 straight conference wins and has the best QB in the ACC.
Sooners, like both of your ACC plays that you posted in #28.
IMO Clemson has strong lines and a good change of pace back in Spiller but their QB situation is going to let teams cheat up on the running game and force the passing to beat them. Clemson has decent talent all over but like you said a rookie QB and rookie coach are not a good combination to make a strong run this year. I've got them @ third in the Atlantic and I think 8 wins is the absolute ceiling.
As far as the NCS play I think its a good one as well, though I'm seeing +1000 out there still. The Atlantic is wide open this year with question marks across the board and why not take a shot with a proven commodity at coach and a very explosive offense. Even if Wilson gets hurt the staff and players are saying all the right things about the backup, Mike Glennon. O'Brien has already said that he has faith in the rFr and he will see playing time in the first half against USC on opening night.
GL to you this season, your preseason threads are always filled with great info and are a must-read
IMO Clemson has strong lines and a good change of pace back in Spiller but their QB situation is going to let teams cheat up on the running game and force the passing to beat them. Clemson has decent talent all over but like you said a rookie QB and rookie coach are not a good combination to make a strong run this year. I've got them @ third in the Atlantic and I think 8 wins is the absolute ceiling.
As far as the NCS play I think its a good one as well, though I'm seeing +1000 out there still. The Atlantic is wide open this year with question marks across the board and why not take a shot with a proven commodity at coach and a very explosive offense. Even if Wilson gets hurt the staff and players are saying all the right things about the backup, Mike Glennon. O'Brien has already said that he has faith in the rFr and he will see playing time in the first half against USC on opening night.
GL to you this season, your preseason threads are always filled with great info and are a must-read
Agree that NC St is improved, but imo there is more value with Clemson at same or close odds to win the league. NC St has had alot of injuries in recent years and this summer they've already lost one of their best returning defensive players, linebacker Nate Irving.
ACC is wide open this season among top teams and should have alot of games won by td or less between them.
ACC is wide open this season among top teams and should have alot of games won by td or less between them.
BD....I think maybe what you're overlooking is who NCST has to compete with within their own division. I've already stated why I don't like BC and Clemson. FSU is the only other team that i think halfway has the combination of coaching and players to win this divison of the ACC. But I don't like their odds (+215) nearly as well as NCST. Plus FSU also has a fairly tough schedule having to travel to North Carolina, with Clemson & WF back to back. NCST has only 4 road games all season. All nicely spread out. 3 out of their last 4 games will be played at home. 3 out of 4 of FSU's last games will be played on the road. I'm also not big on the QB situation at FSU. A position which has been their achilles heel for the last few years. I also wouldn't count NCST out on the road. They were a very good team at the end of the season. And they dealt a very good North Carolina team a pretty good spanking (41-10) on their home field. I think NCST is the real deal. And the best value on the board in the ACC. Heck, if NCST makes it to the ACC title game, I can also hedge a little if I think they are in over the heads against the tough Coastal Division winner.
The bottom line here is my plays in the Atlantic divison go hand in hand. If you think FSU or NCST are going to win this division, than I think the under 8.5 season win total for Clemson is an excellent bet. When you look at the end of the season results from the weaker divsions of all of the BCS conferences, the teams who came in second or below very seldom have more than 8 regular season wins.
The bottom line here is my plays in the Atlantic divison go hand in hand. If you think FSU or NCST are going to win this division, than I think the under 8.5 season win total for Clemson is an excellent bet. When you look at the end of the season results from the weaker divsions of all of the BCS conferences, the teams who came in second or below very seldom have more than 8 regular season wins.
way to look at things holistically GS...people get too wrapped up in "their gonna lose here or there or to them and them" and go game-by-game on the schedule...just rate the team and go by your ranking...are they a top 3 team in the conference?? how about bottom 3..?? that's all you need to know, if your analysis is right then the schedule won't matter...2006 UF had the toughest sched in the ncaa and won the title...last yr the steelers had mathematically the toughest sched in the nfl and season wins were 9.5...doesn't matter how tough your schedule is if you got the best team...
:toast:
way to look at things holistically GS...people get too wrapped up in "their gonna lose here or there or to them and them" and go game-by-game on the schedule...just rate the team and go by your ranking...are they a top 3 team in the conference?? how about bottom 3..?? that's all you need to know, if your analysis is right then the schedule won't matter...2006 UF had the toughest sched in the ncaa and won the title...last yr the steelers had mathematically the toughest sched in the nfl and season wins were 9.5...doesn't matter how tough your schedule is if you got the best team...
:toast:
Good call on Mizzou! If they win 8 games Pinkel should be coach of the year. I say they have a 98% chance of losing to Texas, 95 % chance of losing to Oklahoma St., and a 75% chance of losing to Illinois. That leaves only one more game on their entire schedule that they could lose for the over bet to come in. Nevada will be looking for payback from the beatdown Mizzou gave them last year and that will be a Friday night ESPN telecast and one of the biggest game's in Nevada's school history. Not to mention that Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska will all be much better this season. 6 wins and a bowl game will be a good year for my Tigers, 7 wins would be a very good season given how young they are, and 8 wins unreal(everything would have to fall into place for that to happen).
CoolBreeze...Even though I think Mizzou stays under the wins total, I don't think they are going to be as bad as people think this year. The reason why is because of the upperclassmen and senior leadership that they'll have returning on defense. I think they actually improve on that side of the ball, but fall quite a bit early on in their offensive production. It's going to take their new QB and WR's some time to get on the same page. But they'll have a VHT QB that is physically much more gifted than Chase Daniel was. I have a feeling that what will happen with the Tigers is they'll have a weak first half of the season under new offensive players and coordinators. But their second half of the season will be better, and they'll probably cover more of their games. Look for things to start clicking for them around the time they play Texas in late October. This could be a good spot for Mizzou since we know they'll be getting a significant amount of points in that game, plus Texas will be coming off what will probably be the most hard fought Red River shootout in years. I expect a little bit of a hangover for the Horns in that game. I look for the Tigers to go either 6-6 or 7-5 this season depending on how fast their offense comes together. This was probably not the smartest futures bet for me to make because of the high juice. But if I see that this team is coming together earlier than expected, I'll make up for it in my ATS plays during the season. BOL this year :toast:
Good points about Mizzou. I defaulted them to taking a real step back because they lose a huge guy in Chase Daniel, and well its Mizzou, not Florida or whatever, they can't replace that very easily. But then you look and here's a guy who was a 5 star just a few years ago and has had some time in the system. Granted, Chase Daniel was a whoknowswhat star who played like a 5 star and theres plenty of 5 stars who play like no stars. But this guy they have could end up being a star right away - why not?
