Update from 1-30 to 2-5 ...
Murray - Djokovic Under 40.5 (W) 1-0 +1.15u
Richardo Mello -135 (W) 2-0 +1.8907u
Ivan Dodig -170 (W) 3-0 +2.4789u
Izak Van der Merwe +150 (W) 4-0 +3.9789u
Phillipp Petzschner -400 (W) 5-0 +4.2289u
Stephane Robert -175 (L) 5-1 +3.2289u
Fabio Fognini -175 (W) 6-1 +3.8003u
Phillipp Petzschner -625 (W) 7-1 +3.9603u
Karol Beck -125 (W) 8-1 +4.7603u
Karol Beck -160 (W) 9-1 +5.3853u
Igor Andreev -115 (L) 9-2 +4.3853u
Frank Dancevic -200 (W) 10-2 +4.8853u
Ivan Dodig +175 (W) 11-2 +6.6353u
Simon Greul -170 (L) 11-3 +5.6353u
Tommy Robredo -300 (W) 12-3 +5.9686u
Somdev Dev Varman 1st set +150 (W) 13-3 +7.4686u
Adrian Mannarino 1st set +147 (W) 14-3 +8.9386u
Year to date: 37-21-1 +17.3875u
Murray - Djokovic Under 40.5 (W) 1-0 +1.15u
Richardo Mello -135 (W) 2-0 +1.8907u
Ivan Dodig -170 (W) 3-0 +2.4789u
Izak Van der Merwe +150 (W) 4-0 +3.9789u
Phillipp Petzschner -400 (W) 5-0 +4.2289u
Stephane Robert -175 (L) 5-1 +3.2289u
Fabio Fognini -175 (W) 6-1 +3.8003u
Phillipp Petzschner -625 (W) 7-1 +3.9603u
Karol Beck -125 (W) 8-1 +4.7603u
Karol Beck -160 (W) 9-1 +5.3853u
Igor Andreev -115 (L) 9-2 +4.3853u
Frank Dancevic -200 (W) 10-2 +4.8853u
Ivan Dodig +175 (W) 11-2 +6.6353u
Simon Greul -170 (L) 11-3 +5.6353u
Tommy Robredo -300 (W) 12-3 +5.9686u
Somdev Dev Varman 1st set +150 (W) 13-3 +7.4686u
Adrian Mannarino 1st set +147 (W) 14-3 +8.9386u
Year to date: 37-21-1 +17.3875u
hey blue.. would you mind sharing some your tennis betting strategy (eg. the percentage that is handicapping vs line movement, Red flags, tennis information website you use)? I'd love to learn more about tennis betting and you seem like a good person to tap into. So if your willing to share some of your strategies please do so and if you prefer to communicate through private message feel free. Thx
Bet soft scalps with Pinnacle.
Monitor line sets such as Odds Portal using their "Value Bets" and "Dropping Odds" to find scalps / steam moves. I know absolutely nothing about the sport and don't believe in "capping", rather placing wagers on good prices. Unfortunately my limits are relatively low at these books, so I just bet the limit every time and say "to hell with Kelly Criterion".
The ML markets (MLB, NHL, Soccer, Tennis) are the most profitable sports by a landslide. Soccer is a headache because the 1x2 causes you to hit a low percentage, but if you stick with it you will make $$$ in the long run. Plus there's 7 soccer games on Saturday to every 1 CBB game, with the games often starting before or at 10:00 AM EST. Very easy to put your bankroll to use if you know how to bet it.
Monitor line sets such as Odds Portal using their "Value Bets" and "Dropping Odds" to find scalps / steam moves. I know absolutely nothing about the sport and don't believe in "capping", rather placing wagers on good prices. Unfortunately my limits are relatively low at these books, so I just bet the limit every time and say "to hell with Kelly Criterion".
The ML markets (MLB, NHL, Soccer, Tennis) are the most profitable sports by a landslide. Soccer is a headache because the 1x2 causes you to hit a low percentage, but if you stick with it you will make $$$ in the long run. Plus there's 7 soccer games on Saturday to every 1 CBB game, with the games often starting before or at 10:00 AM EST. Very easy to put your bankroll to use if you know how to bet it.
great info blue thanks!
So with the Ricardo Mello bet yesterday it really started to move, I saw it at -110 to -140 and towards match time I saw it at +105. You initially bought it at -110, did you see more people pushing towards Giraldo so you got out?
Let me see if I understand your “order of operations” so to speak. First you identify lines of value or dropping lines, then if the bet you placed odds move in your favor (-110 to -200) you’d keep your bet? If -110 moved to +120, youd sell and keep the scalping profit.
Also, when you say soft scalps what does that mean exactly?
Thanks for your insight, it truly helps!
So with the Ricardo Mello bet yesterday it really started to move, I saw it at -110 to -140 and towards match time I saw it at +105. You initially bought it at -110, did you see more people pushing towards Giraldo so you got out?
Let me see if I understand your “order of operations” so to speak. First you identify lines of value or dropping lines, then if the bet you placed odds move in your favor (-110 to -200) you’d keep your bet? If -110 moved to +120, youd sell and keep the scalping profit.
Also, when you say soft scalps what does that mean exactly?
Thanks for your insight, it truly helps!
When I played Mello yesterday at 11:58, the price at Pinnacle was +110 or greater on Giraldo. I could be wrong there ... but it was definitely +EV and I was anticipating a scalp after watching the market move. I went back at 15:30 to see that Giraldo had been moved to +110, with my book over adjusting to earlier action on Mello giving me -110 on Giraldo. At that time I realized that I had misread the market, and decided to get out of it and just get "juiced". The line closed at -169/+150 at Pinnacle, giving my price on Giraldo at -110 a 16.64% edge on what I have classified as "market price". Whereas my line on Mello at -110 gave the book a 25.73% edge seeing how the book would be receiving +110 on the other side. I bought back a winner, but I still believe it was the correct play at the time.
There are two sides for a scalp: the Pinnacle side and the soft side. Pinnacle has higher limits and lower juice than every other bookmaker in the industry. The theory I subscribe to is that scalpers would be giving back a good chunk of their profits by playing those numbers at Pinnacle. I trust that their lines are more accurate than anyone else's and there's no "value" there. When they move their numbers, the entire industry takes notice. Exchanges such as BetFair and Matchbook have nothing that is +EV on Pinnacle's number (after factoring in commission). Sites like, Sportsbook.com, Bodog, Sportsbetting.com which I use to bet Tennis have significantly smaller limits and much higher juice, meaning they're less confident with the numbers their book puts out there. That's what makes them the "soft side".
There are two sides for a scalp: the Pinnacle side and the soft side. Pinnacle has higher limits and lower juice than every other bookmaker in the industry. The theory I subscribe to is that scalpers would be giving back a good chunk of their profits by playing those numbers at Pinnacle. I trust that their lines are more accurate than anyone else's and there's no "value" there. When they move their numbers, the entire industry takes notice. Exchanges such as BetFair and Matchbook have nothing that is +EV on Pinnacle's number (after factoring in commission). Sites like, Sportsbook.com, Bodog, Sportsbetting.com which I use to bet Tennis have significantly smaller limits and much higher juice, meaning they're less confident with the numbers their book puts out there. That's what makes them the "soft side".
