Give up just ONE secret on how you make money gambling

[X-Files]

Beware of scumbag lying touts.

And avoid.

Exposing sports betting touts:

https://www.google.com/search?q=exp...hUKEwiPzf-Dn4LyAhVFsZ4KHRvmCw4Q4dUDCA8&uact=5

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLExCeyAgQXcFpCOt6MZHIpr8GGOUKGWbc

 

[X-Files]

Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sportsbetting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a horrible thing either – if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going belly up and bettors would run out of places to play.

Many bettors really don’t seem to care very much about earning a long term profit. They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these types of bettors are far more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or the NCAA Tournament.
Much of the industry jargon considers money management as important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around buzzwords like ‘money management’ and describing esoteric concepts like ‘isolate a percentage of bankroll’ and ‘positive expectation bets’ really doesn’t help the fortunes of most recreational bettors.
If you, personally, are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than this essay will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be a successful sports bettor, even as an amateur, and earn a profit from your betting over an extended period of time, here are some tips that should help you in that quest.
Don’t bet into bad numbers
Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the average college basketball Saturday, for example, there are at least ? dozen games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. If he bet on the game, the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every one of those decisions. He’ll either be getting the push when others lost, or he’ll get the win when others pushed. (I use ‘he’ because, to be honest, every professional sports bettor that I know is a man – this is a very segregated industry in that regard).
The pro will take the extra time to shop around for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He’ll have accounts that are funded in enough places to ensure that when he finds the line that he is looking for, he’ll be able to place the bet. He’ll have an idea of which direction the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late, depending on which time offers an advantageous number.
The pro wins by a half point far more often than he loses by the hook. Making a modest 20 bets a week (1000 a year, a number that is on the low side for most professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers. Assuming the bettor is betting a modest 2% of his bankroll on any given play, those 20 or 30 favorable decisions translates into a 40-60% swing in his return on his sportsbetting investment. That’s not chump change, folks, it’s hard earned profit gained one half point at a time!
Make more straight bets and fewer parlays
Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets as straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is closer to 50:50, and there are many, many amateurs who rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro’s bread and butter.
Professionals are satisfied with the return on investment from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in it for the long haul, not always looking for the quick score that parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big paydays that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will be even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide even in a good overall season.
Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town. That’s not to say pro bettors never go for the longshot score, but when they do, they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their bankroll, and they do it in conjunction with their straight bets, not in lieu of them.
Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores
It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false assumptions. This team got killed; that team gave ‘em all they could handle. But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really have no idea of what took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are examining are in.
It’s key to handicap games again, after the games are over. What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise? Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an anomaly?
Here’s an example. The Pistons play the Cavs at home, as nine point favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the box score, it’s clear that Detroit dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the rebounding battle and forced Cleveland into turnovers. They led by double digits at halftime and after three quarters. But the Cavs hit some late shots in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game was.
On that same night, the Wizards are nine point favorites to the Raptors, and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box score here indicates a whole different story. The Wizards trailed throughout this game, but got hot in the 4th quarter to steal the win. Washington made an uncharacteristic 27-30 from the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Toronto shot just 4-19 in the 4th quarter.
By examining the box scores you can recognize that the Pistons are in better form than the Wizards. Your expanded knowledge of how the two games with the same final score actually played makes your future wagers involving those teams more likely to be successful.
Take advantage of value
Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. And amateur bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with ‘public’ teams, betting them over and over again.
In college sports, these ‘public’ teams are usually in the Top 25, from a major conference – well known schools. In the pro sports, they are the hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective divisions or conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many of the best teams in the country, and either bet against many of the good teams or pass on their games entirely.
Instead, the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the ‘good but not great’ type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should only be getting four.
It’s equally important to recognize when the linesmakers have priced you out of a play. The Mavericks and the Suns have been red hot in the NBA for the last months. While few bettors of any ilk like to step in front of juggernauts like these, they also recognize that the time to back these two squads has come and gone – there’s no value on their respective sides now that the linesmakers and bettors have finally made the necessary adjustments.
Be smart when betting your streaks.
It’s one of the most common mistakes that amateurs make, and it’s quite possibly the most costly. Amateurs press their losses, raising the stakes to get back to even off a losing week/streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when you lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few and far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody.
Rather than raising the stakes during a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. There’s no ‘double or nothing’ attitude on Monday Night Football games for the pro.
Conversely, the pro knows that winning streaks are the time to press your bets, not the time to pull back with a conservative approach to their recent profit. When a ‘capper is in good form and good rhythm, with his read on the games in solid form and the bounces generally falling in his direction, he’s not afraid to raise his stakes a bit, making larger plays when the percentages are in his favor (positive expectation wagers). It sounds so basic – don’t chase losses, ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors are able to maintain an even keel during periods of higher rates than the norm of both successes and of failures.

..................

 

[X-Files]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=627933

 

[Dr.Love]

I wait until Fishhead actually takes a position BEFORE the game and posts a play. Which is very, very rare.

Then I fade.

Goldmine.

 

[carlitosway]

I wait until Fishhead actually takes a position BEFORE the game and posts a play. Which is very, very rare.

Then I fade.

Goldmine.

What about the MIA Justin Cruise?

 

[Dr.Love]

What about the MIA Justin Cruise?

That's a goldmine too. And gives WAY more often. When he's around.

 

[carlitosway]

That's a goldmine too. And gives WAY more often. When he's around.

Yeah I hadn't picked upon his mushness to take advantage, fuck me!

 

[Bozzie]

What about the MIA Justin Cruise?

Is he the dude who's has "Genetics" on his side? He's a good fade.

 

[X-Files]

"The less you bet in an optimistic situation, the more you lose when you win."

 

[X-Files]

"I would suggest to always bet small in terms of Roll % (no more than 1% of Roll).*
* this advice is not for professional punters, they don't need my advice."

 

[powerz]

I read through this post and I don't think I saw this referenced but, Betting the opening line is the way to bet with the oddsmaker.

Make your own line and when you agree with the oddsmaker take it - the money may move the line throughout the day and or week and then the closing line line loses.

Or if the line moves against you number wait for the close to get the best possible go against - you will be betting against teh public here.

The key is to have your own # before you look at the oddsmaker #

Try it, or track it you be amazed at the results

 

[SmallDaddy]

You can have all my secrets. As a matter of fact I can list them right now...

1.
2.
3.

 

[Biggins]

Never bet a horse from Caliente lol

 

[X-Files]

"I would say never bet big but every generalization is false, including this one. Rule of thumb is to Position size based on perceived edge."...

"For Instance, Mayweather v. McGregor. The question was never, 'Who to bet," but rather, "How much to bet." How big do you bet perhaps one of the biggest edge of your life?

Do you go Full Kelly? Choose a high multiple? Just say fuck it and bet 10% of your roll? I think you would be nuts to bet 10% of your roll on anything but guys sharper than me probably did."...

"I didn't even want to bet this but my 49% Partner and 2W2P2S talked me into it... not in the sense that I didn't recognize the massive value but rather I had to give up saying, "I haven't made a bet in 10 fucking years." For a pretentious fuck like me, that wasn't an easy decision "

 

[raiders72]

Fade the public in huge TV games where public money has to be respected. There could be too much exposure for a book not move the line. Keep balances in bitcoin.

 

[Biggins]

How about a team playing on Monday Night Football playing on the road off a short week. Don’t know the stats on that but have heard tell it’s a good fade. And I’ll reiterate what I typed in this thread already. Never bet a road favorite coming off a strait up road win.

 

[ninjatactics]

Dope your wife with pills and edibles and steal a $20 out of her purse.

Hit Daily double at OTB then roll $20 in $40.

Risk $40 on 2 team par at book. Boom HIT

then hit Your dealer for a little powder by 10:30pm

rinse n repeat and you will hit your bankroll for pigskin this fall.

using ninjatactics

 

[Michelangelo]

Dope your wife with pills and edibles and steal a $20 out of her purse.

Hit Daily double at OTB then roll $20 in $40.

Risk $40 on 2 team par at book. Boom HIT

then hit Your dealer for a little powder by 10:30pm

rinse n repeat and you will hit your bankroll for pigskin this fall.

using ninjatactics

haha

A gambler's plan.

 

[X-Files]

"I would say never bet big but every generalization is false, including this one. Rule of thumb is to Position size based on perceived edge."...

"For Instance, Mayweather v. McGregor. The question was never, 'Who to bet," but rather, "How much to bet." How big do you bet perhaps one of the biggest edge of your life?

Do you go Full Kelly? Choose a high multiple? Just say fuck it and bet 10% of your roll? I think you would be nuts to bet 10% of your roll on anything but guys sharper than me probably did."...

"I didn't even want to bet this but my 49% Partner and 2W2P2S talked me into it... not in the sense that I didn't recognize the massive value but rather I had to give up saying, "I haven't made a bet in 10 fucking years." For a pretentious fuck like me, that wasn't an easy decision "

"The one-off events like Mayweather-McGregor or Olympic competitions seem like the best opportunities for gamblers who want to pump up their bet size.
My favorite one-off event was the foot race between Charles Barkley and longtime NBA ref Dick Bavetta in which the world-class athlete Barkley crushed the old man.
Of course, one could argue every sporting event (even rematches) is a "one-off event," a game or race never to be contested again under today's conditions.
As for my personal betting, I'm more of a grinder than a plunger.
I appreciate your defensive posture and I sometimes take that route, especially when struggling.
One defensive position I'll sometimes take is to pursue wagers where there's a good chance of a win/push (+3 in the NFL, under 9 in MLB or MLB live wagering, etc.).
But I'm at my best when I let my hands fly.
Wagers that jump off the screen and require little or no deliberation are the propositions I seek.
A "snap call" is used mostly by poker players, but I think sports bettors understand the term as well."

 

[X-Files]

"I'm from the school of, "Whatever Works," as many roads lead to Rome."


"And, of course, "snap bets" are the product of doing the work.
You have to be an information hawk/dedicated researcher/market hound to whatever factors you value the most."