Gator...A friend of mine does the running dogs formula. I have a general idea how it works. But he's pretty thorough and always finds a few running dog teams that I missed. And he really breaks them down and gets into the ypc +/- part of the formula. I don't know if he wants to give these numbers out or not. I feel lucky just to be posting all of the running dogs. But if he gives me the formulas for some of these games I'll be happy to post them here for you guys.
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This first game coming up between Wake and Navy is a pretty tough one to cap. Here are a few notes on the game from various sources:
Turnovers were the culprit against the Midshipmen. Quarterback Riley Skinner threw four interceptions — he would have only three more picks the rest of the season — and Navy enjoyed a 6-2 advantage in turnovers.
SCOUTING THE DEFENSE: Wake was one of the more opportunistic defenses in the country, forcing 35 turnovers, a national high, while losing only 19 for a turnover margin of plus-1.33 per game, tied for third in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Deacons also held opponents to only 116 yards a game rushing and held Virginia to a net of only 28. They kept their last two opponents, Boston College and Vanderbilt, both to under 240 yards total offense a game. Only three opponents (Ole Miss, Maryland, and Duke) topped 350 yards in total offense against the Deacons.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Wake's offensive line needs to have more success against Navy's defensive front. The Deacons ran for only a net 43 yards in the loss to Navy back in September. TB Brandon Pendergrass, a redshirt freshman who was playing in only his fourth game, ran for only 19 yards on seven carries but has assumed a bigger role for the Deacons in recent outings.
What's also really good for the Navy offense is having quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back on the field. He went down against Wake Forest when the teams played in September, but was back and looked strong against Army on Dec. 6.
Navy is leading the country in rushing, trying to win its fourth straight national rushing title, while Wake is 21st against the run. Wake is also good against the pass. Navy is 59th in the country in total offense, 48th in offensive scoring and 24th in the red zone, where Wake is tied for the next-to-last spot in the country on defense.
Navy must contain QB Riley Skinner, who had a dreadful game against the Mids back in September, and the Wake Forest offense. Wake in 84th in the nation in rushing, 100th in passing, 103rd in offense, 97th in scoring and tied for 89th in the red zone. Navy, on the other hand, is 31st against the run, 76th against the pass, 51st in overall defense, 37th in scoring defense and 18th in the red zone.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Wake has to figure out a way to handle the option attack. In the first game between the teams in September, Navy ran for 292 yards and the Mids really got the 1-2 punch of Shun White and Eric Kettani rolling in the rout of Army.
QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada — It's been an injury-riddled season for Kaheaku-Enhada, but with a few weeks of lighter-than-usual workouts to come, he's the key for Navy. No question, the Navy offense runs better, a lot better, when he's healthy and in there.
Here's the latest version of the ACC coaches ranking:
1. Jim Grobe -- If you can win at the smallest school in the BCS, you can win just about anywhere. Not having Sam Swank or a dependable offensive line was the Deacs' problem this season. They're still headed to a bowl game, though, and it's the first time in school history Wake Forest has been to three straight bowls. This year's group of seniors is the winningest senior class in school history at 31-19.
Article on Navy QB: http://www2.journalnow.com/content/2008/dec/11/naval-intelligence/sports-college-football/
Turnovers were the culprit against the Midshipmen. Quarterback Riley Skinner threw four interceptions — he would have only three more picks the rest of the season — and Navy enjoyed a 6-2 advantage in turnovers.
SCOUTING THE DEFENSE: Wake was one of the more opportunistic defenses in the country, forcing 35 turnovers, a national high, while losing only 19 for a turnover margin of plus-1.33 per game, tied for third in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Deacons also held opponents to only 116 yards a game rushing and held Virginia to a net of only 28. They kept their last two opponents, Boston College and Vanderbilt, both to under 240 yards total offense a game. Only three opponents (Ole Miss, Maryland, and Duke) topped 350 yards in total offense against the Deacons.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Wake's offensive line needs to have more success against Navy's defensive front. The Deacons ran for only a net 43 yards in the loss to Navy back in September. TB Brandon Pendergrass, a redshirt freshman who was playing in only his fourth game, ran for only 19 yards on seven carries but has assumed a bigger role for the Deacons in recent outings.
What's also really good for the Navy offense is having quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back on the field. He went down against Wake Forest when the teams played in September, but was back and looked strong against Army on Dec. 6.
Navy is leading the country in rushing, trying to win its fourth straight national rushing title, while Wake is 21st against the run. Wake is also good against the pass. Navy is 59th in the country in total offense, 48th in offensive scoring and 24th in the red zone, where Wake is tied for the next-to-last spot in the country on defense.
Navy must contain QB Riley Skinner, who had a dreadful game against the Mids back in September, and the Wake Forest offense. Wake in 84th in the nation in rushing, 100th in passing, 103rd in offense, 97th in scoring and tied for 89th in the red zone. Navy, on the other hand, is 31st against the run, 76th against the pass, 51st in overall defense, 37th in scoring defense and 18th in the red zone.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Wake has to figure out a way to handle the option attack. In the first game between the teams in September, Navy ran for 292 yards and the Mids really got the 1-2 punch of Shun White and Eric Kettani rolling in the rout of Army.
QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada — It's been an injury-riddled season for Kaheaku-Enhada, but with a few weeks of lighter-than-usual workouts to come, he's the key for Navy. No question, the Navy offense runs better, a lot better, when he's healthy and in there.
Here's the latest version of the ACC coaches ranking:
1. Jim Grobe -- If you can win at the smallest school in the BCS, you can win just about anywhere. Not having Sam Swank or a dependable offensive line was the Deacs' problem this season. They're still headed to a bowl game, though, and it's the first time in school history Wake Forest has been to three straight bowls. This year's group of seniors is the winningest senior class in school history at 31-19.
Article on Navy QB: http://www2.journalnow.com/content/2008/dec/11/naval-intelligence/sports-college-football/
A couple other things about the Navy/Wake game. I feel that since Wake's defense has been somewhat gashed by the Navy running game the last two years, that Grobe will change his schemes up a little on defense this time around. I also don't see Riley Skinner ever playing that bad again as he did in the first meeting between these teams. Also, Grobe has a good bowl record. And this has all come against BCS teams. Navy is the first non BCS team that Wake has faced in a bowl game under Grobe. This is also the least amount of points that Navy is getting against a BCS team in a bowl game. Something I read yesterday about the ACC in general. The conference is getting portrayed by the media as a weak conference this year. And word has spread down the grapevine to each ACC bowl team. So I look for these teams to come out in these bowl games with a little bit of a chip on their shoulders with something to prove. So this alone could be a motivational factor in these games.
I think not having Beckman at DC is going to be a distraction. Gundy is a coach who completely seperates his offensive and defensive duties. I don't know if anyone has ever noticed, but when the defense is on the field, Gundy goes and sits on the bench and works out his offensive plays. He doesn't even pay attention to what his defense is doing, because he had so much trust in Beckman. I'm not sure how competent the assistant DC is. But Beckman was a big voice on that defense. That's why he's now a head coach. So we'll just have to see how it goes. I haven't really looked at this game in depth. But despite what people are saying about this game and how many points are going to be scored, it's still all about who can run the ball better and make one or two more stops on defense. And just looking at the numbers on paper, Oregon looks like the play. Plus I have a feeling that after the Pac-10 lost this game last year, and Oregon lost it to OU last time they were in the Holiday Bowl, that the Ducks and the crowd will be very fired up for this game.
I am definitely taking Wake Forest. They were favored by 17 points in the first contest with Navy this year. Now they are only favored by 3 points. Tremendous shift in line value in favor of the Demon Deacons. Don't forget that this is the same Navy team that Notre Dame pushed around for 3.75 quarters....
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy **
I like Wake for all of the reasons I stated in the thread. And even though I don't take revenge into high regard in capping games, it still remains somewhat of a factor in a team making amends for the way they played in the first game back in Septemeber. Keep in mind that Wake played a very uncharacteristic game that day with Skinner throwing 4 picks. Combine that with Wake LT Birdsong getting ejected from the game, which helped contribute to Wake's poor rushing performance, and you get a team that lost their mojo both on offense and defense. Even at that, with Navy up 17-0 at half, it still ended up a 24-17 game. We're talking about a BCS team that has gone from being 16 point favorites to just 3 point favorites against a non-BCS team on a neutral field, based on one bad performance. So Wake has gained a lot of line value here. I hate to go against my "running dogs" system, but keep in mind that teams like Navy and Air Force, as long as the other team is favored, are always going to be running dogs in their games because they are exclusive running teams. And in this case I just don't think Navy is getting enough points against a BCS team to be considered a play on team. I also like the coaching matchup here. And I feel Grobe will change some of his defensive schemes around and shut down the Navy run a little better in this game. Another thing I like is Wake is a senior dominated team, especially on defense, playing in their final game. And this should also help their motivation in this game.
I like Wake for all of the reasons I stated in the thread. And even though I don't take revenge into high regard in capping games, it still remains somewhat of a factor in a team making amends for the way they played in the first game back in Septemeber. Keep in mind that Wake played a very uncharacteristic game that day with Skinner throwing 4 picks. Combine that with Wake LT Birdsong getting ejected from the game, which helped contribute to Wake's poor rushing performance, and you get a team that lost their mojo both on offense and defense. Even at that, with Navy up 17-0 at half, it still ended up a 24-17 game. We're talking about a BCS team that has gone from being 16 point favorites to just 3 point favorites against a non-BCS team on a neutral field, based on one bad performance. So Wake has gained a lot of line value here. I hate to go against my "running dogs" system, but keep in mind that teams like Navy and Air Force, as long as the other team is favored, are always going to be running dogs in their games because they are exclusive running teams. And in this case I just don't think Navy is getting enough points against a BCS team to be considered a play on team. I also like the coaching matchup here. And I feel Grobe will change some of his defensive schemes around and shut down the Navy run a little better in this game. Another thing I like is Wake is a senior dominated team, especially on defense, playing in their final game. And this should also help their motivation in this game.
GS, If I didn't have the avatar next to my name, would you still not answer the questions? These are all valid questions. GS, I've been asking you these questions for a week now and you've failed to answer them for some reason, or for that matter, failed to acknowledge them. Why? Because of my avatar? Your breakdown of the Florida defense and how OU will exploit them makes NO sense, due to how Texas dominated OU's offensive line. Florida's D-line is tons better than Texas, along with their linebacking core. Look at the questions again. If you don't want to answer because it isn't good news for your team, so be it. OU's gonna get mudholed for these exact reasons. Or if you don't want to because you don't have a bet on the game, that's okay too. We usually have great, open discussions on all games, but because some idiots think there's "bitterness", we're not going to have open discussions on the National Championship? Sounds silly. BOL all. And GS, you say you're not gonna talk about a game that happened two months ago, yet you freely bring up Florida's loss to Ole Miss? That seemed quite a while back too? Just sayin'......
Good Luck GS
Looking forward to your observations again this year. I am with you in hoping Stoops finally has a good BCS Bowl game.
Was glad to see you had Nebraska as a running dog. I really like their chances. DE Turner was a loss but Potter at the other end has been playing great lately and Suh in the middle has become a monster. LB's are still a bit of concern, but I think Pelini will develop a scheme to help in that area and they get their best linebacker dillard back close to 100%. I figured a lot of people would use the Va Tech game as an argument for why Clemson would win this game. NU played terriable in that game and had a couple of tough calls go against them at the end of that and still had a shot to win it (along with giving two turnovers to none). In that game they couldn't run the ball a lick and gave up trying. As you said, their offense is much different now and playing much better. I think it comes down to can Clemson's offense outscore NU's and I do not think that will happen based upon Clemson's offense.
I had a question for you, it is widely assumed by most that the Big XII does not play very good defense and that is based upon the yards given up. I think the defenses are not that bad (at least most) and that the yards given up are a result of the great spread offenses and qb's that are in the Big XII. I was curious on your thoughts about the top 5 or 6 defenses in the Big XII an how they compare to the other conferences top defenses?
Looking forward to your observations again this year. I am with you in hoping Stoops finally has a good BCS Bowl game.
Was glad to see you had Nebraska as a running dog. I really like their chances. DE Turner was a loss but Potter at the other end has been playing great lately and Suh in the middle has become a monster. LB's are still a bit of concern, but I think Pelini will develop a scheme to help in that area and they get their best linebacker dillard back close to 100%. I figured a lot of people would use the Va Tech game as an argument for why Clemson would win this game. NU played terriable in that game and had a couple of tough calls go against them at the end of that and still had a shot to win it (along with giving two turnovers to none). In that game they couldn't run the ball a lick and gave up trying. As you said, their offense is much different now and playing much better. I think it comes down to can Clemson's offense outscore NU's and I do not think that will happen based upon Clemson's offense.
I had a question for you, it is widely assumed by most that the Big XII does not play very good defense and that is based upon the yards given up. I think the defenses are not that bad (at least most) and that the yards given up are a result of the great spread offenses and qb's that are in the Big XII. I was curious on your thoughts about the top 5 or 6 defenses in the Big XII an how they compare to the other conferences top defenses?
