Pinnacle (and SBO Bet) usually have the most confident numbers for Soccer. BetFair gets good liquidity, however if you track their numbers long enough you'll discover that nothing there is +EV to Pinny's price, similar to Matchbook. The exchanges are essentially Pinny's no-vig price.
Anywho, here's how you calculate . . . you really should learn how to incorporate these into excel so you could do this on the fly. There's 4x as many soccer games on some Saturdays as there are CBB. And they're almost all over by noon ET.
1. Current Odds for Arsenal - Man City tomorrow at Pinny...
-116 / +284 / 351
2. Percentages...
Arsenal W = 116/(100+116) = 0.537
Draw = 100/(100+284) = 0.260
Man City W = 100/(100+351) = 0.221
3. No-vig percentages...
0.537+0.260+0.221 = 1.018
0.537 / 1.018 = 0.527
0.260 / 1.018 = 0.255
0.221 / 1.018 = 0.217
4. Your book's line....
-110 / +250 / +300
5. Repeat Step 2...
Arsenal W = 110/(100+110) = 0.523
Draw = 100/(100+250) = 0.285
Man City W = 100/(100+300) = 0.25
6. Edge calculation (my sig)
((0.527 / 0.523)-1)*100 = 0.764%
((0.255 / 0.285)-1)*100 = -10.526%
(( 0.217 / 0.25)-1)*100 = -13.2%
7. Edge structuring...
Bet TO WIN 0.764% of your bankroll on Arsenal -110 at "your book".
Additional notes...
Risk of Ruin
Full Kelly: 13.53%
Half Kelly: 1.83%
2/5th Kelly: 0.67%
3/10th Kelly: 0.13%
1/5th Kelly: 0.00%
You won't lose $$$ on 1/5th Kelly, but it will take a massive bankroll or thousands of bets to make some serious $$$.
Didn't see a number on either side that looked playable. Closed +154/-167 at Pinny which was the best price on both sides. Unless I can get something better than +166 or -155 I won't touch it.
It's pretty dry right now . . . might not have any plays till Monday as the card gets exponentially smaller as the week goes on. Plus my trigger book (listed in Post #1) isn't putting out a ton of numbers.
It's pretty dry right now . . . might not have any plays till Monday as the card gets exponentially smaller as the week goes on. Plus my trigger book (listed in Post #1) isn't putting out a ton of numbers.
WTA Sydney
Aravane Rezai +140
Record from 1/2 to 1/8...
Bondarenko +125 (W) 1-0 +1.25u
Peer -175 (L) 1-1 +0.25u
Goerges -250 (W) 2-1 +0.65u
Garcia-Lopez -200 (W) 3-1 +1.15u
Kohlschreiber -185 (L) 3-2 +0.15u
Garcia Lopez & Kohlschreiber Parlay +130 (L) 3-3 -0.85u
Tipsarevic -150 (W) 4-3 -0.18335u
Year to date: 4-3 -0.18335u
Aravane Rezai +140
Record from 1/2 to 1/8...
Bondarenko +125 (W) 1-0 +1.25u
Peer -175 (L) 1-1 +0.25u
Goerges -250 (W) 2-1 +0.65u
Garcia-Lopez -200 (W) 3-1 +1.15u
Kohlschreiber -185 (L) 3-2 +0.15u
Garcia Lopez & Kohlschreiber Parlay +130 (L) 3-3 -0.85u
Tipsarevic -150 (W) 4-3 -0.18335u
Year to date: 4-3 -0.18335u
