McVeigh has actually been 1 of the least aggressive coaches in the league on 4th down, although he is 1 of the most aggressive coaches in other areas of the game.
https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-best...ers-kevin-stefanski-john-harbaugh-among-top-c
Pretty much any WP model is gonna have it in the double digits in favor of going for it in that spot though. Talking like 60-70% chance of winning vs 45-50%. So even when adding in subjective reasoning, it is just such a clear call.
| Yards to go (Tracking data) | Conversion probability |
|---|---|
| Fourth-and-inches (< 0.5 yds) | 77% |
| Fourth-and-1 (0.5 < 1.5 yds) | 72% |
| Fourth-and-2 (1.5 < 2.5 yds) | 59% |
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I'd like to see these numbers in end of game situations
I'm thinking much like going for two, those numbers begin to tail off
